OK, here is my (genuine) prediction of who BOS signs this winter for the rotation, spoiler link because I'm not trying to be obnoxious:
I don't think they have any real chance at Ohtani or Yamamoto given what the competition will be for both, but what might make sense is for them to go hard after both E-Rod and Stroman from day 1 of the offseason. Neither should be insanely expensive, both have extensive AL East experience, both have previously received qualifying offers so will not cost draft picks. I don't know what they'll sign for, but that's my guess as to who I think BOS will add to the rotation this winter, both of those guys and still have good financial flexibility left for extensions or whatever.
I’ll be shocked if we’re not a top 5 payroll team next year. That means $250-260m. The contending window is about to open up. Mayer, Anthony and Yorke could all be up by July or August next year, they’ll all improve infield and outfield defense. On the pitching side, only Wikelman is knocking on the door.
There’s no better pitcher out there that fits in the window than Yamamoto. Signing ERod and Stroman would help provide good innings but they both don’t fit the window.
Assuming we tender contracts for both Pivetta and Verdugo, and extend Casas ($8m AAV) and Bello ($12m AAV), that leaves around $60-70m for starting pitchers. If we sign two starters, Pivetta probably gets traded.
If Yamamoto requires $30m/year, so be it.
Gray for 2/$50m or 3/$75m. He’s been good this year, fastball velocity has held up.
I’ll be shocked if we’re not a top 5 payroll team next year. That means $250-260m. The contending window is about to open up. Mayer, Anthony and Yorke could all be up by July or August next year, they’ll all improve infield and outfield defense. On the pitching side, only Wikelman is knocking on the door.
There’s no better pitcher out there that fits in the window than Yamamoto. Signing ERod and Stroman would help provide good innings but they both don’t fit the window.
Assuming we tender contracts for both Pivetta and Verdugo, and extend Casas ($8m AAV) and Bello ($12m AAV), that leaves around $60-70m for starting pitchers. If we sign two starters, Pivetta probably gets traded.
If Yamamoto requires $30m/year, so be it.
Gray for 2/$50m or 3/$75m. He’s been good this year, fastball velocity has held up.
I would like to see a successful AA campaign for Mayer and a good showing at AAA for Yorke before I declare either of them sure things. Roman, at least a half season of dominance at AA
Besides, those aren't our weak points defensively: infield defense would already be improved by a full season of Urias/Story; outfield by Rafaela in center, Wilyer in left, Verdugo in right.
If they don't move Yoshida off of left, weak points defensively remain 3B/1B and LF. Bringing back Turner makes it impossible to move any of the others off of their positions, which is why I suspect they either hand Wilyer left field and move Yoshida to DH or go shopping for a bat that can play 1B/3B.
The market for pitching is going to be crazy. Forecasting or even guessing what's going to happen there is beyond me, I just hope they don't sign some 32 year-old for six years.
Meant as a reply to Jon: Of course, but out of the typical top payroll teams, the Dodgers and the Sox have the most payroll space. I would expect either team to overpay to get him. I don’t see why the Sox won’t spend now that the tax level has been reset. Ownership has historically been willing to spend.
Overpaying for Yamamoto will be better than trying to save a few million like getting Kluber by not being willing to overpay for Eflin. Those types of deals are probably why Bloom’s gone. There’s no bigger need than starting pitching. There’s enough upper level minors talent to fill other needs over the next year or so.
Of course, but out of the typical top payroll teams, the Dodgers and the Sox have the most payroll space. I would expect either team to overpay to get him. I don’t see why the Sox won’t spend now that the tax level has been reset. Ownership has historically been willing to spend.
I'm sure the Sox will be willing to spend but it's not eBay, the player doesn't just go to the highest bidder. BOS needs to get a new GM in place ASAP if they plan to really go after Yamamoto seriously IMO.
Also teams like the Mets, Padres, and possibly the Yankees starting this winter have shown that they no longer especially care about the tax levels in the current CBA, they will spend up front and worry about the consequences when they have to. For instance, if the Yankees managed to sign Yamamoto and Bellinger this winter, that would free up Clarke Schmidt and Everson Pereira for trades to help fix their LHH-deficient lineup.
I’m not sure where folks are getting the idea that the Sox will just blow past the luxury tax by tens of millions.
I’m not calling them cheap, but even if they were willing to fund a ‘balloon’ payment, how do you make that work on a 2-5 year plan? At least in context that you can’t, wisely if I understand the consequences correctly, live over the threshold more than 1-2 years consecutively.
I’m not sure where folks are getting the idea that the Sox will just blow past the luxury tax by tens of millions.
I’m not calling them cheap, but even if they were willing to fund a ‘balloon’ payment, how do you make that work on a 2-5 year plan? At least in context that you can’t, wisely if I understand the consequences correctly, live over the threshold more than 1-2 years consecutively.
As long as they stay under the 2nd threshold, all that happens is they get taxed at a higher rate for repeating with no actual non-financial penalties. The tax rate for triple repeaters (& more than triple) who stay under the 2nd threshold is 62%. So a max tax payment of just under $24.8m & a total payroll expense of about $295m.
I’m not sure where folks are getting the idea that the Sox will just blow past the luxury tax by tens of millions.
I’m not calling them cheap, but even if they were willing to fund a ‘balloon’ payment, how do you make that work on a 2-5 year plan? At least in context that you can’t, wisely if I understand the consequences correctly, live over the threshold more than 1-2 years consecutively.
Once you go over the 2nd threshold, then you have the non-financial penalties like having your 1st round pick bumped down 10 spots (unless it's top 6, then your 2nd round pick) with the resulting loss of bonus pool $.
The Mets, Padres & Yankees are all facing that this year unless they win the lottery.
As long as they stay under the 2nd threshold, all that happens is they get taxed at a higher rate for repeating with no actual non-financial penalties. The tax rate for triple repeaters (& more than triple) who stay under the 2nd threshold is 62%. So a max tax payment of just under $24.8m & a total payroll expense of about $295m.
Oops, sorry I'm on my phone & I think I did the math wrong on this. I believe that's on top of the rates for being over at all & kicks in once you're $20m over. So I think they would owe more money than that in tax, but it's still only money.
I'll do the math later unless someone else wants to.
I’m not sure where folks are getting the idea that the Sox will just blow past the luxury tax by tens of millions.
I’m not calling them cheap, but even if they were willing to fund a ‘balloon’ payment, how do you make that work on a 2-5 year plan? At least in context that you can’t, wisely if I understand the consequences correctly, live over the threshold more than 1-2 years consecutively.
I believe the estimation at the moment is they are about $80M under the first luxury tax threshold with their present commitments (~158M committed, cap is 237M). It would be a hell of a thing if they managed to increase the payroll to $250-260M next year, let alone past it. Not saying they can't or shouldn't, it's just that's a big bump to fill what doesn't appear at present to be a ton of available spots on the roster. I suppose folks are expecting massive upheaval of the roster but I don't see it. Adding two starting pitchers and a RHH bat to balance the lineup (if Turner isn't staying) are the two priorities as far as I can tell. Other spots are certainly upgradeable (most likely via trade) but are covered if they stand pat with what they have.
As long as they stay under the 2nd threshold, all that happens is they get taxed at a higher rate for repeating with no actual non-financial penalties. The tax rate for triple repeaters (& more than triple) who stay under the 2nd threshold is 62%. So a max tax payment of just under $24.8m & a total payroll expense of about $295m.
Right, and they know they have very little on the books in 2025 too.
I do love how we've negotiated against ourselves collectively and pushed the Yamamoto bidding up to 10/300 (myself included). I hope he uses SOSH to practice his English.
Right, and they know they have very little on the books in 2025 too.
I do love how we've negotiated against ourselves collectively and pushed the Yamamoto bidding up to 10/300 (myself included). I hope he uses SOSH to practice his English.
Once you go over the 2nd threshold, then you have the non-financial penalties like having your 1st round pick bumped down 10 spots (unless it's top 6, then your 2nd round pick) with the resulting loss of bonus pool $.
The Mets, Padres & Yankees are all facing that this year unless they win the lottery.
For reference sake, here's the luxury tax info from MLB.com
"The following thresholds were put in place per the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement: 2022: $230 million 2023: $233 million 2024: $237 million 2025: $241 million 2026: $244 million
A club that exceeds the Competitive Balance Tax threshold is subject to an increasing tax rate depending on how many consecutive years it has done so.
First year: 20 percent tax on all overages Second consecutive year: 30 percent Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge $40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that $60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
I can see the Red Sox trying to be in the $250-$260 million range if they're going to be aggressive.
This guy had Yamamoto, Nola & Duvall totaling $58.5m... but that seems a bit optimistic. On the flip side, I don't think we really need Merrifield & Gomes.
Yeah I don’t get Merrified and esp Gomes. Nola looks too low to me- that’s basically what Gausman got a few years ago, Nola has been better than Gausman was at that point. Duvall at $10M seems low but could see him or someone similar landing at that range if they can’t find a long term deal.
Money will go quick, and then eventually the Sox will hopefully want / need to extend the young talent they have coming up. How many guys do you want to lock in at 25-35M per for 5-6-8 years down the road? Delicate balance for sure.
If Yamamoto is the Japanese Pedro as he's been compared to, I'd go as high as 12/360. I don't see how he doesn't translate well when he's been as dominant as he's been, and hasn't reached his 'prime' years yet.
I’m not sure where folks are getting the idea that the Sox will just blow past the luxury tax by tens of millions.
I’m not calling them cheap, but even if they were willing to fund a ‘balloon’ payment, how do you make that work on a 2-5 year plan? At least in context that you can’t, wisely if I understand the consequences correctly, live over the threshold more than 1-2 years consecutively.
I haven’t seen updated revenue and general baseball economic numbers but with the post-covid inflation, inflation-adjusted CBT levels are at what, 20-year lows? Maybe teams are going to be comfortable being almost permanently above the threshold.
If Yamamoto is the Japanese Pedro as he's been compared to, I'd go as high as 12/360. I don't see how he doesn't translate well when he's been as dominant as he's been, and hasn't reached his 'prime' years yet.
I realize not all Japanese pitchers are the same… but given the Matsuzaka experience, I think it’s really hard to assume anyone is a sure thing, especially when you’re talking about a pitcher. 12 years for any pitcher is wild, especially one who has never thrown a pitch In MLB.
I don't expect that Yamamoto is going to require a 10-12 year contract, not unless it includes an opt-out (or two) that gives him a chance to jump into the free agent market again somewhere in the age 30-32 range. If I'm a front office person trying to sign him, I give him the opt-out(s) in exchange for the max length of the deal to be eight years.
I will be very surprised if one of the Sox new starters isn’t acquired via trade, now that they have some real assets to make that happen. It likely will still be expensive, as they will undoubtedly want to sign the new pitcher to an extension, but it certainly expands the potential list considerably
If Yamamoto is the Japanese Pedro as he's been compared to, I'd go as high as 12/360. I don't see how he doesn't translate well when he's been as dominant as he's been, and hasn't reached his 'prime' years yet.
I'm going to play devil's advocate here and point out that as good as Yamamoto is, he has thrown a metric fuckton of pitches over the last 5 years. If it were my money (obviously it isn't), I don't know how comfortable I would be giving him 10/$300M or something like that when, 1) He has never pitched in the MLB and 2) the human body can only do so much before it breaks down. I have a weird feeling that we will be surprised at what he ends up getting, and I think it will be closer to 7/$160 than 10/$300. I am wrong a lot, though.
That said, I would love, love, love to see him with the Sox, and like BMHH I expect a big free agent signing and a big trade this offseason to set the pitching up for next year and beyond. My preference on the free agent is Yamamoto or Nola. I want a guy who can consistently go 6, and that is not Snell. I also don't think the second tier of free agent pitchers (Gray/Flaherty/Giolito/Montgomery) can be relied on for 6+ on a regular basis, either, which is why I expect the second one to be via trade, probably someone in his final year that the team can maybe extend.
Burnes has been the sexy name, but I will throw one out there that I am not sure if I have seen.... Max Fried. He's going into his final arbitration year and, while the Braves aren't clearly in need of anything at the MLB level, the mid levels of their minors are pretty barren, and they still have one of the better rotations in the league even if they move him. You're probably talking one of Mayer/Anthony in the deal, with another mid-level prospect or two, but I think he is worth kicking the tires on.
I’m not sure where folks are getting the idea that the Sox will just blow past the luxury tax by tens of millions.
I’m not calling them cheap, but even if they were willing to fund a ‘balloon’ payment, how do you make that work on a 2-5 year plan? At least in context that you can’t, wisely if I understand the consequences correctly, live over the threshold more than 1-2 years consecutively.
If we really expect a bunch of prospects to be ready in 2025, there's a decent chance that they can go over in 2024 and then back under in 2025. Salle will be coming off the books, and if Anthony or Abreu play RF, then Verdugo does too. Martin/Jansen come off as well, though they'll need to be replaced. That leaves Devers, Yoshida, and (sort of) Story as the only big money players that year, plus whoever they sign.
I'm going to play devil's advocate here and point out that as good as Yamamoto is, he has thrown a metric fuckton of pitches over the last 5 years. If it were my money (obviously it isn't), I don't know how comfortable I would be giving him 10/$300M or something like that when, 1) He has never pitched in the MLB and 2) the human body can only do so much before it breaks down. I have a weird feeling that we will be surprised at what he ends up getting, and I think it will be closer to 7/$160 than 10/$300. I am wrong a lot, though.
That said, I would love, love, love to see him with the Sox, and like BMHH I expect a big free agent signing and a big trade this offseason to set the pitching up for next year and beyond. My preference on the free agent is Yamamoto or Nola. I want a guy who can consistently go 6, and that is not Snell. I also don't think the second tier of free agent pitchers (Gray/Flaherty/Giolito/Montgomery) can be relied on for 6+ on a regular basis, either, which is why I expect the second one to be via trade, probably someone in his final year that the team can maybe extend.
Burnes has been the sexy name, but I will throw one out there that I am not sure if I have seen.... Max Fried. He's going into his final arbitration year and, while the Braves aren't clearly in need of anything at the MLB level, the mid levels of their minors are pretty barren, and they still have one of the better rotations in the league even if they move him. You're probably talking one of Mayer/Anthony in the deal, with another mid-level prospect or two, but I think he is worth kicking the tires on.
I wouldn’t love losing any of the top 5 prospects for just one year of any SP.
My fear is that the FO wants to make a big splash and spends an insane amount ($50M/AAV) on Ohtani and calls it a day.
I’d love Ohtani but I really think his days as a 2-way player are limited and as a regular type, he’s not worth $35M AAV. I’m starting to get Hanley/Pablo flashbacks after a last place finish desperation….. or dealing top mL talent for an another Chris Sale situation….
Yamamoto makes too much sense. They need him and he’s young enough to break the bank on
I wouldn’t love losing any of the top 5 prospects for just one year of any SP.
My fear is that the FO wants to make a big splash and spends an insane amount ($50M/AAV) on Ohtani and calls it a day.
I’d love Ohtani but I really think his days as a 2-way player are limited and as a regular type, he’s not worth $35M AAV. I’m starting to get Hanley/Pablo flashbacks after a last place finish desperation….. or dealing top mL talent for an another Chris Sale situation….
Yamamoto makes too much sense. They need him and he’s young enough to break the bank on
I don't love the thought, either, but Fried might be extendable for a "reasonable" deal as well, since he is already 30 years old (or he might be intent on going to free agency in his one chance at a lucrative long term deal, it's hard to say). If they could find a way to get him without involving Mayer/Anthony/Teel I would be 100% in favor of the deal for basically any cost, especially if it involves the team being able to at least talk to him about the possibility of an extension before the trade (assuming the Braves would allow it).
I also fear the dreaded "do something stupid after a last place finish with cranky fans" move, and agree with you on Shohei. That said, I don't think the trade for Sale was the issue so much as signing him a year early when he was already showing signs of breaking down.
Yamamoto, sadly, makes too much sense for every team in the league. I still kind of think the bidding won't go as high as some are projecting, but it's an almost unprecedented scenario. Ohtani's signing isn't really comparable because of the rules changes that have happened since then, and, if anything, Yamamoto appears to be an even better pitcher than Ohtani was in Japan. I do hope the Sox break the bank to sign him, but it definitely isn't going to be a day 1 Yoshida kind of thing.
Cease had a 3.95 FIP, compared to 4.42 for Bello. But, he had a 4.85 ERA, vs.4.11 for Bello. Cease walks too many, but seems like he was much better this year than his numbers indicate. Would be worth adding but at what cost? Can’t imagine he will be cheap.
Feels like every player, besides maybe Robert, on the ChiSox dramatically underperformed this season.
Cease had a 3.95 FIP, compared to 4.42 for Bello. But, he had a 4.85 ERA, vs.4.11 for Bello. Cease walks too many, but seems like he was much better this year than his numbers indicate. Would be worth adding but at what cost? Can’t imagine he will be cheap.
Feels like every player, besides maybe Robert, on the ChiSox dramatically underperformed this season.
I’ll be shocked if we’re not a top 5 payroll team next year. That means $250-260m. The contending window is about to open up. Mayer, Anthony and Yorke could all be up by July or August next year, they’ll all improve infield and outfield defense. On the pitching side, only Wikelman is knocking on the door.
There’s no better pitcher out there that fits in the window than Yamamoto. Signing ERod and Stroman would help provide good innings but they both don’t fit the window.
Assuming we tender contracts for both Pivetta and Verdugo, and extend Casas ($8m AAV) and Bello ($12m AAV), that leaves around $60-70m for starting pitchers. If we sign two starters, Pivetta probably gets traded.
If Yamamoto requires $30m/year, so be it.
Gray for 2/$50m or 3/$75m. He’s been good this year, fastball velocity has held up.
I suspect that they should be close to the top, but if they are outbid for Yamamoto or he chooses not to come here (which isn't out of the question) and the same happens with other FA targets they can't just spend for the sake of spending. Yes, overspend if need be for top targets, but don't put the team in a future financial crunch by tying up too much in lesser players. IMO, the new hire is going to need to find that sweet spot between FA acquisitions, trades and extending young players to make the most of his/her financial flexibility .
If we really expect a bunch of prospects to be ready in 2025, there's a decent chance that they can go over in 2024 and then back under in 2025. Salle will be coming off the books, and if Anthony or Abreu play RF, then Verdugo does too. Martin/Jansen come off as well, though they'll need to be replaced. That leaves Devers, Yoshida, and (sort of) Story as the only big money players that year, plus whoever they sign.
Thanks to you and others who took a moment to explain a bit more of the impact of hitting the different thresh-holds. Assuming I've understood properly, the penalties are more financial (which I think they would stomach for a time) than competitive (where I think they would hesitate). Going over by a couple bucks just to have the 2nd rounders bumped to 4ths must have stung me more than I thought. As noted above, its also actually possible they could go over next year without being trapped at that level. They should be able to really plow some resources into the 24 rotation.
I would like to see a successful AA campaign for Mayer and a good showing at AAA for Yorke before I declare either of them sure things. Roman, at least a half season of dominance at AA
I’ve been telling people to tap the brakes on the Mayer bandwagon due to his struggles with off speed stuff. He may, ultimately, be just an above average two way player. Of course as a SS that’s still incredibly valuable. But the hitting profile for Anthony is a lot different. You can relax where he’s concerned, the batted ball profile, especially as a 19 year old, tells us that barring injury he’s an anchor bat (but injury, of course, is a risk for everyone).
I’ve been telling people to tap the brakes on the Mayer bandwagon due to his struggles with off speed stuff. He may, ultimately, be just an above average two way player. Of course as a SS that’s still incredibly valuable. But the hitting profile for Anthony is a lot different. You can relax where he’s concerned, the batted ball profile, especially as a 19 year old, tells us that barring injury he’s an anchor bat (but injury, of course, is a risk for everyone).
It does encourage me, although I was shocked by the strikeout rate at A+. Usually guys see their K rate jump in AA, as far as I can tell, while 30% seems astronomical at A+ to me, no matter how young you are.
I remember scanning through the profiles of some other high K% in the lower minors and not being blown away by the guys it produced, but then, I'm looking again, and there's James Outman with a 29% K rate in A+, and Jack Suwinski with about the same. If Roman turned into James Outman or Suwinski, I'd be very happy.
And he also didn't strike out that much in A ball and only struck six times in 44 AA appearances, so who knows what's going on!
He’s just very young for the levels he’s at, and it, admittedly, took a while for him to adapt to the pitching at A+, but he didn’t have the same struggle at the A+ to AA jump. Part of that might just have been that his success at adapting to the big jump in his first full professional season gave him a shot of confidence. But it’s not just the counting and derived numbers that look good, it’s the statcast data too. The kid can hit. The fact that the speed’s legit and the glove can carry CF and the arm RF is just a bonus.
San Diego appears to be cutting payroll (it would be entertaining if they hired Bloom to trade Soto). I assume they'll look to move a contract or two, perhaps somewhat subsidized.
I suspect that they should be close to the top, but if they are outbid for Yamamoto or he chooses not to come here (which isn't out of the question) and the same happens with other FA targets they can't just spend for the sake of spending. Yes, overspend if need be for top targets, but don't put the team in a future financial crunch by tying up too much in lesser players. IMO, the new hire is going to need to find that sweet spot between FA acquisitions, trades and extending young players to make the most of his/her financial flexibility .
Historically, it's been us, the Yankees and the Dodgers that have a top 3 payroll. The Mets spent crazily last year but I think they'll wait another year because last year was a mistake. Same with the Padres. Hopefully those two teams were outliers. There's good reason to expect us to run a top 5 or top 3 payroll.
3 starting pitchers in the $20-30m/year range will take us to $230m, extensions for Bello and Casas will get us close to $250m. If Yamamoto says no, Snell is a good option ($25-30m/year, hopefully for 5, not 6 or 7).
Historically, it's been us, the Yankees and the Dodgers that have a top 3 payroll. The Mets spent crazily last year but I think they'll wait another year because last year was a mistake. Same with the Padres. Hopefully those two teams were outliers. There's good reason to expect us to run a top 5 or top 3 payroll.
3 starting pitchers in the $20-30m/year range will take us to $230m, extensions for Bello and Casas will get us close to $250m. If Yamamoto says no, Snell is a good option ($25-30m/year, hopefully for 5, not 6 or 7).
Seriously asking, because I'm not totally sure. Are you talking 3 additional pitchers in the $20-30M/year range, or is Sale included in that? If it's the former, I'm not sure they can pull that off as other teams are going to be looking to add arms as well. I think even adding 2 in that range might be a stretch unless you're severely overpaying for the second one. Some here don't seem to be high on Snell, I think he's a vast improvement over most of what the Sox have in house and agree that he's a decent option. The one concern about him being the plan B to Yamamoto is if Snell goes first to a team that isn't positioning themselves to land Yamamoto.
Seriously asking, because I'm not totally sure. Are you talking 3 additional pitchers in the $20-30M/year range, or is Sale included in that? If it's the former, I'm not sure they can pull that off as other teams are going to be looking to add arms as well. I think even adding 2 in that range might be a stretch unless you're severely overpaying for the second one. Some here don't seem to be high on Snell, I think he's a vast improvement over most of what the Sox have in house and agree that he's a decent option. The one concern about him being the plan B to Yamamoto is if Snell goes first to a team that isn't positioning themselves to land Yamamoto.
The Sox are currently at around $160M in salary commitments with Sale on the books. To get to $230M, that's roughly $70M in additional salary. I guess that could be three additional pitchers in the $20-30M range but two of them would have to be on the lower end. I'm not sure I see them doing that, at least not without also making a trade or two that could free up additional salary space.
As much as fans might want to see a complete overhaul of the rotation, I think they have too many existing options in-house to do that. One new starter seems a lock. Two is definitely in the realm of possibility. Three just seems like too much. We'd be wise to temper our expectations for the off-season.
I believe you're being facetious here, and know that you're not a fan of BTV. However, for anyone who doesn't use the website and might be curious to see it as a point of reference (nothing more and nothing less) whenever someone tries to put huge numbers of players, it basically shuts the trade down for being unrealistic. Like this obviously would be.
My guess is that nobody on here looks at this and says "BTV is the only true arbiter of proposed trades" but as something to look at quickly and say "is there justifiable reason to suggest this" it's an interesting tool.
OK, here is my (genuine) prediction of who BOS signs this winter for the rotation, spoiler link because I'm not trying to be obnoxious:
I don't think they have any real chance at Ohtani or Yamamoto given what the competition will be for both, but what might make sense is for them to go hard after both E-Rod and Stroman from day 1 of the offseason. Neither should be insanely expensive, both have extensive AL East experience, both have previously received qualifying offers so will not cost draft picks. I don't know what they'll sign for, but that's my guess as to who I think BOS will add to the rotation this winter, both of those guys and still have good financial flexibility left for extensions or whatever.
When it's all said and done, I think something along the lines you're thinking of is pretty spot on in terms of what the Sox will end up doing in the free agent market. Yes, we all want the next ace and believe me, I'd like to have that too. But generally speaking the Sox have acquired this type of player either via development (Clemens, Lester if one wants to call him an ace) or trade (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett - if one is so inclined; Sale). If they're going to get one this time through, I think that is how said player will be acquired - unless of course someone develops into that.
Price is the only name I can think of that was a huge pure FA spending on the pitching side.
I think they're going to be in on plenty of high profile names, but when the deals ultimately get signed, those pitchers will end up elsewhere (in many ways because of the nature of the beast in FA spending and how often those pitchers end up being horrible deals).
I agree that ultimately the Sox will sign two pitchers - but I think they're going to be middle class acquisitions also, much like Stroman and Rodriguez. Not top of the market, but not pure question marks either.
My personal vote is for Montgomery (and a trade), but he could be pitching himself out of that price range (but MAAAAAYBE Nola pitches himself into it; though it's doubtful based on his body of work). But I tend to agree, two guys that slot in somewhere as a 2-4 in terms of talent. Yamamoto would be awesome and I'm not saying otherwise, but I think there are so many holes in the rotation to fill and the prices on Yamamoto, Snell and Nola will get so out of control that you'll instead see $20m per year to two starters as opposed to $40m for one and needing to rely on both Crawford and Houck type of thing.
FWIW, I don't think of that (your idea) as being "obnoxious". I think of it as a pretty realistic read on the necessity of fixing a lot of holes in the rotation for the Sox; the fact that - as you mentioned - Yamamoto fits every teams window; and that the Sox are also going to need to address the right handed hitting hole in the middle of their line up.
I believe you're being facetious here, and know that you're not a fan of BTV. However, for anyone who doesn't use the website and might be curious to see it as a point of reference (nothing more and nothing less) whenever someone tries to put huge numbers of players, it basically shuts the trade down for being unrealistic. Like this obviously would be.
My guess is that nobody on here looks at this and says "BTV is the only true arbiter of proposed trades" but as something to look at quickly and say "is there justifiable reason to suggest this" it's an interesting tool.
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