#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
I'm starting to buy into the sauna theory. It screams Belichick. Find a loophole in the rule book and exploit it. If found to be what happened, there will be outcry when the Patriots are not punished (because there was no rule prescribing the temp of the air to be pumped in) but there will also be a new rule next year.
It will once again be a case of the Patriots being smarter than the league (although I have zero doubt other teams are doing this too)...
It will once again be a case of the Patriots being smarter than the league (although I have zero doubt other teams are doing this too)...
I have to imagine part of the investigation is calling other teams equipment people and asking if they do the sauna thing. Some will say yes (it will all be on tape, anyway) and that will help the Pats.
Because, if it comes out that's what happened, every local reporter is going to ask their local team if they do the same thing. So the NFL will just look stupid if they throw the book at the Pats only for it to come out that 15 other teams and countless college teams do the same fucking thing.
Whether or not that matters to Goodell or not remains to be seen.
Because, if it comes out that's what happened, every local reporter is going to ask their local team if they do the same thing. So the NFL will just look stupid if they throw the book at the Pats only for it to come out that 15 other teams and countless college teams do the same fucking thing.
Whether or not that matters to Goodell or not remains to be seen.
All the principals (BB, TB, Kraft, NFL) have made statements. Absent the league locating a smoking gun through their initial interviews or review of stadium security or CBS footage, there won't be any new developments for awhile. Any interviews with players will have to go through the NFLPA, which will take even longer because the NFLPA is in no mood to help the NFL these days.grsharky7 said:
Because soft footballs are easier for receivers to catch but harder to intercept. #inanetheoryofthedayMystic Merlin said:
Monbo Jumbo said:
It's amazing that Adam Silver could address banning Donald Sterling and putting the Clippers up for sale 4 days after that became news, but Goodell can't get ahead of this idiotic story of how footballs are inflated in 5 days now.
I would imagine that a lot of the variance in fumbling is driven by the QB and hits to the QB.jose melendez said:
Yeah but the story has been so out of control I can't believe they'd let us rest for a second. I guess all of the absurd theories have been exhausted.
bsj said:
I think what we're seeing here is a desperation theory that is being floated by sources who would love to find something that points away from their basic incompetence. And, by the way, we better hope it's not true because our "everyone does it" defense would become a lot harder to sell. "Yeah, Rodgers puts a few extra puffs in, but these guys baked them to 200 degrees!!". Yeesh.
I actually would be very surprised if the Patriots were doing this. Only if somehow Brady and/or the equipment staff had determined that this type of ball preparation really worked for TB12 could I imagine this would somehow be possible. I give this about .002% chance of being true.
No, the "balls were submitted underinflated, refs don't really check" theory along with a dash of normal temperature processes seems pretty close to the truth at this point. IMHO.
EDIT: Yeah, I'm assuming no one else does this either. If they do, then the chances the Pats were doing it go way up, obviously
Yeah I disagree. The rule book does not indicate temperature of air pumped into balls. Only the pressure at measurement, and that they remain untouched afterwards. I feel like if they saw someone walking into the sauna with the balls they could very easily say "tom likes the balls damp and warm"....as long as this happened before the weighing.TomTerrific said:
It would leave a lousy taste in the mouths of the nation, but what that the patriots do doesn't. No rule broken whatsoever.
And Donovan McNabb has admitted they kept their balls in a steam room so it's not new.
TomTerrific said:
Agreed. There's also no way Belichick and Brady have those press conferences if this is what they were doing.
Peak Oil Can Boyd said:
Yeah, I wanted the hot air theory before the press conferences. Legal, clever, and a big F you to the league. But there's no way they'd give those statements if they were doing this.
SumnerH said:
Well, what in his statement contradicts this? Changing the place they prepare the balls? Why does that invalidate his statement? His words were likely chosen very carefully. And if this is done by a dozen other teams, then BB will not reference it as some crazy, NE-only thing.
"I obviously understand that each team has the opportunity to prepare the balls the way they want, give them to the officials and the game officials either approve or disapprove the balls. That really was the end of it for me until I learned a little bit more about this the last couple days."
Again, if multiple teams do this, BB's statement is right on the nose no matter where they inflate the balls.
A possible problem with the sauna theory is the NFL still has the backup set of 12 balls. If those were heated in the sauna, they would all be roughly 2 PSI below standard, and you can bet the mouthbreathers at league HQ would have leaked that little tidbit. So the sauna theory requires the Pats ballboys to hand off two sealed bags to the refs, one of which would be noticeably warmer than the other. I just don't buy that.
What we do have is Bill's statement that the Pats inflate to 12.5, and they can lose some pressure when going from the locker room to the environment. Everything about his press conference statement implies that he immersed himself in learning the details of the Pats pre-game ball prep process, and all his comments were shared accordingly. He even commented on "learning more on this in the past few days than he'd known in his whole career. And you can bet your ass that "learning" didn't come from reading news reports.
And since the league "destroyed the evidence" (by reinflating the original 12 balls at half time), we'll never know for certain what the PSI really was, nor how much it actually dropped during the half time measurement (everything on that is anecdotal).
Bill had no reason to lie on this, because omitting details like the sauna absolutely would came back to bite him. It was a locker-room-to-field temperature differential. Period. Sometimes the easiest explanations actually are the correct ones.
What we do have is Bill's statement that the Pats inflate to 12.5, and they can lose some pressure when going from the locker room to the environment. Everything about his press conference statement implies that he immersed himself in learning the details of the Pats pre-game ball prep process, and all his comments were shared accordingly. He even commented on "learning more on this in the past few days than he'd known in his whole career. And you can bet your ass that "learning" didn't come from reading news reports.
And since the league "destroyed the evidence" (by reinflating the original 12 balls at half time), we'll never know for certain what the PSI really was, nor how much it actually dropped during the half time measurement (everything on that is anecdotal).
Bill had no reason to lie on this, because omitting details like the sauna absolutely would came back to bite him. It was a locker-room-to-field temperature differential. Period. Sometimes the easiest explanations actually are the correct ones.
Unless this can be 100% proven to be an intentional act by the Patriots, what the hell can the NFL do to them?
What has Goodell done well when it come to anything Patriots related? Since he came on board in 2006 it's been nothing but a shitshow. I guess the Pats decided to start cheating when Roger became commish? Roger's incompetent handling of all Pats issues (especially here with Ballghazi) has done nothing but kill the team's PR. You'd think he would want to protect one of the leagues most prominent teams but all he's done is chop them down.
I enjoy the hot air theory and even posted some math several days ago stating what temperature would be needed to make it work.
In that post I disclaimered(apparently not really a word but I'm keeping it anyway) that it was done for entertainment purposes only.
I think reality is much simpler, the referee's simply give the balls a feel and then move on to actual important things they have to do. This subject simply wasn't important enough up to a few days ago to bother with too much scrutiny.
In that post I disclaimered(apparently not really a word but I'm keeping it anyway) that it was done for entertainment purposes only.
I think reality is much simpler, the referee's simply give the balls a feel and then move on to actual important things they have to do. This subject simply wasn't important enough up to a few days ago to bother with too much scrutiny.
The only reason I struggle with the refs only feeling the balls is that it appears as if the league was alerted to the issue before the game - if that was the case why wouldn't they pressure test them (aside from sting operation)?
They'll lose interest at kickoff, to be honest. If the Pats lose and the game isn't close, then the CW will be that this was a distraction. OTOH, A close game or convincing Pats victory will probably cause most people to shrug and move on, except for established Pats haters.twibnotes said:
Problem is, we don't know for sure that they were alerted, do we?tims4wins said:
I wonder if the colts planned this but didn't say anything to the league. Even if the league is willing to participate in a sting (pathetic if so), the colts wouldn't know that for sure.
Kull said:
Because you just don't give that statement once this has gotten as big as it has. You come out with it at that point--the whole point is that it's not illegal and explains the facts. You don't hide your alibi.
Why are we acting as if its a bad thing for Goodell to let this linger all week? There's going to be a record number of viewers for this game, advertisers are already seeing plus return on their investment, and he's already adopted the position that public perception of him is worthless. There are profits in having everyone and their mother talking about this, baseless assumptions be dammed.
Well, bad for the NFL-- it is certainly bad for the Patriots to let it linger.
Well, bad for the NFL-- it is certainly bad for the Patriots to let it linger.
My thought is that this why there is so little information forthcoming from the league. They have some culpability here in that they did not gauge check the balls, or at least not all of the balls. Or perhaps they used a different gauge for the Colts's (apostrophe correct here?) from the one they used for the Pats before the game. i.e. they had two officials doing the tests or some such. I mean, there's a bunch of different possibilities here, but I have little doubt that the officials did not follow the protocol 100% to the letter or the NFL would have explicitly stated that. The ambiguity that the word "gauge" was not used in that opening paragraph of their statement is the most telling in all of this. They are covering for the officials in that statement IMO.tims4wins said:
I agree with others that if they were doing sauna or steam room shenanigans, there's no way B&B say what they did in each of their press conferences. At worst, it's something Brady knew about, but not Belichick, but I have a hard time buying that (yes I am a fan boy through and through).
Because, they gave a drunk-dial call from Irsay all the attention it deserved, and weren't aware that he was going to keep dialing after the fact?tims4wins said:
DrewDawg said:
Absolutely. Pretending for a moment that the NFL is competent enough to run an actual sting operation, they also would have pressure tested all the balls at the start of the game. Since the league statement is weasel worded on the pre-game test ("inspect the footballs") but clear on the half-time activity ("footballs were properly inflated") and even the end game test ("confirmed at the conclusion of the game to have remained properly inflated"), this looks more and more like a mid-game Colts "gotcha operation".
And no one has yet photoshopped rows of footballs on those benches becauseeeeee......?Corsi said:hmmmm
As a disciple of this thread all week, (I probably have @1,000 views of the almost 600k) I have to say, the fleshing out some theories and science and possibilities of wtf happened is awesome. A couple questions for the more learned.
Is it at all possible, that the PSI rules are out dated and even problematic as the rule was written in the 1930's when passing wasn't a big part of the offensive scheme and the football was essentially totally different? I mean here in RI getting the highway speed limit up to 65 like the rest of the country took forever and don't get me started on selling booze on Sundays at package stores.
If it is possible to affect the internal PSI with heat isn't it possible that kickers would want the ball internal temp low at the official testing, and as it warms up, the PSI increases and makes the ball harder?
Is it at all possible, that the PSI rules are out dated and even problematic as the rule was written in the 1930's when passing wasn't a big part of the offensive scheme and the football was essentially totally different? I mean here in RI getting the highway speed limit up to 65 like the rest of the country took forever and don't get me started on selling booze on Sundays at package stores.
If it is possible to affect the internal PSI with heat isn't it possible that kickers would want the ball internal temp low at the official testing, and as it warms up, the PSI increases and makes the ball harder?
twibnotes said:
And even if they were alerted, how seriously did they take it? IF we are to believe the Colts brought this up after the regular season meeting (and there's been no corroboration of that at all), why would the league wait until the AFC Championship game to act? The Pats played how many games since without any further investigation, or at least a hint of being monitored more closely?
And even if we go with the notion that the Colts alerted the league only in the lead up to the game, again how seriously do you think they took the allegations? Perhaps not enough to give the heads up to the refs to watch things extra close? I could buy that. Goodell had his investigative gestapo ready to march on Foxboro Monday morning but never considered that he'd need the refs on board before the game.
My guess is that it wasn't until the Colts formally protested or complained or whatever during the game that the refs became involved at all. And surprise surprise, they're caught with their pants down because their inspection of the balls pre-game was cursory at best. Now the league is between a rock and a hard place between the desire to "catch" the Patriots and protecting their refs who did their job to the extent that every game in history to that point deemed was enough to get by.
Might I direct your attention to this list. Start from the bottom and work up (any name way at the bottom of that list, like, second from the bottom, look familiar?):Mystic Merlin said:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-interception-rates/2014/
What was the 'correct' temp for over-heated balls to be filled and then drop from 12.5 to (we think) 10.5?
Sumner you earlier wrote that from 70 to 50 was 1psi, from 70 to 40 was 1.5psi. So (guessing) it would only need to be 80d or so to basically make up the difference. It doesn't really need to be a 'sauna' it just needs to be pretty warm.
Like a (poorly ventilated) laundry room or something like that. Even some training or dressing rooms are kept warmer than 70d, to make up for the reduced Clo factor.
Anyway, it's not that hard to believe that some equipment people even know that the pressure would change, and know that Brady likes them softer, and just does it.
It sounded to me that Tom doesn't get into the minutiae of HOW the balls are broken in. He doesn't do it. He doesn't say 'no no guys, rub them for 15 minutes not 10). Over time he just likes them a certain way and as long as he gets them that way he doesn't care how.
It's also possible that they are inflated in a warm room completely ignorantly of the effect it will have.
Sumner you earlier wrote that from 70 to 50 was 1psi, from 70 to 40 was 1.5psi. So (guessing) it would only need to be 80d or so to basically make up the difference. It doesn't really need to be a 'sauna' it just needs to be pretty warm.
Like a (poorly ventilated) laundry room or something like that. Even some training or dressing rooms are kept warmer than 70d, to make up for the reduced Clo factor.
Anyway, it's not that hard to believe that some equipment people even know that the pressure would change, and know that Brady likes them softer, and just does it.
It sounded to me that Tom doesn't get into the minutiae of HOW the balls are broken in. He doesn't do it. He doesn't say 'no no guys, rub them for 15 minutes not 10). Over time he just likes them a certain way and as long as he gets them that way he doesn't care how.
It's also possible that they are inflated in a warm room completely ignorantly of the effect it will have.
Omar's Wacky Neighbor said:
Rodgers has the lowest INT% in league history.
So what's your point? That Rodgers, Wilson and Brady have the lowest INT% because they cheat? My brain might break.
EDIT - Who knew manipulating ball pressure was the difference between being an all-time great QB and a JAG.
From a technical standpoint, the derivation on this play action against the Pats is quite interesting.
Having Irsay and Polian split wide right, with Harbaugh and Ozzie in the backfield is an unusual alignment pre-snap.
By motioning Kravitz, Mort, and Brunell, Aikman was able to identify the Mike and send Jerry Rice and Tony Dungy on a hot route.
This screams of Don Shula, who has been meticulously planning his revenge on the Patriots ever since the dropkick.
They almost got away with it...
What they didn't account for was Tom Brady- his left turn at the end of his presser is the result of years upon years of studying Gisele, and it was magnificent.
I am in awe of the defensive adjustments that BB and MP have made, and i really look forward to seeing what Josh has in store for the Offense : )
Run up the score boys- Seek and Destroy...
duh duh duh duh duh da da da duh duh duh duh da....
Having Irsay and Polian split wide right, with Harbaugh and Ozzie in the backfield is an unusual alignment pre-snap.
By motioning Kravitz, Mort, and Brunell, Aikman was able to identify the Mike and send Jerry Rice and Tony Dungy on a hot route.
This screams of Don Shula, who has been meticulously planning his revenge on the Patriots ever since the dropkick.
They almost got away with it...
What they didn't account for was Tom Brady- his left turn at the end of his presser is the result of years upon years of studying Gisele, and it was magnificent.
I am in awe of the defensive adjustments that BB and MP have made, and i really look forward to seeing what Josh has in store for the Offense : )
Run up the score boys- Seek and Destroy...
duh duh duh duh duh da da da duh duh duh duh da....
Since the specific rule was first posted, my thought was that 12.5-13.5 was a number the league just pulled out of their ass, simply to have an actual number (that kept everyone happy) in the rule book, with no real intent to enforce the number except in extreme cases (like the home team tossing a visiting FG kicker a 6psi ball when the game is on the line).norm from cheers said: