I think that's coincidental. He's streaky and has always alternated between pitching like Pedro and this year's Kluber. He probably would have turned it around in the same way if he were left in the rotation.
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
He’s streaky, but he’s been extremely durable in his tenure here. There’s value in that. And he had a very solid season. I guess the question is who would people rather have as a 5/swing man, Pivetta or Crawford?
Ideally I'd want both of them ready to go for next year. Pitchers get hurt. These ones are inexpensive, relatively, and give average to slightly above average production. Ship one of them off and your depth might be shot. We had, what, seven pitchers ready to start this year? By June like four of them were injured.
Pretty heavy recency bias with Pivetta. He’s been pretty pedestrian from end of July through September 17th, with a 2.08 HR/9 (one of the highest in baseball).
I didn’t watch the game last night but it seems like maybe more than a coincidence he pitched well in an extreme pitchers’ park benefiting fly ball pitchers.
Pivetta really did acquit himself to the bulk/swingman role (especially vs. teams who benched their LHHs in the starting lineup) and that’s great. I think he’s got some value in a trade, and that would be great too.
I didn’t watch the game last night but it seems like maybe more than a coincidence he pitched well in an extreme pitchers’ park benefiting fly ball pitchers.
Pivetta really did acquit himself to the bulk/swingman role (especially vs. teams who benched their LHHs in the starting lineup) and that’s great. I think he’s got some value in a trade, and that would be great too.
Pretty close on its face, but Crawford for me. There’s value to trying to further entrench a guy in the rotation we’ve got under control for five more years.
You may be forgetting a bit about how absolutely atrocious he was as a starter at the beginning of the year. I've been a Pivetta defender for a long time as a mediocre innings eater, but this spring he couldn't even touch mediocrity with a pole. Removing him from the rotation was exactly the right thing to do at the time.
This is absolutely true. Pivetta was just getting hit around hard by every single team he was facing. The real question:: is post demotion Pivetta is a different pitcher due to changing his something that will last, or was this just the same streaky Pivetta he's been before?
It’s highly unlikely that Winchowski will be just given a starting role…. But it makes sense to have as many guys with starting potential being stretched out for at least 5 innings by the end of ST. No harm there IMO. Need at least 8 guys ready to be in the 5-man rotation;
X
Y
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Sale
Pivetta
Winchowski
Whitlock
and hope that Whitlock, Pivetta and Winch aren’t actually IN theopening rotation
No offense to Whitlock, Pivetta, Winkowski, Crawford and even Houck, but they are great depth pieces / #5 starters. If you go into the season with more than one of them in the rotation you are conceding the AL East. 2004 not withstanding, you need rotation depth like this but anything less than a #1 and a #3 starter this offseason is the Red Sox saying they're not serious about competing.
I imagine at least one of those 5 gets traded this offseason.
I imagine at least one of those 5 gets traded this offseason.
From yesterday’s story in the Athletic:
Part of Pivetta’s resurgence can be traced back to veteran reliever Chris Martin, who helped Pivetta throughout the year with his mentality and plan of attack as a reliever. Martin was placed on the injured list on Friday with a viral infection, ending his season, but Pivetta was grateful for Martin’s guidance during a trying year at times.
“Whatever Chris told Nick, it changed his season. And maybe his career,” Cora said.
“I learned a lot from him,” Pivetta said of Martin, “from the mental standpoint, the physical standpoint, he helped me out a lot this year. So it was really huge. I look forward to working on next year as well.”
Part of Pivetta’s resurgence can be traced back to veteran reliever Chris Martin, who helped Pivetta throughout the year with his mentality and plan of attack as a reliever. Martin was placed on the injured list on Friday with a viral infection, ending his season, but Pivetta was grateful for Martin’s guidance during a trying year at times.
“Whatever Chris told Nick, it changed his season. And maybe his career,” Cora said.
“I learned a lot from him,” Pivetta said of Martin, “from the mental standpoint, the physical standpoint, he helped me out a lot this year. So it was really huge. I look forward to working on next year as well.”
No offense but what else can any team actually do here? They likely are going to go get 2 starters not currently in the organization. Maybe a 3rd but unlikely.
But let’s say 3…. What if, by opening day…. One of those 3 is injured in ST. Chris Sale also is. Suddenly you have 2 newbies. Bello. Just like that you have one of those guys as your 4 and 5.
It’s more likely that the Sox just get two… and like every other team…. Hope their projected top guys stay healthy.
I mean, OD starter isn’t terribly meaningful. In a great offseason you sign Yamamoto and Nola, either of which would probably come in and be ok with Sale taking opening day while they ease into new roles.
Regardless of who he learned from, all indications are that it was and remains a question of his mental approach. They will have to continue being very careful with his role if the Sox want to get a maximum amount of Good Pivetta.
The landscape really depends on where Yamamoto ends up. If he ends up wearing a Red Sox uniform, then one more starter out of the Snell/ERod/Seth Lugo group gives us a pretty good rotation on paper regardless of which of the current group remains in the rotation.
Sox are at approx 156 mil plus arb players.... where do they end up approx. in terms of going over threshold. They have reset - correct?
I think it's time to recalibrate the significance of exceeding the luxury tax. Fans should expect that we should far exceed it the next two years at least, and maybe more.
The non-monetary penalties of exceeding the tax should not really affect us much in the next few years. We don't currently have anyone on the team worthy of a QO (and therefore compensation) until 2029—or at least in the window of the next CBA. If we're competitive, as we should be, the value of pushing our draft pick back from, like, #25 to #35 isn't much.
I get the reasons why we wanted to stay under the tax two of the last three years (and this one especially), but that particular team-building window is over. Now, we should stop counting JWH's money, and quit trying to diligently manage his budget.
The non-monetary penalties of exceeding the tax should not really affect us much in the next few years. We don't currently have anyone on the team worthy of a QO (and therefore compensation) until 2029—or at least in the window of the next CBA. If we're competitive, as we should be, the value of pushing our draft pick back from, like, #25 to #35 isn't much.
I get the reasons why we wanted to stay under the tax two of the last three years (and this one especially), but that particular team-building window is over. Now, we should stop counting JWH's money, and quit trying to diligently manage his budget.
Yamamoto and Ohtani should BOTH get signed by the Sox. Why not get crazy and buy Imanaga too and make Boston destination games for Japanese fans? After the garbage we watched 6 out of 12 seasons, this is the LEAST Henry and Werner can do for us- especially at the prices charged. If they break out the bank they have made up for the lousy product on the field, I will buy a NESN subscription and drive 3 hours each way to watch 3 or 4 games live. I have no interest in ROI or profit margins for John Henry, my only interest is in avoiding the nausea and rage that has hit wave after wave these past few years of watching the Sox. Meanwhile, the ROI of running out Yoshida and Ohtani as a daily players could make it worth Henry's money and the Sox would have a great rotation for 2025... Ohtani, Yamamoto, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta as a starting 5 in '25? Sign me up! Don't, and I will happily keep my wallet and credit card slammed shut!
28 teams fan bases would have traded place with the sox fans to watch "the lousy product on the field" over the last 12 seasons
I know this is a fanboi wish list, but how would you even structure an Ohtani contract? I assume there will be at least one team that will pay him as if he's pitching in 5 of the next 6 years, so does he still get $450-500 mil?
At 29, would you offer him (and would he accept the following:
10 Years, $300 mil, $1 mil for ever 10 IP over the life of the contract?
At 29, would you offer him?
Um, the money isn't ours. Why do we want to make sure that Henry and Werner make 10s of millions a year and worry about them maximizing their profits? We are not the GM, we are the fans and deserve to get value in return for our purchases. Otherwise, the amount of empty seats will continue to rise.
Um, the money isn't ours. Why do we want to make sure that Henry and Werner make 10s of millions a year and worry about them maximizing their profits? We are not the GM, we are the fans and deserve to get value in return for our purchases. Otherwise, the amount of empty seats will continue to rise.
Yes, not our money. But going over the payroll limits results in draft choice penalties. Are you aware of those?
Attendance was up this year over last. But don't let facts stop your narrative.
It has nothing to do with ownership profits. It has everything to do with operating within the existing system. Payroll has its limits, whether we like it or not.
Sox attendance was up very very slightly (from another crap year and with lots more visitors than I can recall) while MLB attendance was up ~10% on the year from all the pace of play improvements. Putting that product on the field mattered.
The Sox are not a non-profit
and it only has to do with ownership profits or they would all spend like the Mets. Yes there are payroll limits but we aren’t exactly hitting the limits of them. Yes it didn’t work out for the Mets this year but I’d take Cohen going forward if he’s committed and doesn’t pull a Prokhorov.There were some pretty punishing comp penalties around QOs (that the Sox ignored anyway) but that should not stop the Sox from spending now if they want to. Which I think they do. And spending again may help the bottom line: once a bond ghoul always a bond ghoul.
It'’s wasn’t ideal, but I wonder how punishing the drop from two picks at #70 to two picks at #130 will be (Kristian Campbell and Justin Riemer, specifically). We’ll see.
Regardless, do we have anyone we expect to QO in the next few years? The way the roster is constructed, I don't see anyone at all who fits the bill. If that's the case, all the more reason to spend well over the tax, in my book.
Last edited:
There's literally no one that worries about John Henry's money. Not. A. Soul. But there does seem to be a plethora of fans that think it's somehow their right as someone who may go to a few games, watch some on the tube and follow them in the media that Henry spends everything and anything to get the highest priced FA out there. Even if you're a season ticket holder... you actually have ZERO entitlement to him spending like the Mets. It's a private team. You can just not watch anymore. That's it.
We all KNOW however, that Henry could spend a bunch and it'd be great if he broke the bank over the next few seasons. I'm not thick enough to think that means that Yamamoto, Soto and Ohtani should all be playing for the Sox. Probably just one of them is asking a lot. It may suck.... but he's clearly indicated that he has a financial ceiling and it's likely the 2nd tax threshold for the near future. I think most posters here discuss roster possibilities and FA signings and extensions with that in mind. But can everyone stop acting like the posters that consider that are worried about how much money John Fucking Henry is going to save?!?!?? It's beyond ridiculous.
Personally I'd really wish that everyone.... from the highly paid players and the Front Office would all agree to not pay themselves exhorbitant amounts, reduce ticket cost, pay minor leaguers a better wage with all those millions of millions saved from Henry making only $2M a year, Ohtani making only $10M a year... .but it's screaming into a void, every bit as much as screaming that "It's not my money so JHW should spend billions!!!!".
Jordan Montgomery is maybe moving up the list. Shutting down the Rays in the playoffs is impressive, even if it's just one game. He's been a reliable workhorse too over the last three seasons, 30+ starts, which might be the most compelling stat of all. Also if we sign two starters, presumably one of them would be a LHP? Or it would be nice if that worked out, assuming Paxton is gone that only leaves Sale from the left side.
I would love Montgomery if the Sox can't get Yamamoto (when does the damned posting take place? I've googled it and can't find an actual date) then Montgomery is a good 2nd option IMO. I seriously doubt the Sox will be getting two FA pitchers. They sure as hell should be able to , but I don't see it happening. More likely to sign one out of the group of Yamamoto, Montgomery, Snell, Nola and then trade for another pitcher with just one year remaining of control (with Sale money going there if the match looks good in '25).
I really don't understand why people get lost in the numbers while carrying water for billionaires. The dumbest thing ANY group of citizenry can do is pay for a new stadium. The silliest thing is to worry about different tax levels paid by owners. What made 2003-2007 was stepping up to match the Yankees spending. Hal Steinbrenner took over for his Dad and has followed the billionaire logic of Henry and Werner. Since then, ownership has grown cuter and cuter about figuring out how to keep funding low for the business but demand high here in Boston and in New York.
If Werner and Henry don't want to invest enough to insure success, I am happy to pay fifteen bucks for a bleacher seat, three bucks for a Coke or a hotdog, and fifty bucks for a Monster Seat and I will revet to the guy who was happy enough watching Oil Can Boyd, Jody Reed, and Carlos Quintana make the big team. However, billionaires usually believe their spreadsheets about guarantees them unlimited profits forever. They will continue to produce garbage on NESN and at Fenway at present rates because they have zero capacity for accurate self-reflection. So, trade for Soto, buy Yamamoto and Ohtani or get out of the business. Sign Montgomery too and leave Sale out in the pen as he cannot be expected to make more that 12 to 20 starts a season. I'm not the cow that gets sacrificed to Rousch racing and Liverpool.
If Werner and Henry don't want to invest enough to insure success, I am happy to pay fifteen bucks for a bleacher seat, three bucks for a Coke or a hotdog, and fifty bucks for a Monster Seat and I will revet to the guy who was happy enough watching Oil Can Boyd, Jody Reed, and Carlos Quintana make the big team. However, billionaires usually believe their spreadsheets about guarantees them unlimited profits forever. They will continue to produce garbage on NESN and at Fenway at present rates because they have zero capacity for accurate self-reflection. So, trade for Soto, buy Yamamoto and Ohtani or get out of the business. Sign Montgomery too and leave Sale out in the pen as he cannot be expected to make more that 12 to 20 starts a season. I'm not the cow that gets sacrificed to Rousch racing and Liverpool.
How'd all that investment Steve Cohen do with the Mets work out for "insuring success"? How about Peter Seidler and the Padres?
The key to winning/succeeding in baseball is not out-spending everyone else.
Nope, you’re the shitty poster that gets sacrificed so none of us have to read more posts like this.
I want both or the import and Snell. We need quality and quantity innings
Sure. I’d love two of any of those. My suspicion is that one of those are signed and another SP is traded for, and the Sox will basically be done. They could afford to just sign two and try to use prospects, Verdugo to trade for a RH power bat (Trout?)
I do wish there were a trade with the Mariners in there. Unfortunately all of their young pitchers are so far from free agency that they might all be untouchable. Kirby being a NY kid and throwing a Wake tribute knuckler really makes me wish we could see him in Boston. But if we call with Dugie and Dalbec and Yorke, they probably hang up. Not sure Duran gets them at all interested, although I think OF is their softest roster area. After that, our top talent is Casas and guys younger than him. Could we stomach dealing Casas? I think I'm a no there.
Take it with a bucket of salt, but Baseball Trade Values has Kirby with a median value of 90.1. The most valuable player the Sox have is Devers (77), then Mayer (59), then Casas (51). By that measure, it would take something like Casas (51) + Bleis (28) + Duran (10) to be in the ballpark of an even trade. Non-starter.
Seattle seems like a tough trading partner for us as a fellow WC competitor this next window.
Yeah, well they are starved for position player talent and their top prospects are all A+ level or below, but as Red Hawks notes, what they have to offer is so valuable that someone else will be better poised to deal with them. I don't think they see the Sox as anything but "just another team" though.
The posting window is November 1st-February 1st every year under the latest version of the agreement. A player can be posted anytime during that window, and then has 45 (?) days to come to an agreement with an MLB club. (Wiki says 30 days, MLB dot com says 45 days.)
In Yamamoto's case he may well still be pitching in late October/early November -- Game 7 of the Japan Series is scheduled for November 5th -- so his posting might not be right at the opening bell. I wouldn't expect the formal posting announcement until a few days or a week after Orix's season ends, and then he's got to negotiate with 20+ teams so it might be Thanksgiving or even into December before we know where he's going.
The BayStars on the other hand should probably get knocked out sooner, so Imanaga might be the first Japanese pitcher to sign with an MLB club this offseason.
Anyone have any interest in Shota Imanaga?
He beat out Yamamoto for the most strikeouts.
Imanaga turned 30 last month & is a 5'10 lefty. He puts up the following stars this year:
2.66 ERA
159 IP
188 strikeouts (10.6/9)
24 walks (1.4/9)
1.019 WHIP
One thing to note is I believe the league average ERA in Japan this year was about 3.30. But a name to think about.
View: https://twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1708130249689768081
View: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1638322654154313730?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1638322654154313730%7Ctwgr%5E1fe51e789d0b63ce0997654f109a5ab72812232a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fjapanese-players-to-watch-entering-2023-24-offseason
View: https://twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1702180699728748646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1702180699728748646%7Ctwgr%5E9125628da213eb0045f67e41f3503a7147470ea3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fjapanese-players-to-watch-entering-2023-24-offseason
He beat out Yamamoto for the most strikeouts.
Imanaga turned 30 last month & is a 5'10 lefty. He puts up the following stars this year:
2.66 ERA
159 IP
188 strikeouts (10.6/9)
24 walks (1.4/9)
1.019 WHIP
One thing to note is I believe the league average ERA in Japan this year was about 3.30. But a name to think about.
View: https://twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1708130249689768081
View: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1638322654154313730?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1638322654154313730%7Ctwgr%5E1fe51e789d0b63ce0997654f109a5ab72812232a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fjapanese-players-to-watch-entering-2023-24-offseason
View: https://twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1702180699728748646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1702180699728748646%7Ctwgr%5E9125628da213eb0045f67e41f3503a7147470ea3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fjapanese-players-to-watch-entering-2023-24-offseason
Yeah I mentioned him once or twice earlier in the thread (including the post above yours, nice timing); he's not getting nearly as much press as Yamamoto for age and stuff reasons, but on a reasonable deal he could be pretty interesting. The most exposure folks around here will have had to him is that he started the WBC Final vs the USA.
Small correction on your #'s, which I assume you got from BRef but which include his handful of innings on the farm this year. At the big league level, he has a 2.80 ERA/1.05 WHIP, 174 K in 148 IP. He was completely lights out through July, stumbled through a very rough August (5.27 ERA/1.54 WHIP in 5 starts/27.1 IP), and has mostly righted the ship in September.
Also yes he has more K's than Yamamoto, but in the CL -- Yamamoto will still win the PL pitching Triple Crown.
Yeah, I had started writing up that post a few hours before I sent it & was going to fact check some stuff but got distracted, then saw your post & was like oh yeah, I never sent that post & then just sent it without going back over it lol
Thx for the info. I saw a 5/$75m thrown out there. Do you think that's about the right level?
Thx for the info. I saw a 5/$75m thrown out there. Do you think that's about the right level?
5/75 is what Senga got, and while that looks really good right now, he also came out of the tougher league. Imanaga does have a slightly better WHIP, trading more hits (and HR) for a really excellent 1.4 BB/9 that's been improving for three years in a row. Seems like a good bet to go deep into games so 5/75 feels worth it to me.
Then again, throwing Yamamoto into this comparison, he has the same walk rate and in 24 starts this year he's given up 2 (!!!) HR. So JFC get that dude please. And I'd be totally fine adding Imanaga to the bucket of 2nd starters to sign.
Then again, throwing Yamamoto into this comparison, he has the same walk rate and in 24 starts this year he's given up 2 (!!!) HR. So JFC get that dude please. And I'd be totally fine adding Imanaga to the bucket of 2nd starters to sign.
That is a very poorly sourced article, really no better than our posts here. It can happen I guess, but I don't think anyone knows anything concrete outside of the Sox' inner circle and Ohtani's agent.