#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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Stitch01

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Any draft pick loss is over the top punishment.  If this was a regular season game it would be buried as the twelfth lead on the NFL section of ESPN.com.  We know this because that's where the Vikings/Panthers story was.   You never know with these clowns of course.
 

lexrageorge

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kartvelo said:
If there were not "ball shenanigans on the sidelines," there should be no penalty whatsoever, because that's the only thing the Pats organization could have done here that would be against the rules.
I was trying to leave open all possibilities, including hanging chads, alien abductions, and purposely miscalibrated pressure gauges.  
 

Corsi

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First, per a league source, the NFL has reviewed the entire process and determined that the balls were properly checked by the officials before the game.  Which means that, when the balls left the possession of the referee, the pressure was at least 12.5 PSI and no more than 13.5 PSI.
 
Second, as to the fact that the officials didn’t notice anything wrong with the balls while handling them after every play, the source explains that a pressure difference of one or two pounds would not be obvious, if the official is not specifically looking for it.
 
In this specific case, the NFL indeed became aware of the issue in the first half — as previously pointed out by Bob Glauber of Newsday.  Per the source, the league opted not to stop the game during the first half but to test the balls at halftime, which they did.
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/21/source-footballs-were-properly-checked-before-colts-patriots-game/
 

Mooch

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If the officials really checked the balls with a gauge prior to the game, Belichick and the Pats are going to get hammered by the league on this.
 

Silverdude2167

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Mooch said:
If the officials really checked the balls with a gauge prior to the game, Belichick and the Pats are going to get hammered by the league on this.
Can you hammer them if you can't prove they did anything? The fact that the balls had less air still does not prove any wrong doing unless you can identify how they lost the air.
 

JimD

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My hope is that the reason the Patriots are being so quiet right now is because they did not tamper with already-inspected footballs.  If true, I have to believe that Kraft would be working behind the scenes to remind Roger Goodell that he supported the commissioner very publicly at his hour of need during the Rice scandal and not to even think of forcing the New England organization to be the sacrificial lamb here when it's clear that multiple teams (if not the whole league) are doing the same thing.
 
My fear is that someone in the Patriots organization did let air out of the balls somehow.  I'm probably done with this team if that happened. 
 

WayBackVazquez

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Mooch said:
If the officials really checked the balls with a gauge prior to the game, Belichick and the Pats are going to get hammered by the league on this.
I see it the other way. There is no fucking way they doctored the balls after the check. I could have believed they intentionally underinflated in the hopes of getting them by, but not this.
 

Ed Hillel

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Mort says indy told the refs prior to the game to monitor this. Combined with the PFT report, looks like the Pats deflated the balls intentionally.

So, as Dev said earlier, lumps are coming. Just accept that and move on, and I guess hope Goodell is reasonable.
 

Catcher Block

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I don't understand why the refs would say anything other than "we checked the balls according to the rulebook." No chance in hell they or the league would fall on this sword. There's still enough grey area that the league, refs, and team can all get out of this without official blame.
 

Leather

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Catcher Block said:
I don't understand why the refs would say anything other than "we checked the balls according to the rulebook." No chance in hell they or the league would fall on this sword. There's still enough grey area that the league, refs, and team can all get out of this without official blame.
 
You and I know that's not happening.  
 

WayBackVazquez

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Ed Hillel said:
Mort says indy told the refs prior to the game to monitor this. Combined with the PFT report, looks like the Pats deflated the balls intentionally.
We have already established that the balls would have lost over 1 PSI from the temperature drop alone. And that the checks themselves likely caused more of a drop. So how on earth do you get there?
 

soxfan80000001

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Byrdbrain said:
So just for giggles I played with some numbers to see what temperature the gas in the ball would have had to have been if it was measured before the game so that it would pass the test then but 10.5 psig when measured at halftime.
The magic number is 312k or about 102F.
 
So the Pats could have warmed up the balls to the temperature and/or put gas of that temperature in and it would explain everything.
 
Disclaimer:This is for entertainment purposes only I do not think this is what happened.
Scientist here, confirming that recent studies have shown that 4/5 people do calculations on this incorrectly.
 

86spike

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WayBackVazquez said:
We have already established that the balls would have lost over 1 PSI from the temperature drop alone. And that the checks themselves likely caused more of a drop. So how on earth do you get there?
 
You are assuming that the balls' PSI was remeasured outside.  I don't see anything that says they absolutely were re-measured outside.  
 
If the refs took the balls back inside for the re-check, all this weather-related math is moot, yes?
 

Catcher Block

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drleather2001 said:
 
You and I know that's not happening.  
My only thought is that they wrap it up before the SB with a "we don't know exactly what happened, but new procedures will be in place next year," in order to avoid the "Pats Cheated, Won, NFL doesn't care" headlines.
 

Mooch

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I think it's entirely plausible that the Colts had a former New England employee, player or coach (or possibly a friendly media person) who knew that it was SOP for the Patriots to deflate footballs prior to games. They told the refs to look for it and when the Colts got hold of one, gave it to the refs and the NFL as evidence to do a spot check. You can do all sorts of mental gymnastics to convince yourself otherwise but this rings the most true to me based on the information presented thusfar and it is certainly in line with what happened in 2007 with Spygate.
 
And it pisses me off as a Patriots fan.
 

CaptainLaddie

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JimD said:
My hope is that the reason the Patriots are being so quiet right now is because they did not tamper with already-inspected footballs.  If true, I have to believe that Kraft would be working behind the scenes to remind Roger Goodell that he supported the commissioner very publicly at his hour of need during the Rice scandal and not to even think of forcing the New England organization to be the sacrificial lamb here when it's clear that multiple teams (if not the whole league) are doing the same thing.
 
My fear is that someone in the Patriots organization did let air out of the balls somehow.  I'm probably done with this team if that happened. 
 
Do you have season tickets?  I'll take them off your hands.
 
 

Byrdbrain

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soxfan80000001 said:
Scientist here, confirming that recent studies have shown that 4/5 people do calculations on this incorrectly.
Engineer here who works with pressure and vacuum every day, care to explain what I did wrong?
 

simplyeric

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djbayko said:
No, I think H78 is referring to the time required for the air inside the ball to reach equilibrium with the outside temp. This is not instantaneous, but intuition tells me it's much less than 3 hours. I'm on my phone now, but it can be calculated using Newton's law of cooling.
 
SumnerH commented on this but:  there isn't all that much thermal mass to a ball, and not all that much insulation either.  Air, particulary air under pressure that can convect within an ancolsure, loses heat fairly quickly.  If anyone has bought new windows lately: this is why insulated-glazing-unit glass has a narrow air gap, that is sometimes evacuated.  The narrow gap between panes of glass inhibits convection, and the vacuum provides fewer molecules to transfer hear to the surfaces.
 
Other things that would affect how fast the ball would come to temp:  passing and wind (air movement), and water (because it absorbs heat faster than air).
If you had 2 warm footballs, and put one in a dry sheltered area, and exposed the other one to the elements, the exposed one would reach ambient temp much faster.
 
Anyway, the short answer is:  I don't know the numbers, but I don't think it would take very long at all for the balls (even in a bag/box) to reach pretty close to ambient outdoor temp.  The last couple of degrees might take a while.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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lexrageorge said:
As much as I hate to jump in on the penalty speculation given that we still have precious little information on what may have happened, I'd say such a punishment would be way over the top.
 
This is not a player safety issue (which Bounty-gate was), nor is it a personal conduct issue (no laws were broken).  Nor is it as serious as Belichick's blatantly ignoring Goodell's memo on videotaping.  If the Pats follow through on their vow to "fully cooperate with the investigation" (which the Saints did not, btw), then the most I can see is a series of fines and potentially the loss of mid-round draft pick, which is a fairly serious penalty in its own right.  If there were indeed ball shenanigans on the sideline maybe that becomes a second round pick. 
If you think the penalty is going to be determined chiefly by the impact on the game, you're dreaming.  This is a PR goatfuck, the latest in a long line of goatfucks this season, and the prospect of putting the hammer down on the "bad boy" coach as a way of restoring law and order as well as appeasing the 31 other teams is going to be mightily tempting.
 

TomRicardo

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EpsteinsGorillaSuit said:
This thread is a horrorshow of speculation and rationalization and I'm not going back to see if anyone has thrown out any actual math in it.
 
I'm a chemist. The effect of temperature on the pressure of a football is easy to figure out assuming the ideal gas law, which should be accurate enough for this problem. PV = nRT, where P is pressure, V is volume, n is the number of gas molecules (should not change in absence of deflation), R is the ideal gas constant, and T is temperature (in Kelvin, not Fahrenheit).
 
This equation shows that a ball inflated/tested at 70 degrees F (294 K) and then tested again after coming to temperature at 40 degrees (278 K, colder than game temp) would measure 94% (278/294) of the original pressure. An unadultered ball inflated to 13 PSI at 70 degrees would read 12.2 PSI at 40 degrees or 12.5 PSI at 50 degrees. 
 
You would have to cool the ball down to -10 F for it to reach 11 PSI, two pounds below its original pressure.
 
Congrats on getting the math wrong like other people in the thread.  Absolute pressure nitwit.
 
Edit - How can you claim to be a Chemist and not know that?  Seriously we aren't talking about AP Chemistry here.  That is like a problem from middle school chemistry class.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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86spike said:
 
You are assuming that the balls' PSI was remeasured outside.  I don't see anything that says they absolutely were re-measured outside.  
 
If the refs took the balls back inside for the re-check, all this weather-related math is moot, yes?
 
well they'd have to wait for the interior temperatures of the balls to reach the interior temperature of the building. That would take quite a bit longer than the 15 mins they have for halftime. 
 

H78

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If I'm every other team in the NFL, I'm probably pretty pissed at the Colts right now. The Pats were wrong for doing this, but to actually be the team that reports it - as if it's really the reason you're constantly losing by 20+ points - now puts a special spotlight on ball quality before every single NFL game moving forward.
 
Rodgers now will have to live with 12.5-13.5 PSI. Balls will likely no longer be used for practice. Manning and Brady will no longer get to "scrub" the game balls or whatever before games. Whatever anyone else does - forget it.
 
All because of your sour grapes, Pagano and Co.
 

SumnerH

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86spike said:
 
You are assuming that the balls' PSI was remeasured outside.  I don't see anything that says they absolutely were re-measured outside.  
 
If the refs took the balls back inside for the re-check, all this weather-related math is moot, yes?
 
Basically, yeah.  Unless they ran inside and measured them before they warmed up.
 

Ed Hillel

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WayBackVazquez said:
We have already established that the balls would have lost over 1 PSI from the temperature drop alone. And that the checks themselves likely caused more of a drop. So how on earth do you get there?
So were Indy's overinflated pregame? All else equal, their balls would have been below level as well, which was not the case apparently.
 

Byrdbrain

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86spike said:
 
You are assuming that the balls' PSI was remeasured outside.  I don't see anything that says they absolutely were re-measured outside.  
 
If the refs took the balls back inside for the re-check, all this weather-related math is moot, yes?
The temperature would take some time to reach equilibrium so if the balls were brought in and tested right away there would be no significant change.
 
FYI no one is really saying the temperature made this happen, if this were the icebowl then maybe but not at 45 degrees and not when the Colts balls were within spec(if that part is true).
 

Stitch01

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JimD said:
My hope is that the reason the Patriots are being so quiet right now is because they did not tamper with already-inspected footballs.  If true, I have to believe that Kraft would be working behind the scenes to remind Roger Goodell that he supported the commissioner very publicly at his hour of need during the Rice scandal and not to even think of forcing the New England organization to be the sacrificial lamb here when it's clear that multiple teams (if not the whole league) are doing the same thing.
 
My fear is that someone in the Patriots organization did let air out of the balls somehow.  I'm probably done with this team if that happened. 
hahahaohwow.
 
Hate to break it to you, but Santa Claus isn't real and Id bet this isnt even in the top ten things the Pats did this year that were against the letter of the rule book in terms of effecting game outcome
 

The Social Chair

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H78 said:
If I'm every other team in the NFL, I'm probably pretty pissed at the Colts right now. The Pats were wrong for doing this, but to actually be the team that reports it - as if it's really the reason you're constantly losing by 20+ points - now puts a special spotlight on ball quality before every single NFL game moving forward.
 
Rogers now will have to live with 12.5-13.5 PSI. Balls will likely no longer be used for practice. Manning and Brady will no longer get to "scrub" the game balls or whatever before games. Whatever anyone else does - forget it.
 
All because of your sour grapes, Pagano and Co.
 
Pretty sure other organizations enjoy Belichick schadenfreude more than they care about losing ball scrubbing. 
 

H78

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The Social Chair said:
 
Pretty sure they enjoy Belichick schadenfreude more than they care about losing ball scrubbing. 
 
Maybe the coaches, but probably not their quarterbacks.
 

lexrageorge

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P'tucket said:
If you think the penalty is going to be determined chiefly by the impact on the game, you're dreaming.  This is a PR goatfuck, the latest in a long line of goatfucks this season, and the prospect of putting the hammer down on the "bad boy" coach as a way of restoring law and order as well as appeasing the 31 other teams is going to be mightily tempting.
I would think player safety issues and player's personal conduct are much bigger PR goatfucks than deflated balls.  Sure, the media is running with the story now, but some of that is because the NFL is taking it's own sweet time to announce anything. 
 
Also, loss of draft picks is a pretty serious penalty.  
 

86spike

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DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
 
well they'd have to wait for the interior temperatures of the balls to reach the interior temperature of the building. That would take quite a bit longer than the 15 mins they have for halftime. 
 
There are a bunch of posts here saying that transition happens relatively quickly.  We also don't know for sure (no official reports on anything yet) whether or not the second check happened at the half or after the game or the next day.
 
Maybe we'll get solid info on that, maybe we won't.
 
All of the prognosticating about the math in the meantime could be totally off until all of those details are revealed.
 

wiffleballhero

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The bladder stretches. The pressure on the balls from the run game would matter. A stretched bladder would soften the ball, increase capacity and change PSI.
The Colts time of possession would limit the damage to their balls.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Ed Hillel said:
So were Indy's overinflated pregame? If we take the 13PSI at face level, Indy's would have been below level as well with similar drops.
I don't know. Did the refs measure Indy's at halftime? Did they measure them after they measured the Patriots'?
 

Ed Hillel

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WayBackVazquez said:
I don't know. Did the refs measure Indy's at halftime? Did they measure them after they measured the Patriots'?
Apparently they did and all were regulation.

I would like to know the measures for all 11 footballs. Were they all 10.5? Was 10.5 the worst and others slightly below?
 

Devizier

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drleather2001 said:
My thinking is that, outside of New York, Indy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver, nobody is going to care that much about this.
 
From what I can tell, people in Pittsburgh don't care. Once the Steelers are eliminated, it's like the NFL doesn't exist anymore.
 

86spike

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Mort is on ESPN right now predicting an official NFL statement/details today or tomorrow.
 
Then he's going into depth about how Indy felt NE was using under-inflated balls in their earlier game this year and were ready to make a stink about it.
 

simplyeric

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One issue for all the good math and bad math PV=nRT stuff:
 
all of the calculations we've seen assume a constant volume, no?  If you're only solving to one variable (P) in relation to all the others.
 
(I'm not sure what the assumed internal volume of a football is).
 
But a football is a flexible container.  a. the cooler temp would contract the container some, but b. what effect might the cooler temp have on the containment pressure of the football?  The "looser" the container, the lower the pressure, for the same number of molecules.  While the cold might contract the material of the leather and bladder, it might have other effect on the binding and lacing.  
 
My guess is it would tend to very slighy counteract the temperature/pressure connection, but I don't really know.
 
 
 

wiffleballhero said:
The bladder stretches. The pressure on the balls from the run game would matter. A stretched bladder would soften the ball, increase capacity and change PSI.
The Colts time of possession would limit the damage to their balls.
 
 
 
Also the above:  what compounding changes would wear and impact have?  
 
 
This bears on the "2psi below accepted"
 
Was it confirmed that multiple balls were at 10.5psi (2 below the 12.5 lower value)?
 
Or was it "2 below" the standard of 13psi, and thus at 11psi (and this only 1.5psi low)?
 
What was the deviation?  Where a bunch of them at 12, some at 11, a couple at 10.5 and one at 10?  Or were they all around 10.5?
 

Leather

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This whole fucking situation is boiling down to a stupid Family Circus trope.
 
 

Norm loves Vera

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For the life of me, I can't see the official ball boy deflating the balls out on the field in front of fans/cameras and such. And for the ball boy to do it in Indy (as was insinuated) in front of a hostile crowd.. that takes moxie.
 

Byrdbrain

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wiffleballhero said:
The bladder stretches. The pressure on the balls from the run game would matter. A stretched bladder would soften the ball, increase capacity and change PSI.
The Colts time of possession would limit the damage to their balls.
If you have anything that backs up I'd be really interested in seeing it until that happens I'm going to assume you are just making shit up.
 

Devizier

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Oil Can Dan said:
I find it hard to believe a ball boy could deflate 11 balls during a game on a sideline. Apologies if the specific chain-of-command has already been laid out, but what is it? Refs check the balls two hours till kickoff and then what, exactly?
 
Simplest explanation is that the referees are lazy, the Patriots submitted the 12th (spec inflated) ball for their pregame check, and the other eleven went unchecked.
 

tims4wins

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86spike said:
Mort is on ESPN right now predicting an official NFL statement/details today or tomorrow.
 
Then he's going into depth about how Indy felt NE was using under-inflated balls in their earlier game this year and were ready to make a stink about it.
 
The game in which Brady threw 2 picks and Jonas Gray ran for 200? How fucking dumb is that?