Obviously the Sox would have been a new team for Taillon as well. Though I'd project something along the lines of the 30 starts per season, 4.08ERA (4.16FIP), 1.163whip and 3.83 k/bb ratio he put up for NYY over two seasons to be about what I'd think he'd give the Sox. But he's not coming to Boston, so if you want I'll let you say whatever you'd like and I won't bring him up again. Since he was brought up elsewhere, and I advocated for his signing (after about half a dozen others), and he was ostensibly recruited by our new PoBO, I felt to be consistent I should address it.
But yes, I think the Sox starting pitching outside of Bello (whom I'll call a 2) and Crawford (whom I'll call a 4.5) is a dumpster fire.
8 starts is the key thing for Sale. He can't be depended upon. One GM already depended (multiple times) on a Sale return from injury to be a key part of the pitching staff, and I hope this one doesn't make the same mistake.
@chawson - for the record, I tend to agree that "elite starter at any cost" is better than Taillon. No doubt there. I hope the Sox feel the same and acquire pitchers thusly...
I also agree with you (I think we agree) about ONE slot going to someone like Crawford / Houck. Generally I think that for a big market team that ostensibly aspires for championships, a good rule of thumb is to have the 5th starter slot "open" for a promising player like you mentioned.
I think this year's rotation should be two acquired top half of the rotation starters, Bello, another acquired starter and "see which is more real, Houck or Crawford" with the other going to the 'pen (and to start the year, that's certainly Houck in my opinion). Crawford had a 4.51ERA, 1.189whip and 3.66 k/bb ratio in 23 starts last year. I think he's roughly the same as Taillon.
Truth be told, I would have bet on Houck over Crawford, but that's why you have two of those guys going after one spot, Crawford was far better as a starter than Houck. I'm in no way advocating kicking Crawford out of the rotation, to start the year. But if one expects him to be the "4th", so to speak, I think you need a lot more dependability out of you 1 and 3 than anything the Sox have (again, Bello is the 2 there).
Maybe the "5" is the 15 starts you get from Sale and another 15 for Houck to see if he can be made into a consistent starter under Breslow. But I don't at all think the idea of 1, Bello, Sale, Crawford, Houck is a recipe for success.
I can at least understanding rolling the dice on: 1, Bello, 3, Crawford, Chris Houck (15 starts before Sale gets hurt again, 15 starts for Houck) but that's about it. It's not what I would do, but I get it.
As to your question @Rovin Romine - my HOPE is that the Sox acquire 3 starting pitchers this off-season. 1 large FA signing (Yamamoto or Montgomery), 1 trade for a cost-controlled young SP, and someone to be a 4/5 along with Crawford, but with a longer track record of consistently being pretty decent.
My expectation is more in line with what I think @jon abbey posted a looooong while back (apologies if this was someone else) where it will instead be something Bello, sign "Stroman" (I like this), something like "ERod" (don't like this, mostly because the Sox need a SP that provides more than 150ip), Crawford and "Chris Houck.". I don't think this is enough to seriously contend for a championship, but I think it also puts you in contention for any of the wild cards and not just "hope everything breaks right and sneak into the 3rd spot."
I would have preferred staggering the pitching acquisitions over multiple off-seasons so that you were consistently rolling that 5th spot to "try out" a couple of prospects, but a) that ship has sailed and b) the Sox really don't have prospects that can be depended on to do that starting 2024 and probably not starting 2025 either (there I'm just going with Sox Prospects and projecting Gonzalez as middle of 2025 and Perales as 2026, if someone thinks Gonzalez will be ready for 2025, that'd be grand, but I have no idea, so I'm going with SP).
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