What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

JM3

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I don't know those guys, but I assume this is unironic?
Here's a whole long piece on the growth in R&D staff under Bloom (DD went from 8 to 16 in '19 & they have since grown to 33) with some stuff about Driveline & how the Red Sox have hired former Driveline employees to improve their processes.

In early November, shortly after hiring Ochart, Abraham took a trip to Driveline to visit the facility and some of the Red Sox prospects working out there. Ochart came to the Red Sox from the Phillies, where he’d served for four years as a minor league hitting coordinator, but before that, he had been director of hitting at Driveline. Two other former Driveline employees also joined this winter: hitting trainer John Soteropulos, who was brought on as a roving complex hitting coach, and David Besky, who will serve as a coordinator for player development.

“I think if you don’t learn what is going on in other places you become too insular,” O’Halloran said. “And all you know, is what you know. Whether that’s bringing people in from other organizations or whether that’s visiting facilities or bringing people in from facilities that are good fits for your organization, just continue learning. A lot of innovation has come from outside affiliated baseball in the last 10 years.”
In an effort to understand how they can continue improving JetBlue Park as a player development hub, Abraham toured Driveline alongside Ochart.

“It’s one of those things you hear, they do this or that and Twitter provides insight, it’s like any sports facility, you go into the inner chambers or whatever it may be there’s more to it than what meets the eye on the surface level,” Abraham said. “Whether it’s the biomechanics labs or weight rooms or just the staff, to get to know the staff and how they go about their daily work and converse with the players.”
https://theathletic.com/4349298/2023/03/29/red-sox-hiring-spree-staff/

But regarding that specific Tweet? They could certainly be taking credit for a jump that's at least partially related to a change in role among other things. But I posted it as a reminder that we still have Pivetta & he's still a rotation or bulk guy option.

Pivetta's 4.04 ERA was the best of his career by almost a half run & his 3.55 xFIP was his best since 2018.
 

Rovin Romine

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Congrats to Hayrdie Trainee Enrique Hernandez on a great year, increasing his batspeed shimmer from 93.4 of a gleam up to 95.0 of a sheen and increasing his Color Coord+ from 104 to 112!!! Emoji-something!!! Squee!!!


(And as a PS, for the dour-minded among us; I do root for Pivetta's success, and he came through massively at points. But with the whole demotion thing, which did it's part to throw the rotation into a shambles. . .it's hard to see a great year in there for little 'ole Trainee Nick.)
 

Tokyo Sox

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"Great year?"
What they said but also it just would have sounded a bit dickish to congratulate him for a great 2nd half.

Congrats to Hayrdie Trainee Enrique Hernandez on a great year, increasing his batspeed shimmer from 93.4 of a gleam up to 95.0 of a sheen and increasing his Color Coord+ from 104 to 112!!! Emoji-something!!! Squee!!!
Is the crux of the problem here that you just hate Pivetta?
 

Tokyo Sox

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You're not thinking about NPB the right way. It's not accurate to classify it as AAA ( though many people do) because a hypothetical AAA league wouldn't have the top-end talent that NPB has right now.

What is accurate to say, is NPB contains many AAA players, some sub-AAA players, some MLB-level players, and some players who are HOF-level talents who are exercising those talents to their maximum HOF-level potential right now - they just happen to be doing so in Japan instead of North America. It may be true that if you averaged out the talent of all the players IN NPB you would end up with some hypothetical AAAA level, but that ignores the fact that there would be no HOF-level players actively playing at a HOF-level in this hypothetical AAAA level. Players like Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, Shohei, and Yu Darvish weren't prospects before coming over to the Major Leagues -- they were already some of the very best players in the world.

In Yamamoto's case, it's pretty easy to see that he's one of the very best throwers of baseballs alive on Earth right now, and he would continue to be so even if he never played a single day in MLB.
Good post. I wrote this in the Yoshida thread last year in response to a question about the quality of the league, but I think your explanation is more thorough and accurate.

25 years ago the "conventional wisdom" was that NPB is somewhere between AA and AAA. After Ichiro and 20+ years of player moves, scouting, and data, I think it's now pretty well recognized as AAAA and the 2nd best professional league in the world. Average FB velocity is not what it is in MLB, but there are plenty of guys that throw 95+. The other two Japanese players looking to move to MLB this offseason, Senga and Fujinami, are both RHP that throw 98. Roki Sasaki throws 99-102. But Yoshida wouldn't have been facing that kind of pitching on a daily basis.
 

beautokyo

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Good post. I wrote this in the Yoshida thread last year in response to a question about the quality of the league, but I think your explanation is more thorough and accurate.
This is pretty accurate as far as offence goes. Defence on the other hand is a very different story. Playing on dirt (not grass) all through the education system and then plastic turf in the pros. They have defence drills throught the learning process but for some reason or another Ichiro is the only one who paid attention. I've watched countless mental errors throughout seasons here. It's not even funny anymore. They sure love to bunt though......and have a hellofatime defending against it.
 

JM3

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Congrats to Hayrdie Trainee Enrique Hernandez on a great year, increasing his batspeed shimmer from 93.4 of a gleam up to 95.0 of a sheen and increasing his Color Coord+ from 104 to 112!!! Emoji-something!!! Squee!!!


(And as a PS, for the dour-minded among us; I do root for Pivetta's success, and he came through massively at points. But with the whole demotion thing, which did it's part to throw the rotation into a shambles. . .it's hard to see a great year in there for little 'ole Trainee Nick.)
I spent all of last off season trying to trade Pivetta because he wasn't very good at pitching. So it's not too surprising that he wasn't very good at pitching. But now he's better at pitching & I don't think I've actively tried to trade him, yet.
 

YTF

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I spent all of last off season trying to trade Pivetta because he wasn't very good at pitching. So it's not too surprising that he wasn't very good at pitching. But now he's better at pitching & I don't think I've actively tried to trade him, yet.
Heck no. Unless he's part of a package that brings back a solid top of the rotation piece there is no need to move Pivetta right now. He's shown stretches of brilliance as both a starter and out of the pen. There seems to be pitching ability there, but it's the lack of consistency that's puzzling. The guy has averaged 173 IP over the course of 162 game season and his K to walk ratio is nearly 3-1. Last year's career low 4.04 ERA isn't horrible these days for a bottom of the rotation guy if that's where he's to be used, but he look better out of the pen as bulk guy. He also had a career low 1.12 WHIP and is still is under team control for the coming season. Maybe Breslow and Bailey can hone in on something and help Nick find away to pitch to what he's shown to be capable of on a more consistent basis.
 

chawson

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Heck no. Unless he's part of a package that brings back a solid top of the rotation piece there is no need to move Pivetta right now. He's shown stretches of brilliance as both a starter and out of the pen. There seems to be pitching ability there, but it's the lack of consistency that's puzzling. The guy has averaged 173 IP over the course of 162 game season and his K to walk ratio is nearly 3-1. Last year's career low 4.04 ERA isn't horrible these days for a bottom of the rotation guy if that's where he's to be used, but he look better out of the pen as bulk guy. He also had a career low 1.12 WHIP and is still is under team control for the coming season. Maybe Breslow and Bailey can hone in on something and help Nick find away to pitch to what he's shown to be capable of on a more consistent basis.
But isn't his expected production for 2024 fairly replaceable with money, now that there are no penalties for spending it? Unless we want to try to sign Pivetta to a 3- or 4-year deal after this season, it seems better to me to swap out his value for a future team.

For example, if we traded Pivetta to an NL contender who wants to contend this year without shelling out a huge deal, and then turned around and signed swingman Jakob Junis (3.66 xFIP in 86 IP last year), a guy Bailey helped rebuild, to a two-year deal, I'd think we lose nothing from the 2024 campaign while adding the value of Pivetta's return wherever it lands.
 

BaseballJones

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Pivetta in 2023:

First 8 games (all starts): 40.0 ip, 43 h, 30 r, 28 er, 19 bb, 42 k, 6.30 era, 5.73 fip, 1.55 whip, 9.5 k/9, .885 ops against
Last 30 games (8 starts): 102.2 ip, 67 h, 39 r, 36 er, 31 bb, 141 k, 3.16 era, 3.28 fip, 0.95 whip, 12.4 k/9, .597 ops against

As starter (16 games): 87.0 ip, 77 h, 47 r, 45 er, 29 bb, 105 k, 4.66 era, 1.28 whip, 10.9 k/9, .754 ops against
As reliever (24 games): 55.2 ip, 33 h, 22 r, 19 er, 21 bb, 78 k, 3.07 era, 0.97 whip, 12.6 k/9, .571 ops against
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I’m inclined to say that the difference because he was used out of the pen, but he was basically used like a starter out of the pen, so I think it’s more complicated than that.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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That is a really awesome response and some really great insight @Midnight Ryder Jones, thank you for sharing that. @Tokyo Sox - I'm sure it was a good response too. You always have great insight into stuff happening over in the NPB and it's appreciated.

For the record, in some hypothetical situation where I could take Grayson Rodriguez off the Orioles and put him on the Red Sox, I'd be advocating something along the lines of 10 and $175m (lat strain bringing him down a bit) to do just that. So in no way was the AAAA comment meant to be a knock on Yamamoto, simply trying to give some reference point to the relative "unknown" quantity about him. I just think that at this point, with so many teams vying for him, I'd take "the field" over "the Red Sox" in terms of where he ends up, however. I certainly hope to be wrong.

I'm mostly with you @YTF in terms of holding on to Pivetta. He's actually someone I wouldn't hate extending if something could be worked out reasonably for both sides. With there being a lot of question marks in the Red Sox rotation (is Crawford going to be able to replicate what he did last year - which personally I think yes, but it's still a question), Sale's health, and the current lack of rotation pieces, I think Pivetta is pretty valuable for the team. He is an excellent insurance policy on Chris Sale, and we know he is able (even in the course of a season) to swap between the 'pen and the rotation. He's also been extremely durable over the course of his career, and seems to have a low impact delivery.

He makes me think of a lesser version of Porcello (and to be clear, this is a feature in my opinion, not a bug).

If the Sox are not able to land YY or Montgomery, a lot of the other pitchers in FA they might target have durability concerns of their own (Snell, Gray, Rodriguez) and Pivetta would also help to insure against the 6 or so turns through the rotation that Snell or ERod seem to miss more often than not.

As to someone like Junis, I don't believe he's pitched more than 115ip since the 2019 season. Granted, a lot of that has been because he was pitching in a relief capacity. In some hypothetical situation where the Sox did something like signed YY (or Montgomery), depleted their prospect pool by trading for someone like Gilbert, THEN I could totally see the idea of moving PIvetta to replace some of the prospect capital out the door and in that case Junis would be a fine replacement. I also think Junis would be a great option in the case of trading someone valuable (like Houck) to fill a need elsewhere should it come to that.

But if they're going the lower tier (or high tier in Snell's case) FA route / running back something similar to what they had last year, and thus banking on guys with histories of missing significant time on a regular basis (Sale, Snell, Gray, ERod, a hypothetical reunion with Paxton, Montas, Mahle, etc), I'd far rather have Pivetta's durability AND ability to start as the insurance plan that you're almost assuredly going to have to collect.
 

BaseballJones

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I’m inclined to say that the difference because he was used out of the pen, but he was basically used like a starter out of the pen, so I think it’s more complicated than that.
I don't know what happened, but after those first 8 starts, he was absolutely awesome for the Sox, no matter the role.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I don't know what happened, but after those first 8 starts, he was absolutely awesome for the Sox, no matter the role.
Yeah, was it a mechanical change or a different approach? I get that he benefited some from entering in relief, facing fewer lefties, etc. but that doesn’t explain the increase in stuff. You wonder how much was just mental, and pitching differently in relief vs starting, even if the outings were on average, probably of similar length.
 

JM3

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Yeah, I'm much more agnostic on that range of pitcher this year. If we acquire enough other guys Crandrew Brailey like & they love the return on a Pivetta/Crawford/Houck sure fine. & if they want to keep them around because they think they can unlock the next level, also yup, do your thing.

In regard to guys like Junis who have had turnarounds under Bailey, sure you could. Or you could just grab the next guy who hasn't had that bump.

Is it weird that I'm excited to see who their AAA pitching coach is?
 

YTF

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But isn't his expected production for 2024 fairly replaceable with money, now that there are no penalties for spending it? Unless we want to try to sign Pivetta to a 3- or 4-year deal after this season, it seems better to me to swap out his value for a future team.

For example, if we traded Pivetta to an NL contender who wants to contend this year without shelling out a huge deal, and then turned around and signed swingman Jakob Junis (3.66 xFIP in 86 IP last year), a guy Bailey helped rebuild, to a two-year deal, I'd think we lose nothing from the 2024 campaign while adding the value of Pivetta's return wherever it lands.
Sure, I suppose you could go that route. He was with Bailey last season, yes? And used almost exclusively out of the pen. Was the SF rotation that good that they didn't need him as a starter or or is he one of those guy's who benefited from moving to the pen? Good bullpen pieces are important especially in today's game but so are effective swing guys. I'm mostly thinking out loud and spit balling like most others here as a way to fill time until some dominoes begin to fall into place, but if Breslow and Bailey are the pitcher fixer uppers that they are reported to be, I'd like to see them unlock something inside of Pivetta that allows to be more successful in that swing role as I think it's going to be important to have that guy in house if possible rather than trying to piece things together when the need arises.
.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Sure, I suppose you could go that route. He was with Bailey last season, yes? And used almost exclusively out of the pen. Was the SF rotation that good that they didn't need him as a starter or or is he one of those guy's who benefited from moving to the pen? Good bullpen pieces are important especially in today's game but so are effective swing guys. I'm mostly thinking out loud and spit balling like most others here as a way to fill time until some dominoes begin to fall into place, but if Breslow and Bailey are the pitcher fixer uppers that they are reported to be, I'd like to see them unlock something inside of Pivetta that allows to be more successful in that swing role as I think it's going to be important to have that guy in house if possible rather than trying to piece things together when the need arises.
.

Not for nothing, but their rotation seemed very shaky or at least thin last year, their 'pen looked excellent, and Bailey appeared to make a lot of chicken s**t into chicken salad.

Webb was excellent again. Alex Cobb was somewhere between good (if you like to look at what actually happened with regards to a stat like ERA) or "decent" because his FIP was around 4, his xFIP was around 3.50 and his xERA was around 4.75. DeSclafini was pretty bad, and nobody else started more than a dozen games (if have no idea if injuries wrecked them or if they just had a bunch of guys who weren't good enough to actually be starting pitchers), so it's no way surprising they finished with a one game better record than the Sox and 5 games behind Arizona and 3 behind SD.

I have no idea what they actually planned their rotation to be outside of Webb and Cobb, to be clear nor how things went so wrong.

Not that I blame Bailey for this because when your GM gives you 2.5 starters, the team overall shouldn't be expected to be good. That Bailey got as much out of that staff as he did is what makes him so appealing, to me at least.

But if Breslow gives him just Bello, Crawford, Sale and depends on a bunch of swingmen, openers and whatever else, I don't think the resulting wins and losses are going to look good here either, actually even worse because of park effects. But I don't in any way think Breslow will do that...
 
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Max Power

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I don't know what happened, but after those first 8 starts, he was absolutely awesome for the Sox, no matter the role.
He's Pivetta and he's streaky. I think they panicked a bit in pulling him from the rotation and he would have turned it around regardless of changing roles. He can go on long streaks as the best pitcher in baseball and ones where he's the worst. In the end, he's usually around average.
 

JM3

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Not for nothing, but their rotation was pretty bad last year, actually. It was their bullpen that was really good.

Webb was excellent again. Alex Cobb was somewhere between good (if you like to look at what actually happened with regards to a stat like ERA) or "decent" because his FIP was around 4, his xFIP was around 3.50 and his xERA was around 4.75. DeSclafini was pretty bad, and nobody else started more than a dozen games (if have no idea if injuries wrecked them or if they just had a bunch of guys who weren't good enough to actually be starting pitchers), so it's no way surprising they finished with a one game better record than the Sox and 5 games behind Arizona and 3 behind SD.

I have no idea what they actually planned their rotation to be outside of Webb and Cobb, to be clear nor how things went so wrong. But the results weren't good.

Not that I blame Bailey for this because when your GM gives you 2 starters, you shouldn't be expected to be good. If Breslow gives him just Bello, Crawford, Sale and a bunch of swingmen, I don't think it's going to look good here either, actually even worse because of park effects. But I don't in any way think Breslow will do that...
Their rotation was apparently supposed to be made up among Webb/Cobb/DeSclafani/Wood/Stripling/Manaea.

What needs to go right?
The strength of the Giants is expected to be a deep starting rotation, which is led by homegrown ace Logan Webb and veterans Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Stripling and Manaea. San Francisco’s starters led the Majors with a 3.10 FIP in 2022, and they will once again be counted on to set the tone throughout the regular season.
https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-season-preview-and-predictions-for-2023

Despite that ragtag assemblage, they still finished 11th in ERA & 4th in FIP.
 

YTF

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Not for nothing, but their rotation seemed very shaky or at least thin last year, their 'pen looked excellent, and Bailey appeared to make a lot of chicken s**t into chicken salad.

Webb was excellent again. Alex Cobb was somewhere between good (if you like to look at what actually happened with regards to a stat like ERA) or "decent" because his FIP was around 4, his xFIP was around 3.50 and his xERA was around 4.75. DeSclafini was pretty bad, and nobody else started more than a dozen games (if have no idea if injuries wrecked them or if they just had a bunch of guys who weren't good enough to actually be starting pitchers), so it's no way surprising they finished with a one game better record than the Sox and 5 games behind Arizona and 3 behind SD.

I have no idea what they actually planned their rotation to be outside of Webb and Cobb, to be clear nor how things went so wrong.

Not that I blame Bailey for this because when your GM gives you 2.5 starters, the team overall shouldn't be expected to be good. That Bailey got as much out of that staff as he did is what makes him so appealing, to me at least.

But if Breslow gives him just Bello, Crawford, Sale and depends on a bunch of swingmen, openers and whatever else, I don't think the resulting wins and losses are going to look good here either, actually even worse because of park effects. But I don't in any way think Breslow will do that...
So that's sort of what I'm looking at regarding Junis and only using him as an example because he was mentioned. As strapped as they were for starting pitching, the Giants didn't resort to using Junis despite his experience. Perhaps Bailey was part of the process that determined that his role is that of a reliever. Given his really good streaks, I'd like to see what future role or value (if any) that Breslow and Bailey might see in Pivetta and others may have before moving on from them. This is supposed to be their strength, it's why they're here. The Sox bullpen isn't a huge area of concern right now, nor is the bottom of the rotation. Yes you always want to improve on any position that you can, but these two seem to have knack of identifying issues and then determining if they can solve them or if they need to move on from them. If there are things that can be solved internally it seems to make sense to me that you keep a guy like Pivetta over bringing in a guy like Junis.
 

BeantownIdaho

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I'm sure this is posted 16 pages ago, but what does our starting 5 look like for next year? Is Whitlock staying in the rotation or heading to the pen? Are we also looking for a #2/3 guy?
Is this what we are looking at?
1 - FA
2 - Bello
3 - Sale
4 - Crawford
5- Pivetta/Houk
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm sure this is posted 16 pages ago, but what does our starting 5 look like for next year? Is Whitlock staying in the rotation or heading to the pen? Are we also looking for a #2/3 guy?
Is this what we are looking at?
1 - FA
2 - Bello
3 - Sale
4 - Crawford
5- Pivetta/Houk
I think the current 40-man depth chart looks like this...

Bello
Sale
Pivetta
Houck
Crawford
Whitlock
Walter
Murphy
Mata


I don't think anyone from the team has publicly discussed starting pitching plans other than those guys listed. What they're doing beyond that is just speculation at the moment. Presumably they're going after at least one starter to put at the top of the list. The general expectation is they're going for two guys that will slot into the top three spots on the list.
 

chrisfont9

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Wins is an odd barometer to use in this era. He's had three consecutive seasons of 30+ starts and 150+ innings during which he's posted a collective 3.42 ERA, 3.62 FIP, and 1.184 WHIP. That's a pretty good pitcher.
Do teams even focus on outcomes? I would think they would look at health, season-long durability, control numbers, pitch FX over the course of a game (e.g. third time thru) -- like what has he done that's in his control?
 

chawson

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Sure, I suppose you could go that route. He was with Bailey last season, yes? And used almost exclusively out of the pen. Was the SF rotation that good that they didn't need him as a starter or or is he one of those guy's who benefited from moving to the pen? Good bullpen pieces are important especially in today's game but so are effective swing guys. I'm mostly thinking out loud and spit balling like most others here as a way to fill time until some dominoes begin to fall into place, but if Breslow and Bailey are the pitcher fixer uppers that they are reported to be, I'd like to see them unlock something inside of Pivetta that allows to be more successful in that swing role as I think it's going to be important to have that guy in house if possible rather than trying to piece things together when the need arises.
.
Yeah, Junis was mostly a 3 or 4 inning swingman/bulk reliever out of the pen. Not far off from how Pivetta was used after his May demotion, though the latter would typically go a little longer.

I'm not anti-Pivetta the pitcher (this version, anyway). It's mostly about the contract situation. It makes more sense, I think, to acquire pitching reinforcements — e.g. Pivetta's replacement — this winter than next.

I just don't see a scenario where he's our #5. If we acquire only one good starter, then our rotation is that guy, plus Sale, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta. Even if that guy is Yamamoto, I don't think that rotation does the trick. If we add a second starter, that pushes Pivetta to the pen, where there are already a few multi-inning guys ahead of him, each with many years of team control.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Their rotation was apparently supposed to be made up among Webb/Cobb/DeSclafani/Wood/Stripling/Manaea.

https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-season-preview-and-predictions-for-2023

Despite that ragtag assemblage, they still finished 11th in ERA & 4th in FIP.
It's really nice of San Fran to make it easy for all 9500 Oakland fans to simply start rooting for the team on the other side of the bay. That's the kind of thing Oakland would do, so it's a nice and smooth change for those fans.

I always tend to think of SF as being one of the "smart" teams, but that's more based on their mid 2010s run and recently, they don't really deserve that belief. Looking at Zaidi, why on Earth is he still in charge out there. They generally spend around 10th in the game (on average) and he's gone 77-85, 107-55 but lost in the NLDS, 81-81; 79-83. (I didn't count the 2020 season, but they missed the playoffs the too). SF could / should do better leading their baseball ops department.

Though, snark aside, it's not at all surprising that putting together a rotation of one really good SP (Webb), one decent enough pitcher that should be expected to miss at least a month of starts (Cobb), and then a bunch of guys that had entire career track records of "meh" for one reason or another (durability, ineffectiveness as starters, simply not being good) ended up being a really bad team that couldn't go .500.

It really is a testament to Bailey that he got that collection to have decent enough results, but wow that is a pitching staff that should have never been expected to contend for anything beyond the last wild card.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yeah, Junis was mostly a 3 or 4 inning swingman/bulk reliever out of the pen. Not far off from how Pivetta was used after his May demotion, though the latter would typically go a little longer.

I'm not anti-Pivetta the pitcher (this version, anyway). It's mostly about the contract situation. It makes more sense, I think, to acquire pitching reinforcements — e.g. Pivetta's replacement — this winter than next.

I just don't see a scenario where he's our #5. If we acquire only one good starter, then our rotation is that guy, plus Sale, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta. Even if that guy is Yamamoto, I don't think that rotation does the trick. If we add a second starter, that pushes Pivetta to the pen, where there are already a few multi-inning guys ahead of him, each with many years of team control.
But you sort of know what you're getting with Pivetta at this point and it's valuable. Innings and flexibility. Trade for a guy who costs a few million more (and I really think the Sox budget will skyrocket this year so it's of no concern) may not be able to deliver that. Sure... if you can package a trade that he's part of that would bring you back something younger and clearly an upgrade then yeah. But I don't see that and I'd rather they use that to cover the two upper rotation spots without dropping him.
And what..... on the underlined and bolded.... you're figuring in Chris Sale? No. Anything he gives you should be considered a "wow... didn't expect that!" plan and that's it. And right there is why Pivetta needs to be on the team. And Crawford is still pretty questionable. He looked good the first half but not so much the second half. Pivetta only somehow seemed to get stronger as the season went along.
I'm more inclined to think his improvement when he went to the "pen" (in quotes because he mostly functioned as a starter regardless of when he made his first pitch) was more likely a slight tweak.... which is of course, related to consistency. Good pitchers can control those little things that barely anyone can notice that makes the difference in a few mph or a few inches off the plate over and over again. I just don't think you're going to find a better, cheaper, more consistent version of Pivetta. Those guys will cost a boatload of prospect capital or $22-$30M per season, which is why an extension at a reasonable amount should at least be explored.
 

chawson

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But you sort of know what you're getting with Pivetta at this point and it's valuable. Innings and flexibility. Trade for a guy who costs a few million more (and I really think the Sox budget will skyrocket this year so it's of no concern) may not be able to deliver that. Sure... if you can package a trade that he's part of that would bring you back something younger and clearly an upgrade then yeah. But I don't see that and I'd rather they use that to cover the two upper rotation spots without dropping him.
And what..... on the underlined and bolded.... you're figuring in Chris Sale? No. Anything he gives you should be considered a "wow... didn't expect that!" plan and that's it. And right there is why Pivetta needs to be on the team. And Crawford is still pretty questionable. He looked good the first half but not so much the second half. Pivetta only somehow seemed to get stronger as the season went along.
I'm more inclined to think his improvement when he went to the "pen" (in quotes because he mostly functioned as a starter regardless of when he made his first pitch) was more likely a slight tweak.... which is of course, related to consistency. Good pitchers can control those little things that barely anyone can notice that makes the difference in a few mph or a few inches off the plate over and over again. I just don't think you're going to find a better, cheaper, more consistent version of Pivetta. Those guys will cost a boatload of prospect capital or $22-$30M per season, which is why an extension at a reasonable amount should at least be explored.
Re your first line — yeah, I don’t know. I’d probably say the opposite. His ERA was 104th of 116 major-league starting pitchers (min. 30 IP) when he was demoted on May 16th. He made a tweak out of desperation, and good for him that he did. But we kind of haven’t known what we’re getting with him, and we don’t especially know how the league’s going to respond to the changes he made.

Re your point about Sale, I see it differently there too. Sale’s unavailability has reached a kind of folk wisdom status, but we really do have to plan on him being one of our five starters if he’s healthy. He returned from injury and put up a 3.85 xFIP over his final 9 starts. He’s a solid #2-3, and he’s in a walk year.

I think people see Crawford’s funky delivery and don’t trust that he’s a starter. He threw 30% more innings in 2023 than 2022. Faded slightly down the stretch, but not much. Got bombed against Tampa and Houston and rebounded with three dynamite starts to close the year. I’m quite happy with him in the rotation, maybe occasionally handcuffed to Murphy.

Put it this way. I think there’s zero chance that all of Pivetta, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock are on the team next year. Only one of those guys is someone we don’t control through 2027, and he happens to be the oldest one (by three years), the most expensive, and currently sits at his career’s peak value.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Re your first line — yeah, I don’t know. I’d probably say the opposite. His ERA was 104th of 116 major-league starting pitchers (min. 30 IP) when he was demoted on May 16th. He made a tweak out of desperation, and good for him that he did. But we kind of haven’t known what we’re getting with him, and we don’t especially know how the league’s going to respond to the changes he made.

Re your point about Sale, I see it differently there too. Sale’s unavailability has reached a kind of folk wisdom status, but we really do have to plan on him being one of our five starters if he’s healthy. He returned from injury and put up a 3.85 xFIP over his final 9 starts. He’s a solid #2-3, and he’s in a walk year.

I think people see Crawford’s funky delivery and don’t trust that he’s a starter. He threw 30% more innings in 2023 than 2022. Faded slightly down the stretch, but not much. Got bombed against Tampa and Houston and rebounded with three dynamite starts to close the year. I’m quite happy with him in the rotation, maybe occasionally handcuffed to Murphy.

Put it this way. I think there’s zero chance that all of Pivetta, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock are on the team next year. Only one of those guys is someone we don’t control through 2027, and he happens to be the oldest one (by three years), the most expensive, and currently sits at his career’s peak value.
I honestly really do get your point.... and that Pivetta murdered your family dog when you were a child or something... but there's a major difference between Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta right now and it's obvious and it's the one thing that the Sox will need- some guy that you can bet a million bucks on will be able to pitch in any role and do at least league average or better from the start of the season to the end... and will additionally probably be able to transition to any required role without a hitch. Whitlock should be nothing more than what he was in '21. That's it. Only time I want to see him starting is if the starting 5 to start the season have ALL been injured. Then Houck and Crawford both have durability issues- yeah, both still relatively young (in terms of time served on ML roster) but Houck 3 years in still hasn't shown he can be anything more than a no. 5 and I'm hesitant to say Crawford will be better. Both have had injuries that sidelined them over the past two years. And Sale, sure.... if he's healthy to start the season should be the opening day starter. But I just wouldn't expect that to happen either. You continue to undervalue consistent ability to just pitch innings at a league average (or slightly better). If you're so sure that Crawford will be as good as his last 3 starts, then apply that to Pivetta from June onward.
I'm hoping to see:
Starter
Starter
Bello
Houck/Crawford (other bumped to BP)
Sale/Pivetta (if Pivetta is here that means Sale is injured again)

That has a BP of Houck/Crawford, Pivetta, Murphy as 2-3 inning guys. Great.

Moving Pivetta seems at the absolute best like a lateral move at best.
 

JM3

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I honestly really do get your point.... and that Pivetta murdered your family dog when you were a child or something... but there's a major difference between Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta right now and it's obvious and it's the one thing that the Sox will need- some guy that you can bet a million bucks on will be able to pitch in any role and do at least league average or better from the start of the season to the end... and will additionally probably be able to transition to any required role without a hitch. Whitlock should be nothing more than what he was in '21. That's it. Only time I want to see him starting is if the starting 5 to start the season have ALL been injured. Then Houck and Crawford both have durability issues- yeah, both still relatively young (in terms of time served on ML roster) but Houck 3 years in still hasn't shown he can be anything more than a no. 5 and I'm hesitant to say Crawford will be better. Both have had injuries that sidelined them over the past two years. And Sale, sure.... if he's healthy to start the season should be the opening day starter. But I just wouldn't expect that to happen either. You continue to undervalue consistent ability to just pitch innings at a league average (or slightly better). If you're so sure that Crawford will be as good as his last 3 starts, then apply that to Pivetta from June onward.
I'm hoping to see:
Starter
Starter
Bello
Houck/Crawford (other bumped to BP)
Sale/Pivetta (if Pivetta is here that means Sale is injured again)

That has a BP of Houck/Crawford, Pivetta, Murphy as 2-3 inning guys. Great.

Moving Pivetta seems at the absolute best like a lateral move at best.
What's the opposite of killing one's dog?

Technically Pivetta has been a below average starter all 7 years of his career, including this one.
 

JM3

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From Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s agent Joel Wolfe:

- Yamamoto has no preference about playing on the west coast.

- He’s into the idea of playing with another Japanese player. Hello, Masataka Yoshida.

- His decision is likely to come after the Winter Meetings. Which he won’t attend.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1727414623765430757

The Shota/Yamamoto double would be legit.

Or we could just add Ohtani, too if Yamamoto really wants.
 

chawson

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I honestly really do get your point.... and that Pivetta murdered your family dog when you were a child or something... but there's a major difference between Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta right now and it's obvious and it's the one thing that the Sox will need- some guy that you can bet a million bucks on will be able to pitch in any role and do at least league average or better from the start of the season to the end... and will additionally probably be able to transition to any required role without a hitch. Whitlock should be nothing more than what he was in '21. That's it. Only time I want to see him starting is if the starting 5 to start the season have ALL been injured. Then Houck and Crawford both have durability issues- yeah, both still relatively young (in terms of time served on ML roster) but Houck 3 years in still hasn't shown he can be anything more than a no. 5 and I'm hesitant to say Crawford will be better. Both have had injuries that sidelined them over the past two years. And Sale, sure.... if he's healthy to start the season should be the opening day starter. But I just wouldn't expect that to happen either. You continue to undervalue consistent ability to just pitch innings at a league average (or slightly better). If you're so sure that Crawford will be as good as his last 3 starts, then apply that to Pivetta from June onward.
I'm hoping to see:
Starter
Starter
Bello
Houck/Crawford (other bumped to BP)
Sale/Pivetta (if Pivetta is here that means Sale is injured again)

That has a BP of Houck/Crawford, Pivetta, Murphy as 2-3 inning guys. Great.

Moving Pivetta seems at the absolute best like a lateral move at best.
I'll say this. If I'm a fly ball pitcher in his walk year who just lost his rotation spot, who pitches in a hitters' park with a bad defensive outfield for a franchise that just handed their new chief executive a kind of public opinion mandate to acquire 2 to 3 starting pitchers, I'm really hoping to get traded!

I'm curious. If Pivetta puts up the exact same year in 2024 as he just did, would you give him a QO?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I'll say this. If I'm a fly ball pitcher in his walk year who just lost his rotation spot, who pitches in a hitters' park with a bad defensive outfield for a franchise that just handed their new chief executive a kind of public opinion mandate to acquire 2 to 3 starting pitchers, I'm really hoping to get traded!

I'm curious. If Pivetta puts up the exact same year in 2024 as he just did, would you give him a QO?
Just for my personal opinion, the latter (ie would you give Pivetta a QO) depends a great deal on the success of the former (acquiring 2/3 SPs, ostensibly with term beyond 2024).

In a hypothetical world where the Red Sox land any 2 (or 3) of Yamamoto, Montgomery, Cease, Gilbert, Stroman, Keller, or similar that I'm not thinking of, then certainly not.

In a hypothetical world where Yamamoto ends up on the Mets, Montgomery on the Rangers, Cease on the Dodgers, Stroman, Keller and the like elsewhere and the Sox end up being forced to roll with something like Bello, Sale, Crawford, Houck, Kluber and Paxton AND Pivetta has the exact same season, I'd certainly consider it.

Granted - I don't think the latter will happen - but at this point last year I also never would have thought the Boston Red Sox would have the plan (or allow the outcome) for the 2023 season be Kluber, Sale, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Paxton and Pivetta.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yes, I'm all in on the Y2K bandwagon.
Yea, I can’t help but be invested, it’s similar to the DiceK thing of you can just envision whatever the hell you want. It’s so exciting.

Also, people will absolutely not want to believe this, but there is a world where Bloom understood Yoshida and him were close and factored that into the equation in acquiring him.
 

nighthob

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I mean, with the addition that NPB no longer grinds pitchers into the ground before letting them come over. And Yamamoto has a much liver arm than DiceK.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I mean, with the addition that NPB no longer grinds pitchers into the ground before letting them come over. And Yamamoto has a much liver arm than DiceK.
I’m not comparing the two based on talent or ability, just the excitement surrounding an elite NPB talent. It’s like a prospect in that they can be whatever you build up in your mind.
 

iddoc

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Nov 17, 2006
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I mean, with the addition that NPB no longer grinds pitchers into the ground before letting them come over. And Yamamoto has a much liver arm than DiceK.
Are we sure about the latter? DiceK was supposed to have electric stuff, including a 95 mph (back when that was above average) fastball and something called a gyroball, which never seemed to materialize. Indeed there were some red flags (largely overlooked, including on this board) about overuse….speaking of which, didn’t Yamamoto throw 160 pitches in a playoff game last month?
 

nighthob

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@Tokyo Sox will probably have the exact count, but I was under the impression that it was his final NPB game and he wanted to finish it.
 

Tokyo Sox

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Also, people will absolutely not want to believe this, but there is a world where Bloom understood Yoshida and him were close and factored that into the equation in acquiring him.
From last December in the Yoshida thread:
By the way, maybe better for a Red Sox rumors or a wild speculation thread, but if anyone is inclined to give Bloom credit for playing 4D chess, I hope there's some chance this signing makes it easier to get Yoshida's Orix Buffaloes teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto if (when) he makes the move at this time next year. YY is better and younger than Senga and will be the most sought after Japanese player since Ohtani.

I'm obviously hopeful Yoshida makes a successful transition. But I'm *really* hopeful it helps us get Yamamoto too.
If it comes to pass I'll be asking where to collect my internet points. I expect at least 5.

I mean, with the addition that NPB no longer grinds pitchers into the ground before letting them come over.
Abuse in general is down I think, but it's far from gone. And it typically starts in high school. This is from 2018 (bonus Roki Sasaki content & obligatory Daisuke mention):
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/12/62bc917294f4-focus-baseball-high-school-pitch-limits-tip-of-japans-injury-iceberg.html

I was very against YY coming back out for the 9th in that Japan Series game a couple weeks ago - he was on 125 pitches after 8. But he seemed fine, and struck out a couple more guys to get to 14 K's, breaking Darvish's record of 13 strikeouts in a Japan Series game.
 

koufax32

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@Tokyo Sox, what’s the thinking behind these pitching efforts? Is it just machismo/tough guys grind it out/Nolan Ryan-ism? Is it more cultural like an expectation that a pitcher sacrifices his health for his team? IIRC, there was discussion in the Dice-K days of a lingering mindset in Japan that Japanese pitchers are just built tougher than Americans. Is that still prevalent or is that old school racism not as widespread?
Or maybe it’s just as simple as general thinking being that high pitch counts don’t hurt the pitcher?
 

Max Power

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@Tokyo Sox, what’s the thinking behind these pitching efforts? Is it just machismo/tough guys grind it out/Nolan Ryan-ism? Is it more cultural like an expectation that a pitcher sacrifices his health for his team? IIRC, there was discussion in the Dice-K days of a lingering mindset in Japan that Japanese pitchers are just built tougher than Americans. Is that still prevalent or is that old school racism not as widespread?
Or maybe it’s just as simple as general thinking being that high pitch counts don’t hurt the pitcher?
I know that Japanese baseball management believed that the way to build up strength for throwing was to do a lot of throwing. Just like a runner needs to train for a marathon by doing a lot of running, a pitcher should throw a lot of pitches to build up to going a whole game. That idea might not be as prevalent as it was before, but I don't think there's a lot of evidence to show they're wrong. Limiting pitch counts hasn't done a thing to stop pitching injuries here. The only reason guys don't completely flame out at the rate they did in previous decades is because doctors can put them back together with Tommy John surgery.
 

chrisfont9

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I know that Japanese baseball management believed that the way to build up strength for throwing was to do a lot of throwing. Just like a runner needs to train for a marathon by doing a lot of running, a pitcher should throw a lot of pitches to build up to going a whole game. That idea might not be as prevalent as it was before, but I don't think there's a lot of evidence to show they're wrong. Limiting pitch counts hasn't done a thing to stop pitching injuries here. The only reason guys don't completely flame out at the rate they did in previous decades is because doctors can put them back together with Tommy John surgery.
Yeah, and also the high school tournament ("Koshien" named for the Osaka stadium where the finals occur) is a huge deal there, like March Madness here maybe?, so top teams with elite players have a long history of pushing the envelope. Modern pitching science is undoubtedly changing that, as the article says, but that is part of where the tradition came from.
 

sean1562

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I know we are all a little tired of reclamation projects, but what is Frankie Montas' deal? He will be 31 next year and was a pretty good pitcher when he was healthy. He has been good more recently than Paxton and is much younger.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I know we are all a little tired of reclamation projects, but what is Frankie Montas' deal? He will be 31 next year and was a pretty good pitcher when he was healthy. He has been good more recently than Paxton and is much younger.
If he'd take a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, why not? I wouldn't bother with a 40-man roster spot for him until/unless he proved something in spring training first.