Generally speaking, because I do agree that paying at the top of the FA market is a very risky proposition. This year specifically 1) there are going to be a ton of teams in on Yamamoto and I think the price gets way too out of control; 2) I don't trust Snell; 3) I do like Nola, and would be all over something like 5/$150m, but I don't think there is any way that gets it done.
Also, more specific to this Red Sox team, because I think you have three holes in the rotation that need to be filled, as well as a core RH bat, and you're not getting those pieces with Brainer Bonaci and Shane Drohan. So resources (money) are going to have to be spread around to fix a ton of pitching holes.
I believe both Ryu is coming off TJs (and pitching decently enough factoring in said surgery) as is Maeda. It's not Sale's TJS from 2020 that bothers me (or whenever he got it), it's the rib (I think) injury coming back from that, followed by the finger; followed by the wrist, followed by the shoulder issue, followed by whatever he's going to have next year.
Though more to the point, I genuinely think of posters like yourself,
@Rovin Romine and others that continue to bank on Sale to be intelligent people that have data to back up their assertions, and I think that there are probably general managers that see what you guys do and think Sale will give 28 starts next year (or whatever) and I'm hopeful that by paying $25m for him to pitch there, the Sox are able to buy someone else version of "Drew Gilbert" or "Luisangel Acuna" the way the Mets just did.
They're not all that different from the Kluber signing. The difference is with the Kluber signing there were already only question marks in the rotation before him. Sale and Paxton are / were both in their late 30s and coming off injuries, Bello was in essence a "prospect"; as were Houck, Whitlock and Crawford. So you added one question mark to 4 question marks.
I'm hoping we add one question mark to what I hope will be: "Jon Lester" (a young cost controlled, dependable starter with a 3.65ish ERA that can go on ace like runs) , Bello, question mark; Montgomery, "Houford". (Oh, and one of the prospects you sent out for "Jon Lester" is somewhat bought back by paying for Chris Sale to pitch elsewhere for a season).