Not to add to your stress level, but they can be both seller and buyer with an eye toward next season.
What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
Even against bad teams, 18-20 wins out of 26 isn't necessarily a slam dunk. However, if it happens along with the current pace against the rest of their opponents, we're talking about 86-88 wins; which I'd have to say is the current roster's ceiling.
This is really what they should be, especially if they’re within a couple games of the last wild card spot. Just go for value, whether it’s buying or selling.
That being said, they shouldn’t sell for lottery tickets in that scenario. If they can get genuine talent back, go for it. But if they’re doing both I don’t want to see selling that nets low minors flyers. I’m that case then just go all in on selling.
Curious what you all think of Alcantara from Miami.... . he's been a great pitcher through his career but is really struggling this year- walking a lot more. But he's 27 and has one more year on his contract... as a potential buy-low trade target. If he was a target last offseason, he likely would have cost a Mayer or Rafaela but wondering if he could now be had for something like Dalbec and Murphy?
No way has his price dropped down to that, which is essentially two half-torn lottery tickets. Whatever you think is going on with him ("bicep soreness" sounds like his arm may be breaking down), someone will top that.
Alcantara is signed pretty cheaply through 2026 with a 2027 club option.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/marlins-extend-sandy-alcantara-five-years.html
Alcantara is signed through 2026 with an option for 2027. And at an incredibly good rate (minimum 3/45, max 4/64 remaining). His FIP is 3.76. There's not a chance that his stock is low enough to get him with Dalbec and Murphy.
Not to keep piling on, but the Marlins are currently having their best season since 2003, even if he's struggling I would guess they wouldn't consider moving him unless he has thoracic outlet syndrome or something.
I didn't see the contract extension and thought he was still on his rookie contract (6 years) and in his 2nd arb year. My miss. Looking at his peripheral stats it seems he's likely due to start getting better, but that walk rate isn't fluky.
I'm a seller at this point to position the team next year and for the next 1-3 years around the margins. Trade any and all veterans that can help a contender and who Chaim does not consider part of equation for next 2-3 years (Kike, Arroyo, Turner, Duvall, Jansen, Pivetta). As noted above, even if the team rips off 16 out of 20 against the dregs, that doesn't put them squarely in solid position to take a WC position, particularly with the remainder of the schedule against the stronger teams. This is not the year IMO, so it's time to make next year more likely to be.
Agree with this. I keep reading "when everybody is healthy, we'll gain ground" posts on this board, which is a) unlikely to happy because others will get hurt and b) sounds too much like last year and even 2021 (maybe because Sale is so much of the equation).
I also wonder what's going to happen with Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Paxton come September. If they're healthy, they're going to be getting up there in innings (Houck less so, I suppose) so do they start wearing down or does the team shut them down at some point (hard to do if we're actually competing for something)? And if they're not healthy, we'll we're not going to be competitive anyway.
Yeah, good point @Philip Jeff Frye - the problem with all these young arms is that they'll likely hit innings limits at the end of the year. Then what? Great question.
There shouldn't be innings limits on anyone. Bello pitched 154 innings last year. Whitlock and Houck are both 27 and should be ready to pitch a full starter's load. And I've never heard of limiting innings coming off of TJ surgery, so Paxton should be able to go as much as he feels like he can.
Bello threw over 150 innings last year (96 in the minors, 57 in the bigs), so he should be good to go. He's at 66 now and with ~90 team games left, that's roughly 17-18 additional starts. At 6 innings a pop, that would put him in the 170 total inning range. Totally doable.
With a similar pace for Whitlock, that would put him right around 150 innings. Also not an outlandish total. Crawford, if he manages to stay in the rotation long-term, would be on pace for ~130 or so innings. Not a big leap when he threw just over 100 last season.
Paxton I think you ride him into the ground. He's a veteran on an expiring contract so there's nothing to save him for. Maybe he wears down, but I think you rely on the veteran knowing how to pace himself.
With a similar pace for Whitlock, that would put him right around 150 innings. Also not an outlandish total. Crawford, if he manages to stay in the rotation long-term, would be on pace for ~130 or so innings. Not a big leap when he threw just over 100 last season.
Paxton I think you ride him into the ground. He's a veteran on an expiring contract so there's nothing to save him for. Maybe he wears down, but I think you rely on the veteran knowing how to pace himself.
Agree completely, but I would characterise it more like getting whiplash. Or being played.
I wonder if it’s Cora’s time too?
This team has some good parts, but it has poor defense, and a question on management, coaching and attitude ("The roster is the roster...")
At this point last year the Red Sox were 44-35. And in 2nd place in the division - and at that after a rough 2-4 week.
Maybe Bloom should consider whether Varitek (Gedman, even Johnny from Foxboro High) could do it better.
I fully agree with the bolded. Instead of a rental for the rest this season I would prefer a piece that might be able to contribute next season as well, but as with all of these decisions so much depends on where the teams stands after another 5 weeks of play. I see next season as the season that will define Bloom's tenure here. A foundation is being laid. Bello, Houck and Whitlock look to be the future of the rotation. Devers has been locked up long term. Yoshida will be here for another 4 seasons. Wong looks to be at the very least the strong side of a platoon. Verdugo is in the fold for a few more years and is rounding into a very good every day player. Casas (fingers crossed) is starting to find himself offensively. Rafaela has been promoted to WOOstah and of course there are high hopes for Mayer. Bloom's going to have to thread the needle a bit when it comes to determining when it's time to bring up Rafaela and Mayer, he might also have to make the tough call on moving a chip or two IF the right player is made available to him, but IMO he should be looking buy with an eye toward rounding out anticipated needs for next season.
Last year they did this and ended up with a solid catcher who had 4+ years of club control, their current 10th and 14th ranked prospect (according to soxprospects), and a couple of solid vets in an attempt to stay in the WC race. The price was a FA-to-be catcher who was worse than the guy they acquired any a guy who the Sox would have been on the hook for 4.5 mil this year, who has already been waived. If they repeat that, it will be unqualified success.
Yes, they sold Vazquez to get two prospects. They sold Diekman to get a solid catcher. ... Buying Pham and not getting under the cap was what lead to the sigh.
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Yeah... they have up the immortal Nic Northcutt in the Pham deal. The 24 y/o has 5 walks & 52 strikeouts in AA Chattanooga this year (8 homers, .767 OPS).
I think it was more about the cash they paid Pham, and JBJ last year that was less than ideal. Lot of money for really negative production- avoid those moves and you’d have been under. Of course, if Hamilton and / or Binelas are useful, maybe it’s a net positive eventually.
The biggest thing with potentially trading guys this year is- what are they looking for? The annual dreaded looming 40-man roster crunch could actually be even more real this year, so you have to take that calculus into consideration into any potential moves.
Good timing. I finally finished my opus on the 40-man roster a few minutes ago. Phone posting is hard.
But cash doesn't matter much if you plan on being under the tax the next year anyway. Acquiring Pham, in isolation, didn't change anything. But not having a 3rd actual outfielder last year from d1 has been my biggest beef with the entire Bloom regime (besides not trading Pivetta this past off season of course).
Spotrac has them $17.5 M under the cap. I would happy if they jettisoned a couple players who add little or no value and pickup a couple more prospects. If they're not 5 -10 games over .500 by late July, any run will like be too little, too late. And I'm confident Bloom will trade accordingly. But I don't he'll have a fire sale unless they're 5 or more under .500.
So, I'd like him to buy if 5 over, pickup a prospect or 2 if -5 to 5, and fire sale if > -5, and stay under the cap regardless.
So, I'd like him to buy if 5 over, pickup a prospect or 2 if -5 to 5, and fire sale if > -5, and stay under the cap regardless.
The Red Sox Payroll guy has them at about $6m under.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1672649668067565569
I've thought the truth was in between those 2 #s all year, but who knows?
I agree with so much of this.
My take on the team here about 80 games in is pretty much exactly what I thought they'd be, right down to an injured Chris Sale (though to be fair, I thought Paxton would be injured again by this point as well). They are around .500, last place in the division, within a few games of the wild card spots but not good enough to really contend for much of anything.
What I'm optimistic about is the way they've gotten here. Bello has been the ace of the staff (2.1 bWAR), Whitlock, Houck and to a lesser extent Crawford have shown - if nothing else - reasonable projection that they can be parts of the rotation for the 2025-2030 core. On the offensive side, 4 of the top 5 in terms of bWAR are under control for next year (at minimum), and all are 29 or younger, with "old man" Yoshida being the outlier even there.
I truly hope that for the next several months, Bloom is actively trying to sell literally everyone that isn't under contract for 2024 - or selling those whom there is a more intriguing option in the high minors - and getting the most you can in terms of pieces that will be here for 2024 (and beyond). This means actively looking to move Paxton, Turner, Duvall, Arroyo, Hernandez and (if anyone will either give you good prospects paying the full freight or will give you nothing but foot most of the bill) Sale. I'd also try and see if they can sell high on Martin and would at least listen on Winckowski (but there you only sell if someone will give up something much more valuable).
Of those, Duvall, Arroyo and Hernandez I'd basically move regardless of the return to give time to younger players.
On guys like Paxton and Turner, actively try to find good future value for them, but only pull the trigger if you do. IE, would LAD with all their pitching injuries consider moving someone like Frasso and Bruns for Paxton. Might SF consider giving up Whisenhunt for Turner and Hernandez.
However, then look to add with some of what I'm sure will be the coming 40 man roster crunch that others have alluded to and @JM3 outlined in that thread, and targeting pieces that will be under control in 2024.
*As to the bolded, Verdugo is only under control for one more year. I agree completely that he has rounded into a good every day player, and he's one I'd hope the Sox extend now. He seems open to it, and I think it would be a good move. However, he's only under control through next season.
What would Verdugo fetch in a trade right now? He wouldn't be a one-year rental, since he's under control through the 2024 season. He's currently at 2.8 bWAR with a 126 ops+. The last five years he's got a slash line of .291/.348/.440/.787, 111 ops+. He's a really nice player. No doubt he would be worth something substantial to a contending team if the Sox wanted to move him.
The reason to move him would be to shed future salary - not because he costs a lot now but because he will likely cost a pretty penny for his next contract. I am not sure the Sox will want to pay $25m a year for a guy who isn't a star. I don't think moving Verdugo would only bring back lottery tickets. I think he'd bring back something really nice and young with serious upside.
The reason to move him would be to shed future salary - not because he costs a lot now but because he will likely cost a pretty penny for his next contract. I am not sure the Sox will want to pay $25m a year for a guy who isn't a star. I don't think moving Verdugo would only bring back lottery tickets. I think he'd bring back something really nice and young with serious upside.
Verdugo is a very solid player, but he’s a corner OF with little power or speed, not sure he’s generally the kind of player contending teams give up a ton for at the deadline. I guess the Bader deal last year could be the best recent comp? Not perfect since Bader was hurt and is a good defensive CF though.
Also not sure the Sox should give him up. They don’t really have an in-house replacement for next year. If they expect to contend next year, wouldn’t you want him, even on a “there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal” via arb?
Also not sure the Sox should give him up. They don’t really have an in-house replacement for next year. If they expect to contend next year, wouldn’t you want him, even on a “there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal” via arb?
I think that you have to look at extending Verdugo. He seems open to it. He like playing here. We don't have his exact replacement waiting in the wings and if Rafaela does force his way up to play outfield in 2024 you could move Verdugo to left, where he will age much better than right and Yoshida could DH more often. He likes playing for us. He doesn't shy away from the spotlight, and he accepted the criticism from the off-season and worked to improve in those areas. He is no superstar, but he's a quality player that definitely would be useful in our roster. I think a Benintendi type deal might be enough. I wouldn't go over 5/$100M, but I would certainly try to extend him. If there seems like there is absolutely no chance that happens, trade him, a la Mookie....
But I for one enjoy watching him play. And hope I get to continue watching him for several more years.
But I for one enjoy watching him play. And hope I get to continue watching him for several more years.
I would only trade Verdugo if we have a plan to acquire an even better corner OF. Otherwise I'd be looking to extend him if he'll take a slight discount.
They don't have any financial concerns for this upcoming season & limited needs & roster spots.
Maybe we do need a 2024 thread after all.
It seems premature to think about trading Verdugo. First the team has to see what his asking price is for an extension. Then we need to see if Rafaela is ready to man one of the OF spots in 2024. If all goes well and Yoshida-Rafaela-Duran look like the OF of the future, then you look at trading him.
It seems premature to think about trading Verdugo. First the team has to see what his asking price is for an extension. Then we need to see if Rafaela is ready to man one of the OF spots in 2024. If all goes well and Yoshida-Rafaela-Duran look like the OF of the future, then you look at trading him.
Or just let him play out his contract via arbitration. I don’t see any real reason to extend him now, in the midst of what could be a career year. Giving him the Benintendi deal doesn’t exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
Yeah, I'm not looking to trade him. I'm just asking IF the Sox look to trade him (for reasons I've given), what might the return be?
Totally agree with this. I like Verdugo, and am open to the idea that he's made some leaps: K rate is down year over year from 2020 (20% all the way down to 11%), he appears to have improved himself as an outfielder, but... I'd want to see how the rest of this year plays out before even considering an extension.
The only guy in the system other than Rafaela who might be ready to play right field is Wilyer Abreu. I love prospects with high BB rates, but his line leaves a lot to be desired. He's slashing .263/.375/.463 in AAA right now with a 15% BB rate and a 23% K rate. Year over year there's some encouraging stuff - he's cut his K rate 3% each year the last three levels and posted a almost comically high BB rate last year. This year's line is not far off from what Casas posted in AAA last year (.273/.382//.481), though Casas's is a bit better. The other difference between the two of them is that Abreu actually has a rep as an average outfielder with a strong arm.
I don't think he's a surefire or even necessarily likely solution unless he makes a leap as a hitter. A .263 line would probably drop down to the .220-.230 range in the bigs, and then the OBP lands around .330-.350 (unless he goes back to being that elite BB rate guy of 19-20% he was in AA) and then he's really gotta provide some pop in order to become viable. That's not impossible, of course. He hit 19 home runs last year and 16 in A+.
The BB rate comes back up, the contact or the pop improves, and suddenly you've got a guy who could be a 2-3 win player or better. Maybe he gets a shot in the next year so we can see if he's a Dugo replacement, but I really don't see it happening until September unless a couple of people get injured. There's already a lot of LH hitters in the outfield who are performing quite well, so he also could become a trade chip.
I bet you contract-year Dugie plays very well. They should totally go this route.
I'd certainly look to extend him. FanGraphs used to show the "worth" of a player in terms of dollars, but it doesn't look like they do any more.
Though, "prior Verdugo" has been roughly a 2 WAR player each of the prior 4 years (1.8 fWAR vs 2.125 bWAR on average). Last I knew, the "value" of a win was about $8.5m (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/), which would make him about a $17m per year player, in terms of value, averaging out the two.
Edit - what I'd use for a comp when approaching Verdugo about an extension is the deal Bryan Reynolds just got from the Pirates. FWIW, Reynolds has an all star selection (if that matters) but I think anyone would agree is a superior player to Verdguo. However, he also had (I think) about 2.5yrs left when he signed his extension and Verdugo only has 1.5 left, though Verdugo is the younger player. I'd tell him you think he's a comparable player, but "more valuable" to the Red Sox so offer him $110m over 7 years ($15.75m per year) compared to Reynolds $106m over 8 years ($13.25).
@BaseballJones - Miami got Jesus Luzardo from Oakland for a 32yr old Starling Marte whom had put up a 2.8 bWAR in Miami the first half of the year in 2021. Not for nothing but Marte had a track record of being a superior player, obviously, did play CF (not irrelevant) but he also was 5 years older and only had 2 months of control left (also not irrelevant). For comparison, Verdugo (to this point) has already accumulated a 2.8 bWAR.
If one assumes the positives for Marte (track record, defensive position) and Verdugo (age, contract status) roughly even out, I'd be very upset if the Red Sox moved him for anything less than this kind of return, certainly. Without thinking of "fit" but just in terms of what is applicable now to Luzardo in 2021, maybe something like Grayson Rodriguez (top prospect; some injury history; tough major league performance to date but wildly talented).
Though, "prior Verdugo" has been roughly a 2 WAR player each of the prior 4 years (1.8 fWAR vs 2.125 bWAR on average). Last I knew, the "value" of a win was about $8.5m (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/), which would make him about a $17m per year player, in terms of value, averaging out the two.
Edit - what I'd use for a comp when approaching Verdugo about an extension is the deal Bryan Reynolds just got from the Pirates. FWIW, Reynolds has an all star selection (if that matters) but I think anyone would agree is a superior player to Verdguo. However, he also had (I think) about 2.5yrs left when he signed his extension and Verdugo only has 1.5 left, though Verdugo is the younger player. I'd tell him you think he's a comparable player, but "more valuable" to the Red Sox so offer him $110m over 7 years ($15.75m per year) compared to Reynolds $106m over 8 years ($13.25).
@BaseballJones - Miami got Jesus Luzardo from Oakland for a 32yr old Starling Marte whom had put up a 2.8 bWAR in Miami the first half of the year in 2021. Not for nothing but Marte had a track record of being a superior player, obviously, did play CF (not irrelevant) but he also was 5 years older and only had 2 months of control left (also not irrelevant). For comparison, Verdugo (to this point) has already accumulated a 2.8 bWAR.
If one assumes the positives for Marte (track record, defensive position) and Verdugo (age, contract status) roughly even out, I'd be very upset if the Red Sox moved him for anything less than this kind of return, certainly. Without thinking of "fit" but just in terms of what is applicable now to Luzardo in 2021, maybe something like Grayson Rodriguez (top prospect; some injury history; tough major league performance to date but wildly talented).
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If you scroll to the very bottom on a fangraphs player page, the "worth" is there. It's under the value tab.
I strongly agree with this. Verdugo isn't flashy, but he's good, durable, just turned 27, and seems to like Boston. That's the type of player you want on a contending team. I would absolutely look to extending Verdugo.
If you are going to trade him, you had better get someone with some really big upside, because you are trading away a guy with basically a 1.5-2 WAR floor (and 5ish WAR ceiling?). You can't go with lottery tickets dealing that type of player. My guess is a "boring" player like Verdugo will make it harder for other teams to give up the goods that would be fair value on a trade.
It’s pretty remarkable how consistent he’s been basically his whole career. Quite simply, you pretty much know what you’re getting with Verdugo and that has value. And he probably has a little more upside to tap into. He has an offensive skill set that a team like the Yankees would love to have.
He’s generally been, before this year a 2 win player. While a win may cost $8M in the FA marketplace that doesn’t mean he’s worth that, just that buying wins via FA can be pretty inefficient. Again I like Verdugo and believed he could be a decent RF, but I’m not sure investing lots of years / money in players with relatively low ceilings is all that wise. Something like 4/50, buying out an arb year, seems kind of where I’d be comfortable. Of course, if he keeps up the 4+ win pace this year, and has another great year next and prices himself up, that’s not the worst thing.
A 5 year deal would keep him at his likely most productive years. There’s no reason to believe this season isn’t his standard for at least 3 more seasons. Probably start declining in years 4-5.
He’s exactly the type of player Bloom should look to grab… and there he is…. In Fenway’s RF playing pretty damned good defense, being a team leader, hitting over .800 OPS and still young.
My comment was based on your scenario of him being a 4+ and that pricing himself up not being the worst thing.
Not sure and for the record I'm not against Rafaela playing anywhere that helps the team, I just never considered him as a corner. As for Verdugo it depends on if we're talking '24 or '25. If he hits FA in 25 as a 4+ is he still here? Rhetorical question of course. If Verdugo becomes the 4+ type and is still here I'd like to see them keep Yoshida in a four man OF/DH rotation. That said who knows what the team's roster makeup might look like.
Duran doesn’t have the arm for right; Rafaela does. If he got moved to RF, I imagine it would be like Mookie moving to RF — putting a CF caliber defender in Fenway’s difficult RF.
Given our front office's penchant for players with positional versatility a la Kike, Marwin Gonzalez, Dalbec, etc..., isn't it likely that Rafaela will continue to play some shortstop, some center field, some right field, maybe some second and third?