Sean Manaea turned down his $12.5m player option.
View: https://twitter.com/extrabaggs/status/1721311692918042854
View: https://twitter.com/extrabaggs/status/1721311692918042854
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
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Shows you how much money his agent thinks is going to be thrown at SPs this winter, I agree. It's arguably more shocking that Andrew Heaney opted into his 1/13 deal with TEX.
I wonder how much of his decision came down to the upheaval in the coaching staff & not knowing who his pitching coach would be. Perhaps he wants to follow Andrew Bailey to Boston.
Plus $12.5m in San Francisco is worth a fair amount less than $13m in Texas for COL & tax reasons.
Plus $12.5m in San Francisco is worth a fair amount less than $13m in Texas for COL & tax reasons.
Manaea is 31. This is the time to get a three year contract...thru 34. Even if it's 3 / 30m, it's guaranteed vs. 12.5m guaranteed if he doesn't opt out. Sometimes its about the total dollars not the average annual.
I wouldn't necessarily describe 42nd percentile fastball, 67% k-rate as soft-tossing.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sean-manaea-640455?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
But he definitely wouldn't be a high priority signing unless Bailey has great things to say about him, either in an official Red Sox role or as Breslow's friend. He's a Boras guy. Among many others.
View: https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1721154242117877993
For comparison purposes, Montgomery is in the 38th percentile in fb velo & 34th percentile in strikeouts.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-montgomery-656756?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
& Aaron Nola, who obviously can't be described as a lefty, throws even softer...24th percentile, but does strike out nearly as many people as Manaea - 65th percentile.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-nola-605400?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-montgomery-656756?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
& Aaron Nola, who obviously can't be described as a lefty, throws even softer...24th percentile, but does strike out nearly as many people as Manaea - 65th percentile.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-nola-605400?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
FWIW, Nola strikes out nearly as many as Manaea last season. They've both been in the bigs about the same amount of time (8 years for Manaea, 9 for Nola - even though Nola is a year younger).
Though over that time frame, Nola has a 10.0 k/9 rate whereas Manaea has an 8.3.
Manaea's K rate was greatly aided last year by his time as a relief pitcher. He had an 8.9 k/9 in his 10 starts and a 10.4 in his 27 relief outings.
I don't think anyone is really trying to say Manaea is the same pitcher Nola is, but just for another comparison point. Manaea would be a really fine option as a bulk relief pitcher / swing man for the Red Sox, if our pitching staff wasn't filled with guys like that (Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, Murphy, probably Winckowski). He's not worth spending the money on when you have a multitude of players that could reasonably be expected to provide similar role and results for nothing.
On the other hand, our pitching staff has nobody in the same realm as Aaron Nola, unless of course Chris Sale has spent his time on the IL inventing a time machine and can bring back Chris Sale from 7 seasons ago.
Though over that time frame, Nola has a 10.0 k/9 rate whereas Manaea has an 8.3.
Manaea's K rate was greatly aided last year by his time as a relief pitcher. He had an 8.9 k/9 in his 10 starts and a 10.4 in his 27 relief outings.
I don't think anyone is really trying to say Manaea is the same pitcher Nola is, but just for another comparison point. Manaea would be a really fine option as a bulk relief pitcher / swing man for the Red Sox, if our pitching staff wasn't filled with guys like that (Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, Murphy, probably Winckowski). He's not worth spending the money on when you have a multitude of players that could reasonably be expected to provide similar role and results for nothing.
On the other hand, our pitching staff has nobody in the same realm as Aaron Nola, unless of course Chris Sale has spent his time on the IL inventing a time machine and can bring back Chris Sale from 7 seasons ago.
Well, that's kind of the thing, right? Between his age 23 & age 30 seasons, Sale put up 42.8 fWAR.
Between his age 23 & age 30 seasons, Nola put up 33.9 fWAR.
If we sign Nola to a long, expensive deal...paying more for him than Dave Dombrowski is willing to, when DD has full information on Aaron Nola & without any reservations about spending... how long before we are looking for another time machine?
Oh - don't get me wrong - free agent pitching is a huge gamble. Unfortunately, with really no reasonable top 4 rotation options (besides Bello) and nobody in the high minors looking like they're going to fill that role in the next couple of years, the Sox basically have no choice but to sign a big name free agent - or continue to have the same between "meh" and terrible pitching they've had the last 4 seasons (well, they could trade Casas, Anthony, Mayer, Teel and Duran and come up with two high level SPs, but I don't really want them trading all that - but I do think they should be looking to make ONE trade for a top half of the rotation SP).
Then - at least in my mind - it becomes guessing whom is the safest bet to earn call it 75% to 80% of their contract, and be a top half of the rotation starter for a good portion of that time frame, and I think that's Nola.
Not like I'm going to be "upset" at all if the Sox go all upside and get Yamamoto over Nola or ultimately decide they prefer Montgomery at a smaller cost and to go make a huge trade acquisition. I just think of the big name FAs on the market, Nola is the best bet to not be an albatross and to also be a pretty good starting pitcher, kind of a John Lester Cubs representation.
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I would be in favour of Seth Lugo as a guy on a shorter term deal to fill out the rotation. He's obviously not going to be a top of the rotation guy, but I think he's likely to give above average innings without the high AAV or years that the others will get.
Nola could very well be the best bet but there's not a ton of correlation between before-30 durability and after-30 durability. Besides Nola, the list of other guys who threw the most innings in their age-28 to age-30 seasons include Price, Cueto, Kluber, Felix Hernandez, Arrieta, Porcello, Quintana, Carrasco, Sale, Keuchel, Chacin, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. Pretty much all of those guys got hurt or became dramatically less effective around age 32 or 33.
Nola's numbers are better than most of those guys, but with his relatively low fastball velocity and elevated home run rate, I can't say he doesn't give me a whiff of James Shields or Rick Porcello.
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Price is in a lot of ways another name I thought of as "similar." I just counted it up and he gave (on top of whatever "value" one wants to ascribe to his 2018 post season - which for me justifies literally every dollar the Sox paid him, but I know that is a personal opinion and not something necessarily tangible), and I think he's provided right around $90m in value over his contract in his age 30-36 seasons - and probably would have been more like $110 if not for the 2020 clusterf**k.
I like Nola more than I do / did Price; but that could admittedly be because I think Nola has been better in the post-season than Price was up to 2018. Though I kind of picture Nola as being "worth" something like $125m of what will probably be around a $175m contract.
Again - and to be clear - I agree that the idea is to find those pitchers before their age 30 seasons and have them when they're younger, not older. Unfortunately there is one guy on the market like that (YY) and everyone will be lining up to pay him as such. (If Breslow did in fact make the decision to trade Mayer + for "Logan Gilbert" then moved Bleis and Yorke for "Dylan Cease" I wouldn't be at all against that. But in many ways that might be more cost prohibitive than simply paying the money for one such player (and trading for another).
*I also admit that YY has become such a desired asset that I've kind of written off the Sox acquiring him.
Right: besides the health risk that comes to every pitcher with turning 30, even if he can stay on the mound and be healthy, if he loses one or two on his fastball we might not want him out there for 180 innings.
Breslow will have to ask himself if the "it's just money" approach of throwing cash at age 30+ pitchers is better than cashing in a couple of prospect chips (consider our already overcrowded outfield, or the Urias-Valdez-Yorke-Mayer-Story conundrum) for a younger pitcher entering, rather than leaving, his prime.
The issue - for me at least - is that the Sox rotation is so awful and the higher minors so lacking in terms of projected top half of the rotation talent that I think Breslow needs to do BOTH.
He needs to make a call on which pitcher to use the "it's just money" approach on AND find another younger pitcher entering his prime that he can pry lose. The latter is going to cost players we don't want to give up - because the other team won't necessarily want to give up said pitcher.
Then - even after he's done that - he probably needs to find a 4th starter from the "it's just money" camp.
But.. why Nola? There's nothing in his profile that would lead me to think his stuff would age exceptionally well, & he did have a dip in velocity earlier this season which is mildly concerning even if he bounced back from it. He is a soft throwing fly ball pitcher who had ERAs of 4.46 & 4.63 2 of the last 3 years. Yes, his xFIPs are better, but like they underrate gb pitchers like Bello, they can overrate fb pitchers like Nola.
If the Phillies aren't heavily in on him would that change your mind?
For Breslow's 1st year I think I'm going to choose to trust whatever he decides when it comes to pitching & then see if I was mistaken to do so.
Why are we talking Sean Manaea? He is literally the last thing the Red Sox need. They need front end starting talent. They have a ton of options to fill in the back end of their rotation that is not going to cost 12-15 million AAV.
Anecdotally - at least for the first half of the season, I don't think it's that odd that someone who pitched deep into October the prior season would start off slow - and even his slow start was pretty good.
Beyond that - why Nola - I REALLY don't trust Snell, I think YY is going to be such a bidding war that I've written off the Sox being the highest bidder. I like Montgomery a good deal, and I wouldn't hate that, but I think of him more like a low level 2 / really good 3 than the guy you'd hand the ball to the first playoff game.
Then you're into the Gray, ERod, Stroman etc tier. Again - I'd be really happy with a #1, Bello and then someone from this camp. But I think they need the #1 first.
The Phillies "not being involved" wouldn't really change my mind that much. DDski is (in my opinion) a very solid builder of MLB teams, but he's not perfect (nobody is). He let Max Scherzer go from Detroit to Washington and he was willing to move Price before he hit free agency (and I think of Nola as a bit better fit than Price - and I like(d) Price.
That's a totally valid take - re trusting Breslow - and ultimately I agree.
So what is the alternative - lets lock the thread and we'll all talk again sometime around the Winter Solstice...? Then if the Sox haven't done anything by then, we'll pick it up again in mid February?
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Red Sox pitchers were 21st in ERA, 20th in FIP, 15th in xFIP, 19th in ERA+ (101).
While playing in the 2nd easiest hitters park with by far the worst defense in baseball. Could they get better? Of course. Do they need to get better to contend? Absolutely. But I think we're underestimating some of the pieces already in place, & overestimating some of the pieces that aren't here due to the park/defense issues.
While playing in the 2nd easiest hitters park with by far the worst defense in baseball. Could they get better? Of course. Do they need to get better to contend? Absolutely. But I think we're underestimating some of the pieces already in place, & overestimating some of the pieces that aren't here due to the park/defense issues.
Should SP prioritization depend upon the defense they expect to roll out?
Like its fine to have starters get a lot of groundballs unless your entire infield is composed of DHs...I kid mostly. Seriously though, there seems a lot of potential variability in OF defense in particular (depending upon personnel choices and the kids) but the infield will probably be average-ish at best unless we put a wizard at 2B and Story stays healthy. This makes me like the Breslow 'true outcomes' evaluation more interesting on some level, but I wonder if pitching choices and expected defensive alignment are intertwined.
Like its fine to have starters get a lot of groundballs unless your entire infield is composed of DHs...I kid mostly. Seriously though, there seems a lot of potential variability in OF defense in particular (depending upon personnel choices and the kids) but the infield will probably be average-ish at best unless we put a wizard at 2B and Story stays healthy. This makes me like the Breslow 'true outcomes' evaluation more interesting on some level, but I wonder if pitching choices and expected defensive alignment are intertwined.
The Mariners have a 5-win shortstop making $10 million a year through 2026, so I'm not sure they'd be up for trading us Gilbert or Kirby for Mayer. If I'm Dipoto, I'm sniffing out whether Ohtani's rumored interest is true and then shedding payroll (Robbie Ray, Evan White, Marco Gonzales) if I need to to make it happen. Otherwise I'm buying bats in their prime, not trading ace pitching for prospects.
Hard to catch balls that hit/go over the Monster was my point. But yeah, I think in general we will be rolling out a better defense in '24 than '23, & our OF defense will probably be pretty good depending on what direction Breslow goes in.
I wonder if the Sox will approach this as a two-year plan. Next year's FA market is probably better: Glasnow, Fried, Burnes, Woodruff, Cole, etc. If you are willing to get one guy now and a second guy later, you won't reek of quite as much desperation in negotiations. Obviously they have multiple needs now, but they can make one big splash, a decent short-term filler, and a second big splash next offseason. That's not Plan A probably, but if this year's market gets too overheated, it's an option.
So they want someone less valuable than Mayer - EVEN BETTER!!!! (That's a joke).
Ultimately - I think the Sox are in a bit of a bind. They have what I'll call a #2 (Bello) and between Crawford and Houck, I think they have a #5. I think they're a 1, a 3 and a 4 short entering the off-season. The pitching market is good, but lost a top candidate (Urias) which will make everyone else get paid a little bit more, and "lost" another to be just a DH for 2024.
Could they go with another "He's the Ace" season like 2015 and trot out something like Bello, ERod, Imanaga, Giolito and "Houford"? Sure. But I don't think that's a great choice. Better than what we've seen the past 4 years, yeah, likely, but not exactly a World Series contending rotation.
To your point @chrisfont9, I was hopeful that they'd have added useful SPs (for the long term) before this point, but they didn't, so now they need to find 3 of them in one off-season. Which means they're going to have to spend a lot one way or the other (money or prospects) to do it. Or have this be a 2 year plan - which is probably more realistic. Get back to "the playoffs" this year, and "contend" next year. Though something almost always comes up (extensions, injuries, whatever) to make the market less robust than it appeared a year beforehand (ie Julio Urias being a dirtbag and Ohtani needing a second TJS).
Ironically @chawson , it's Ray that makes me think someone like Gilbert MIIIIIIGHT be available - at least if you offer them enough young MLB or high minors hitting. Seattle has Castillo, Kirby, Woo, Miller and Ray (as of call it July) but their offense is not good - and most of their top prospects are likely heading for AA or A+ ball, so not exactly coinciding with Castillo's prime and Kirby's controlled seasons. I know you mentioned acquiring Ray in another post, and in a vacuum I don't dislike the idea. But that would be more if the Sox had 4 dependable, average or better starting pitching options and could wait on someone like Ray until July. Unfortunately, that really isn't the case.
They have Bello and a bunch of unknowns and adding in another unknown (for ish 3 years and $70m) isn't what I hope they end up with this off-season. In a world where the Sox had lets say Bello, Dylan Cease, Chris Bassitt and "Houford", I'd be totally on board with the Ray idea, however.
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Cole almost certainly won’t be a FA. He has the right to opt out of his final 4/144 after next season, but then NY has the right to keep him by adding 1/36 in 2029, so 5/180 total starting in 2025. Either way I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
Yeah, and probably some other names drop off the 2025 board too, but it's starting out looking strong.
There's just not a world I want to outbid DD for his own SP in. & I'm not as big of a DD guy as you. They see him every day & have all the information available to them.
& it's not like they didn't try to re-sign Scherzer. They offered him a 6/$145m extension during the season. Not sure what their final offer was, but the Nationals obviously ended up getting a good deal at 7/$210m.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2015/01/21/max-scherzer-washington-nationals/22117041/
The winning thing is kind of interesting because the Tigers had won 90 games the year before. But the Nationals had won 96 (tied with the Orioles for 2nd most in MLB) & didn't have Scherzer.
& trading Price when they had a 39-37 record, a negative pythag, had the 10th best record in the AL & Price was about to get a a 7/$217m contract, which was a gross overpay, was a really sound decision. The players he got back, Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd & Jairo Labourt may seem crappy...but they did total 15.8 fWAR in their cost-controlled years, which is more than the 12.4 fWAR Price put up on his massive contract.
I'm pretty sure I've been discussing this stuff more than anyone, so I obviously don't think not discussing it is the solution. I'm just pointing out that whatever direction Breslow goes in, even if it doesn't necessarily jive with my opinions right now, I'm going to keep an open mind, especially when it comes to the pitching staff.
I hope we all do. He - like basically any new head of an entity - gets the "unknown" grace period.
Heck, I've made no secret of the fact that I don't think Snell would be a wise use of resources, but if he's the pitcher the Red Sox wind up with, you can bet I'll be hoping that we get 5 seasons like 2023 and not 5 seasons like 2019, 2021 and 2022.
Though I think it's safe to say the overwhelming majority of us would be pretty disappointed with another "He's the Ace" style pitching staff, or a pitching staff like the one that we had starting out 2023 with the entire rotation comprised of massively large "error bars" - and rightly so.
I would only be disappointed in that if we don't spend $$$ this off season & stay around the luxury tax threshold. As long as we spend, I will leave it within Breslow's discretion how to spend & what he thinks we need from a pitching staff.
The error bar on a huge free agency contract for a guy over 30 is much larger than on any of the short-term range of outcomes for our current guys, so if Breslow thinks he can shorten those bars as it relates to our current players, & that what we need is what we have with the help of whoever he hires to help implement his pitching vision, I'll trust that.
I don't know, I think the least disappointing thing for me would be to grab, say, one starting pitcher and see one or two of the ones we already have acclimate to the majors. Something like this:
Yamamoto/Montgomery
Sale
Bello
Whitlock
Crawford
Mahle or Montas (2-year deal)/Ray (via trade for very little)
Pre-injury Houck was a 3.82 xFIP guy. So I'm wary of doing things like giving up a top 20 prospect for Gilbert, who had a 3.76 xFIP in 2023.
Of course there's no guarantee Houck stays healthy or pitches well again (or has the defense luck for anyone to recognize that he's pitching well). My point is that it's a tricky decision! And I'd hate to jettison any of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock (likely bullpen-bound), or this newly rebuilt version of Pivetta to see them thrive elsewhere.
I think between Bello, Sale, Pivetta, Crawford, and Houck, they Sox likely have a decent 3-5. Now they need a 1 and 2. And a second baseman. And a power hitting RHH. And a quality lefty out of the pen ....
I agree. The fact that Ohtani has chosen to live in Seattle during the last two offseasons would seem to be a pretty strong indicator that he is likely interested in playing there long term.
Here is a snippet from the All-Star game last year:
Asked what he thinks of the city of Seattle, Ohtani noted the time he has spent in the city in the offseason previously, including in 2021 when, among other things, he reportedly toured the Driveline Baseball developmental facility in Kent.
“I’ve actually spent about two offseasons in Seattle, a total of four months maybe,” Ohtani said. “And I felt like it’s a very nice city. I really liked it.”
Charlie Morton will not be a free agent. Braves say yes to $20m team option.
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1721628158821122216
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1721628158821122216
Not that I necessarily think this will happen - and still I'd always want to see something play out - but if we spent huge on something like Matt Chapman (moving Devers to DH) and Cody Bellinger (moving either Duran or Rafaela to RF) and then rolled with Bello, Sale, Pivetta, Houck and Crawford next year, I'd be pretty discouraged about his vision for what it takes to win.
Sure, it could work (just like in theory what Bloom did last off-season could have worked, so could have the Maginot line and Napoleon's invasion of Russia) but I'd really question the decision.
Truth be told @chawson - I wouldn't even truly mind the idea of seeing if you can coax two decent MLB SPs out of Houck and Crawford. IF you had that listed instead as:
Yamamoto
Montgomery (or trade for similar)
Bello
Houck
Crawford
The 100ip you MIGHT get from Chris Sale (and I'm betting the under).
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I'd be hesitant to give anyone other than Yamamoto more than 4 years. I'd rather utilize some of our prospect equity and go down that route.
How many of the ~$100Mish + contracts to free agent pitchers would you call successful? Just off the top of my head, and in no particular order, probably:
- Max Scherzer (WAS)
- Zack Greinke (LAD)
- Zack Greinke (AZ)
- Gerrit Cole (NYY)
- CC Sabathia (NYY)
- Jon Lester (CHC)
- Zack Wheeler (PHI)
- Kevin Gausman (TOR)
- Cliff Lee (PHI)
- Yu Darvish (CHC)
- *Yu Darvish (TEX)
- *Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)
under $100M, though. 6/88.5
kinda crazy that his final season was the only one in which he won twenty games- 20-9, 34 starts, 200 innings at the age of 39. Ended up with 270 wins (and zero rings).
MLB Rumors: Aaron Nola's wild contract demands cement Phillies fate (fansided.com)
So it seems that Nola wants $30M per year and for 7 years. 7/$210 is a little rich for my taste for his talent level. We might want to start looking at other options.
So it seems that Nola wants $30M per year and for 7 years. 7/$210 is a little rich for my taste for his talent level. We might want to start looking at other options.
Two of his last three seasons have been somewhere between mediocre and bad, so I’m fine with passing on him.
I really hope we’re all in on Yamamoto.
Nah, his worst seasons by FIP are 4.03, in the 190-200 IP range. He’s a really good pitcher. But this is the problem- Sox can have all the money in the world, but good starters are going to cost a ton and sign deals many won’t be comfortable with (Price) or require trading players we don’t want to trade (Sale). That’s just how this works.
Providing 4.03 FIP for 190 innings is far better than having Chris Sale pitch incredibly well for 6 starts and then having a below average starter take his other 25 expected starts. That's still why I want to hold onto Pivetta. Consistent health is seriously undervalued (or maybe it actually isn't anymore....). I wonder what Pivetta would actually get as a FA right now and I suspect it'd shock a bunch of us
Not for nothing, but even those seasons between "mediocre and bad" Fangraphs has him as having been worth $35.4m in 2021 and $31.0m last year. I understand the name of the game is to pay for future and not past performance and all that, but his "bad" seasons were still pretty darn valuable - at least if one thinks FG's valuations are at all reasonable.
I too hope we're all in on Yamamoto - but I bet about 10 other big market teams are going to be "all in" on Yamamoto too. If that looks like it's not going happen (and I don't think it will) I'd be all in on Nola. I doubt he gets 7 and $210, but I could see the Sox needing to go something like 6/$170m or even 7/$180m to land him and I wouldn't hate it.
At least not nearly as much as I'd hate a 2024 rotation of Bello, Sale, Houck, Crawford and a James Paxton reunion.
Chad Jennings did an Athletic article on the Supply & Demand for starting pitchers.
He broke free agent pitchers, as well as pitchers who have been rumored to be available via trade, into tiers:
Tier 1: Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell (Corbin Burnes)
Tier 2: Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman (Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber)
Tier 3: Shota Imanaga, Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Clayton Kershaw (Dylan Cease)
Tier 4: Kenta Maeda, Mike Clevinger, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen (Paul Blackburn)
He broke the potentially interested teams down into buckets:
Bucket 1: Highly motivated toward highest impact - Braves, Dodgers
Bucket 2: Playoff contenders who lost their ace - Mets, Phillies, Padres, Twins
Bucket 3: Organizations with a lot to prove - Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants
Bucket 4: Have the need, but maybe not the money - Rangers, Orioles, Rays, Reds
Bucket 5: Potential spoilers - Tigers, Rockies, Royals, Angels, A's
https://theathletic.com/5064443/2023/11/15/mlb-pitching-market-supply-and-demand/
So yeah...not the easiest market with 7 top 2 tier free agents & as many as 20 teams potentially buying.
He broke free agent pitchers, as well as pitchers who have been rumored to be available via trade, into tiers:
Tier 1: Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell (Corbin Burnes)
Tier 2: Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman (Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber)
Tier 3: Shota Imanaga, Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Clayton Kershaw (Dylan Cease)
Tier 4: Kenta Maeda, Mike Clevinger, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen (Paul Blackburn)
He broke the potentially interested teams down into buckets:
Bucket 1: Highly motivated toward highest impact - Braves, Dodgers
Bucket 2: Playoff contenders who lost their ace - Mets, Phillies, Padres, Twins
Bucket 3: Organizations with a lot to prove - Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants
Bucket 4: Have the need, but maybe not the money - Rangers, Orioles, Rays, Reds
Bucket 5: Potential spoilers - Tigers, Rockies, Royals, Angels, A's
https://theathletic.com/5064443/2023/11/15/mlb-pitching-market-supply-and-demand/
So yeah...not the easiest market with 7 top 2 tier free agents & as many as 20 teams potentially buying.
It's an interesting article. Jennings uses the Athletic's previous projections for contracts, which mostly seem really low since his article is all about how much demand there will be.
Like if Yamamoto signs for 7/203, I would be stunned. And mad if the Red Sox didn't offer significantly more than that.
He then guesses at how free agency might play out:
Yuck.
I'd rather we "settle for Imanaga" in Tier 3 than pay what it's likely to take for Montgomery. Bieber is good, but a load of prospects plus a big money long term extension is a lot to give up for him. I hope we outbid everyone for Yamamoto, even though the price will be astronomical, and hope he agrees to comes here. At least then we'd still have prospect capital to spend or develop.
Like if Yamamoto signs for 7/203, I would be stunned. And mad if the Red Sox didn't offer significantly more than that.
He then guesses at how free agency might play out:
If that came to pass, we would be spending a lot of money on Montgomery, followed by winning a "prospect bidding war" for Bieber. Who would then need to be extended for a ton of money (or else we just traded a ton of prospect capital for one year of him.)
Yuck.
I'd rather we "settle for Imanaga" in Tier 3 than pay what it's likely to take for Montgomery. Bieber is good, but a load of prospects plus a big money long term extension is a lot to give up for him. I hope we outbid everyone for Yamamoto, even though the price will be astronomical, and hope he agrees to comes here. At least then we'd still have prospect capital to spend or develop.
How are the Sox not in the highly motivated bucket? Jennings calls them "retooling" but that's just his lower projection; in their minds I am sure they are all-in.
Of the 20 teams, how many of them can outcompete the Sox for top talent? Clear No's: Angels, A's, Royals, Rockies, Tigers, Reds. Leaning no: Orioles and Rays (usually too cheap), Yankees (very weird signals, huge obligations on the books already), Twins (maybe but really??). I'd rate 8 of those 19 other teams as serious competition for top end free agent pitchers, even if the Sox are all in. The others probably aren't outbidding us for "our guy" unless we aren't totally sold on him.