What does 2023 look like?

[grimshaw]

It sucks when you're in a pennant race, but you need to keep zooming out instead of focusing on single games. Going 5-1 (an .833 winning percentage) against anyone isn't something that should ever be expected. Particularly when the team playing them has only won 52% of their games. If they miss the playoffs by a game or two, it's way worse to me that they were swept by the Cards and Pirates.

Of course they also have no business being up 7-0 vs the Jays either when those teams have played at virtually the same expected record. They won all 4 1 run games. I'm sure Jays fans can't believe all 4 of those were losses.

 

[Leskanic's Thread]

That’s the season so far in a nutshell…. Just cannot put away the teams they really should be able to. And can’t really make up significant ground because of it. Maddening

People spent so much time worrying about John Henry and FSG putting too much into Liverpool that they weren't worried about what he would bring back from Merseyside to the Red Sox...

 

[Rovin Romine]

Their margin for error decreases when they fail to make the most of golden opportunities in the schedule. If this were the first time they did poorly against a bad team, yeah sure. It would be an outlier. So far, they've been swept by Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Have losing record against Colorado (1/3). Their tendency to not take advantage of these series is maddening. It just makes the series against the contenders that much harder. They really have until August 18th to capitalize on a soft schedule. After that, only six games are against teams that are less than .500.

I am with you and others on this.

Sox against under .500 teams sorted by team's current WP. 18-18. Games remaining in brackets. (22).

SEA 2-1 (3)
CLE 3-3
SDP 2-1
CHC 2-1
NYM - (3)
DET 3-0 (3)
(.450)
STL 0-3
PIT 0-3
CHW 1-2 (3)
(.400)
WSN - (3)
COL 1-2
KCR - (7)
OAK 4-2

It's notable how crappy they were against the very worst teams. 6-12.

If the Sox had played .500 ball against the 7 worst teams in the game they'd have improved from 51-46 to 54-43. Which would basically be a game ahead of the Jays and Astros for the 2nd WC spot.

If they had played those teams at roughly their own WP (even throwing an extra loss in there against STL):
STL 1-2, Pit 2-1, CHW 2-1, COL 2-1, OAK 5-1.
That's improving from 6-12 to 12-6. Which would be 51-46 to 57-40. Neck and neck with the Orioles and the Rays.

(And in those 18 games, I'm eyeballing Enrique Hernandez at 6-39, 2 runs scored.)

 

[scottyno]

Oakland would average 1.66 wins out of 6 vs a random team. When you consider that 4 of those 6 starts were started by openers, winning 4 out of 6 seems like the most expected result

 

[Archer1979]

Oakland would average 1.66 wins out of 6 vs a random team. When you consider that 4 of those 6 starts were started by openers, winning 4 out of 6 seems like the most expected result

So... we're good with league average results? Not trying to be snarky, but good playoff teams tend/need to play better than the rest of the league.

 

[Ronnie_Dobbs]

There is at least one thing worse than losing 2 out of 3 at OAK - and that is attending both of those losses personally
(but where else can you get tickets 3 rows behind the visitors dugout for $90, so relatively cheap misery FWIW)

 

[Salem's Lot]

relatively cheap misery FWIW)

Off topic, but if there was a SOSH thread on the 2023 Oakland A’s, this would be the perfect title for it.

 

[scottyno]

So... we're good with league average results? Not trying to be snarky, but good playoff teams tend/need to play better than the rest of the league.

Winning 4 out of 6 against Oakland is neither good or terrible, it's fine. At the end of the year it's pretty unlikely that the average result (winning 4) and the far above average result (winning 5) is the difference between making the playoffs and not.

 

[Archer1979]

Winning 4 out of 6 against Oakland is neither good or terrible, it's fine. At the end of the year it's pretty unlikely that the average result (winning 4) and the far above average result (winning 5) is the difference between making the playoffs and not.

It is terrible in the context of a season where you've already massively under-performed against lower-tier clubs. Look at the schedule from August 18th on... six games against teams under .500. The odds are against us and the situation is grim.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I imagine that to make it means that we’ve gotten some combo of Sale/Houck/Whitlock back and pitching well.

What makes you think that those three will pitch well when they're back? Houck and Whitlock both have ERAs above 5.00 this season. And of course, if Sale manages to pitch in September, that probably means he will have hurt himself again in some bizarre way by October.

 

[scottyno]

It is terrible in the context of a season where you've already massively under-performed against lower-tier clubs. Look at the schedule from August 18th on... six games against teams under .500. The odds are against us and the situation is grim.

Why did you choose August 18th? Other than the fact that right before that they play 3 series against really bad teams. They have a very similar remaining strength of schedule to every other AL east team

 

[Archer1979]

Why did you choose August 18th? Other than the fact that right before that they play 3 series against really bad teams. They have a very similar remaining strength of schedule to every other AL east team

That's when the cupcake schedule pretty much ends. If they keep playing .500 ball up until then, they will have wasted a golden opportunity to make up some ground.

 

[Ronnie_Dobbs]

That's when the cupcake schedule pretty much ends.

Based on our splits, it looks like that's when it starts

 

[Archer1979]

Based on our splits, it looks like that's when it starts

Touche.

Those teams are likely to be buyers so they should actually be better than the first time through. The whole AL East is a crap shoot as far as how much of buyers they will be. Texas, LAD, and Houston will be buyers. Going to be an interesting trading deadline.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

What makes you think that those three will pitch well when they're back? Houck and Whitlock both have ERAs above 5.00 this season. And of course, if Sale manages to pitch in September, that probably means he will have hurt himself again in some bizarre way by October.

3 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched is a 5.06 ERA. Sure, not great, but keeps you in most games.

 

[8slim]

What makes you think that those three will pitch well when they're back? Houck and Whitlock both have ERAs above 5.00 this season. And of course, if Sale manages to pitch in September, that probably means he will have hurt himself again in some bizarre way by October.

I didn’t say they will pitch well. My point is that if we make the playoffs, it seems most likely that some combo of them will have pitched well. If they come back and suck, or don’t come back at all, we ain’t making the playoffs.

 

[8slim]

Winning 4 out of 6 against Oakland is neither good or terrible, it's fine. At the end of the year it's pretty unlikely that the average result (winning 4) and the far above average result (winning 5) is the difference between making the playoffs and not.

I guess it’s more likely than not that we don’t finish exactly one game out of a playoff spot. But it’s not exactly an improbable scenario.

Man, I just don’t get people twisting themselves in knots to claim dropping 2 of 3 to Oakland is no biggee.

 

[grimshaw]

So... we're good with league average results? Not trying to be snarky, but good playoff teams tend/need to play better than the rest of the league.

I'm sure Braves (1-2), Brewers (0-3), and Rays (2-2) fans agree with that assessment but these are more exceptions than the rule. And the Red Sox really aren't much better than average either despite being well above average (35-29) vs. over .500 teams.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Man, I just don’t get people twisting themselves in knots to claim dropping 2 of 3 to Oakland is no biggee.

In their last 15 games, the Sox are 11-4. That included taking 2 of 3 from Texas. I wouldn't feel better or worse if they had lost another game to Texas, took 2 of 3 from Oakland, and were the same 11-4. I'm happy they just won 11 of 15.
Just because people look at things differently doesn't mean they're twisting themselves into knots. Personally, I'll take 11-4 in any 15 game stretch, regardless of who the wins and losses are against.

 

[AB in DC]

The way I see it, this season is now 100% dependent on Story, Sale, and the other injured pitchers returning to form. If they do, they'll make the playoffs and will be a contender. If they don't, or if the injury bug bites again, they won't. A game or two in July isn't going to make a difference. They just need to stay in the hunt until the reinforcements arrive.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The way I see it, this season is now 100% dependent on Story, Sale, and the other injured pitchers returning to form. If they do, they'll make the playoffs and will be a contender. If they don't, or if the injury bug bites again, they won't. A game or two in July isn't going to make a difference. They just need to stay in the hunt until the reinforcements arrive.

I mean, it could. Last time the Sox made the playoffs, one game made all the difference. Seems quite possible that the final playoff spot is decided by a game or two, no? Now which game is obviously subjective.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

The way I see it, this season is now 100% dependent on Story, Sale, and the other injured pitchers returning to form. If they do, they'll make the playoffs and will be a contender. If they don't, or if the injury bug bites again, they won't. A game or two in July isn't going to make a difference. They just need to stay in the hunt until the reinforcements arrive.

You might be right, but if the Red Sox feel that way, and are going to as such not buy at all at the deadline, then they should sell.

When the team had Sale, Houck, Whitlock and the others, they were still outside looking in of the playoffs. As such, I don't think just adding those guys back (if they come back) will be enough - it wasn't earlier in the season and there isn't much reason to think it would be now. If the team had been chugging along at lets say 4 games ahead in the playoff race with those guys, then sure, but they weren't. They need more beyond just hoping that those guys come back, and if just waiting on them is the plan, then sell Paxton, Turner and Duvall yesterday...

 

[LogansDad]

I guess it’s more likely than not that we don’t finish exactly one game out of a playoff spot. But it’s not exactly an improbable scenario.

Man, I just don’t get people twisting themselves in knots to claim dropping 2 of 3 to Oakland is no biggee.

 

[Archer1979]

In their last 15 games, the Sox are 11-4. That included taking 2 of 3 from Texas. I wouldn't feel better or worse if they had lost another game to Texas, took 2 of 3 from Oakland, and were the same 11-4. I'm happy they just won 11 of 15.
Just because people look at things differently doesn't mean they're twisting themselves into knots. Personally, I'll take 11-4 in any 15 game stretch, regardless of who the wins and losses are against.

I'd take 11-4 stretches too, but this year's edition is as likely to go 4 - 11 then next 15 games. They're incredibly streaky. If they fire off an 11-4 run from here, my outlook would be better. But they had a golden opportunity to fatten up against several poor teams (not just Oakland) and didn't capitalize.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I have consistently been a huge proponent of putting players in the best position to succeed. This means I want Whitlock in the pen, Verdugo at leadoff, Story at 2B, and Bello in night games only.

I agree with these points. They seem so obvious, but if Cora and the Front Office have other takes, I wish I could hear them.

 

[Fishy1]

I'd take 11-4 stretches too, but this year's edition is as likely to go 4 - 11 then next 15 games. They're incredibly streaky. If they fire off an 11-4 run from here, my outlook would be better. But they had a golden opportunity to fatten up against several poor teams (not just Oakland) and didn't capitalize.

I'm wondering if anyone has any evidence that they are more or less streaky than any other baseball team? Or is this emotional reasoning, eye-test stuff?

It's been discussed ad nauseum, but I'm surprised how often we forget that they had one of if not THE toughest schedules in baseball in the first half and still wound up over .500 despite losing half their starting pitching.

The case for this team making it is still (1) at least a few of the pitchers and Story come back healthy and (2) they have a way easier schedule in the second half.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

This upcoming stretch seems likely to be make or break.

3 vs the Mets- facing Senga and Scherzer
2 vs the Braves - Morton and Strider
3 in SF
3 in Seattle
3 vs the Jays

Not an easy 14 game stretch. Go 9-5 and they are 60-51 and feeling pretty good about their chances. Go 5-9, and it’s 56-55 and not so much. Anything in between that and it’s probably just treading water.

Win tonight and get this stretch off to a good start.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'd take 11-4 stretches too, but this year's edition is as likely to go 4 - 11 then next 15 games. They're incredibly streaky. If they fire off an 11-4 run from here, my outlook would be better. But they had a golden opportunity to fatten up against several poor teams (not just Oakland) and didn't capitalize.

Right, but they also could have easily lost more games to Texas, Toronto, etc. I just think that focusing only on the loses and not also doing a little post-mortem on the wins is incomplete.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I agree with these points. They seem so obvious, but if Cora and the Front Office have other takes, I wish I could hear them.

Why is Story at 2b so obvious? He was a career shortstop, and a great one. He had surgery to fix his throwing problem. If the medical staff feels that his throwing issues are solved, SS seems like the obvious position. Maybe others don't trust doctors, including one on this board who shared this opinion, but I have no reason not to.

 

[moondog80]

I'm wondering if anyone has any evidence that they are more or less streaky than any other baseball team? Or is this emotional reasoning, eye-test stuff?

Just to pick one team, the Rays are on a streak right now of 3 wins, 7 losses, 3 wins, and 5 losses. And of course, they started the season with win streaks of 13 and 6 in March/April. Randomness is everywhere.

 

[Archer1979]

I'm wondering if anyone has any evidence that they are more or less streaky than any other baseball team? Or is this emotional reasoning, eye-test stuff?

It's been discussed ad nauseum, but I'm surprised how often we forget that they had one of if not THE toughest schedules in baseball in the first half and still wound up over .500 despite losing half their starting pitching.

The case for this team making it is still (1) at least a few of the pitchers and Story come back healthy and (2) they have a way easier schedule in the second half.

To the bolded, its one of the reasons this team is so maddening. They've crushed the Yankees and Toronto from a W/L perspective, held their own agaisnt other contenders (Texas, Arizona) and can't do that against the bottom-feeders.

To your question, young clubs have a tendency to get streaky. I'm hoping this is a large part of what we're seeing.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why is Story at 2b so obvious? He was a career shortstop, and a great one. He had surgery to fix his throwing problem. If the medical staff feels that his throwing issues are solved, SS seems like the obvious position. Maybe others don't trust doctors, including one on this board who shared this opinion, but I have no reason not to.

To me it’s who is better at the other infield spo? Chang at SS or Arroyo at 2nd?

 

[joe dokes]

I guess it’s more likely than not that we don’t finish exactly one game out of a playoff spot. But it’s not exactly an improbable scenario.

Man, I just don’t get people twisting themselves in knots to claim dropping 2 of 3 to Oakland is no biggee.

Right, but they also could have easily lost more games to Texas, Toronto, etc. I just think that focusing only on the loses and not also doing a little post-mortem on the wins is incomplete.

I think everyone agrees that losing 2 of 3 to Oakland sucks, or is disappointing, and that winning 2 of 3 is better. The pushback, IMO, is in what it means in the bigger picture. Not that much, I say, in light of their successes along the way against other teams.

 

[Fishy1]

To the bolded, its one of the reasons this team is so maddening. They've crushed the Yankees and Toronto from a W/L perspective, held their own agaisnt other contenders (Texas, Arizona) and can't do that against the bottom-feeders.

To your question, young clubs have a tendency to get streaky. I'm hoping this is a large part of what we're seeing.

Two things: they're not a particularly young team. Casas, Duran, Wong, and Bello are young, but Devers, Story, Arroyo, McGuire, Duvall, Masa, and Verdugo, Paxton, Sale, Kluber, Pivetta... Those are all vets. Bullpen has had some up and down guys like any team, but most of the guys are vets, and some of them - Belier, Martin, Jansen - are up there.

Second, I don't think you've really answered my question. I'm asking if there's any capital-E evidence, you know, data, that this team is streakier than others. I just don't have time to look this stuff up right now, headed to a doctor's appointment.

 

[Archer1979]

Two things: they're not a particularly young team. Casas, Duran, Wong, and Bello are young, but Devers, Story, Arroyo, McGuire, Duvall, Masa, and Verdugo, Paxton, Sale, Kluber, Pivetta... Those are all vets. Bullpen has had some up and down guys like any team, but most of the guys are vets, and some of them - Belier, Martin, Jansen - are up there.

Second, I don't think you've really answered my question. I'm asking if there's any capital-E evidence, you know, data, that this team is streakier than others. I just don't have time to look this stuff up right now, headed to a doctor's appointment.

Most of the vets you have listed have spent considerable time on the IL so the leadership component that they would add gets reduced somewhat when they're not in the clubhouse.

I've haven't looked at it either. But they are certainly one of the streakier Sox clubs that I've followed. I'm still not certain if this a '74-type club (optimistic-me hopes so) that was not quite ready for prime-time or something resembling the early 90's.

Good luck at the appointment.

 

[chawson]

I'm wondering if anyone has any evidence that they are more or less streaky than any other baseball team? Or is this emotional reasoning, eye-test stuff?

It's been discussed ad nauseum, but I'm surprised how often we forget that they had one of if not THE toughest schedules in baseball in the first half and still wound up over .500 despite losing half their starting pitching.

The case for this team making it is still (1) at least a few of the pitchers and Story come back healthy and (2) they have a way easier schedule in the second half.

There's also that peachy 10-game stretch against the Royals (4), Tigers (3) and Nationals (3) in mid-August.

 

[nvalvo]

To me it’s who is better at the other infield spo? Chang at SS or Arroyo at 2nd?

I don't think many baseball teams would make a decision about Trevor Story's role because of Yu Chang or Christian Arroyo.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't think many baseball teams would make a decision about Trevor Story's role because of Yu Chang or Christian Arroyo.

Why not? If Story can play either position well wouldn’t maximizing the other spot figure in? Seriously asking…. I don’t think it’s a dumb suggestion

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Why not? If Story can play either position well wouldn’t maximizing the other spot figure in? Seriously asking…. I don’t think it’s a dumb suggestion

The answer is Arroyo at 2B and it's not even a difficult decision. I don't understand the fascination some folks have with Yu Chang. He is a solid defender but he can't hit. He has become the defacto starter at SS because Kike has been a pile of suck who can't throw accurately to 1B to save his life, not because Chang is some sort of borderline all star. Chang is a guy you are okay with being a late inning defensive replacement and maybe getting a start a week to give your starter a rest. He's not someone you plan your infield deployment around.

 

[ShaneTrot]

The answer is Arroyo at 2B and it's not even a difficult decision. I don't understand the fascination some folks have with Yu Chang. He is a solid defender but he can't hit. He has become the defacto starter at SS because Kike has been a pile of suck who can't throw accurately to 1B to save his life, not because Chang is some sort of borderline all star. Chang is a guy you are okay with being a late inning defensive replacement and maybe getting a start a week to give your starter a rest. He's not someone you plan your infield deployment around.

Let's face it, Arroyo is decent when he plays but he is always getting hurt. He has played in 287 games in a 7-year career. Of course, he has been mostly a bench or platoon player but being healthy and available is a skill that has eluded him for most of his career.

 

[nvalvo]

I don't understand the fascination some folks have with Yu Chang.

Here's the fascination: he's a toolsy guy with good defense around the infield, decent speed and high exit velocity. That suggests a carrying tool as a bench player — defense — and the possibility of some upside with the pop. The pop is real! He only has ten hits this season, but four are HR and one is a 2B. The problem is that he has twice as many Ks as hits.

(There was also some sense that he might be a shift-ban benefit guy, but I don't know that he really makes enough contact for it to make that much of a difference.)

All of that said, if Chang is pressed into being your starting SS, that suggests something has probably gone wrong, which... yeah, it has. But as a depth option, fantastic.

 

[joe dokes]

I don't understand the fascination some folks have with Yu Chang.

In the Stone-handed and Scatter-armed kingdom, the man with the accurate arm and soft-leathered hands is King.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Chang’s defense is pretty excellent, there’s a reason he has been worth more fWAR than Arroyo this year, despite playing less than half as much. Arroyo also can’t hit either, he’s a career 253/301/382 guy. He’s basically the definition of replacement level.

But yeah, neither guy is very good and ideally, neither would have much of a role, which probably happens next year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

This entire Chang/Arroyo discussion omits the Keekay factor. Much like the Yankees, until the stake is in the heart, the body turns to dust and the dust blows away, there's still a chance.

As for Story, given the return from injury/surgery and all, wouldn't it be best to set him in one position and leave him there?

 

[chrisfont9]

There is at least one thing worse than losing 2 out of 3 at OAK - and that is attending both of those losses personally
(but where else can you get tickets 3 rows behind the visitors dugout for $90, so relatively cheap misery FWIW)

Touché

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Chang’s defense is pretty excellent, there’s a reason he has been worth more fWAR than Arroyo this year, despite playing less than half as much. Arroyo also can’t hit either, he’s a career 253/301/382 guy. He’s basically the definition of replacement level.

But yeah, neither guy is very good and ideally, neither would have much of a role, which probably happens next year.

Thanks... yeah... I still don't think it's that clear cut and dry. Yes, Arroyo is clearly a better hitter (not saying much) but is the improvement in defense make Chang an overall better option there?
Is Story at 2B, Chang at SS > Story at SS, Arroyo at 2B
And I don't know. I definitely know it's better than Kike/Valdez

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

As for Story, given the return from injury/surgery and all, wouldn't it be best to set him in one position and leave him there?

Yup. It's worth pointing out again that last year he played exclusively at 2B. He didn't play SS in an emergency situation (Dalbec got a start there but not Story). He didn't even take grounders at during BP. They were committed to him as their 2B. All reports are that he's worked exclusively at SS since returning from his surgery. They're not even entertaining the idea of him playing 2B.

So all this talk here is academic. They're not making a decision based on the better defensive alignment or the better offensive alignment. Trevor Story will be the shortstop when he returns. The only question is who plays 2B. I expect it will be mostly Arroyo with Chang backing up both spots. If Kike is still lingering, he'll probably see some time at 2B as well.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yup. It's worth pointing out again that last year he played exclusively at 2B. He didn't play SS in an emergency situation (Dalbec got a start there but not Story). He didn't even take grounders at during BP. They were committed to him as their 2B. All reports are that he's worked exclusively at SS since returning from his surgery. They're not even entertaining the idea of him playing 2B.

So all this talk here is academic. They're not making a decision based on the better defensive alignment or the better offensive alignment. Trevor Story will be the shortstop when he returns. The only question is who plays 2B. I expect it will be mostly Arroyo with Chang backing up both spots. If Kike is still lingering, he'll probably see some time at 2B as well.

FWIW, Story was on the DL when Dalbec started at SS.

 

[chrisfont9]

Here's the fascination: he's a toolsy guy with good defense around the infield, decent speed and high exit velocity. That suggests a carrying tool as a bench player — defense — and the possibility of some upside with the pop. The pop is real! He only has ten hits this season, but four are HR and one is a 2B. The problem is that he has twice as many Ks as hits.

(There was also some sense that he might be a shift-ban benefit guy, but I don't know that he really makes enough contact for it to make that much of a difference.)

All of that said, if Chang is pressed into being your starting SS, that suggests something has probably gone wrong, which... yeah, it has. But as a depth option, fantastic.

He's also only 27 and hasn't been in the majors for all that long. Tampa coaxed a 100 OPS+ out of him for a chunk of last season, so if he hit that ceiling, well, he was worth 0.6WAR in 36 games. That's worth a flier, easily. We won a world series with Mark Bellhorn providing about the same contributions. Whether it actually pans out, tbd, but if they get Story back at his old level of offensive contribution then Chang's boom or bust offense is acceptable.

 

[Max Power]

The Great Bellhornio put up a 107 OPS+ in his full 2004 season. Chang hasn't been able to get that high in any stint with any team in any year. They're not at all comparable.