NBA 2014-2015 Game Thread
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And the refs blew the call, too. Only 0.3 seconds left, there shouldn't have been time to catch the ball and get the shot up the way he did. Looked like the clock started late.BigSoxFan said:
The in-bounds pass looked like it was tipped, as well, so the clock should have started.
Ruh roh for the Nets. DWill getting his leg looked at on the bench.
edit: its his right ankle and he has his shoe off. No es bueno.
edit: its his right ankle and he has his shoe off. No es bueno.
Sweet creamy hell, the Dubs are kicking the shit out of the Nets to end the second quarter (21-6 run). And Steph Curry has only two points.
Deron Williams is back too. It doesn't matter.
Deron Williams is back too. It doesn't matter.
This Memphis team is just a machine. I'd love to see what they could do if they added another shooter at deadline. He may never quite be the same, but if Denver continues to play this horribly and decides to make some deadline deals, Danillo Gallinari in Memphis would fit well.
You think the Grizz are going to unload Allen? That's insane. He's their glue and leader of that team.Blacken said:
I think it's likely. The Grizzlies are going to have to make a move to contend, and it seems like they want to. They desperately need a wing who can create and Allen's defense, while great (I mean, I love the guy), isn't enough to make up for the lack of offense elsewhere in the starting lineup.
The best way to instill a long-term culture is to win games in the playoffs (see: Spurs, San Antonio). To that end, anybody is replaceable (save for LeBron James and maybe Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant).
The best way to instill a long-term culture is to win games in the playoffs (see: Spurs, San Antonio). To that end, anybody is replaceable (save for LeBron James and maybe Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant).
Blacken said:
For the record, this Memphis core has held their own against the top teams in the West in the playoffs in recent years. All seven of their series in the last four seasons have somehow been against SAS/OKC/LAC, they knocked each of those teams out once and lost the other four series. They went 21-21 in games overall in those series, so I don't think it's clear at all that they should break up that core as opposed to trying to add an additional impact player somehow.
Nowhere did I say "blow the team up". In today's NBA, Tony Allen isn't a core player. He might be Captain Intangibles, and he does have very very good defense to offer--but they need more starting scoring and I don't know how they do that without giving up a piece another team needs. Allen is the most replaceable talent of that team. If Allen's an A+ perimeter defender, B+/A- guys who can score about as well as Allen--that is to say, not--can be found cheap. As it happens, the Clips really need some help on the wing and have more than enough scoring to deal with it; I think it makes sense both ways.
If that doesn't happen, I don't know what the Grizzlies do to supplement their scoring. And there are few enough options for the Clips to fix their wing issues, too, because they don't have a lot of trade chips outside of Redick and Crawford.
If that doesn't happen, I don't know what the Grizzlies do to supplement their scoring. And there are few enough options for the Clips to fix their wing issues, too, because they don't have a lot of trade chips outside of Redick and Crawford.
If I'm Memphis I'm not trading Allen for a shooter. They're a very good team right now based on one of the best Ds in the league, a middle of the pack offense and a commitment to a slow pace. Allen is maybe the best perimeter defender in the league, and they are getting plenty of shooting from Lee when they put him in. Someone like Reddick hurts the defense far more than he helps the offense, especially with the pace they play and their offense based on getting the ball inside.
All in all I don't see any reason the Grizzlies should be looking to make a change, they are playing great and have one of the toughest rosters in the league.
That is a great deal for LAC and makes tons of sense for them, but Memphis doesn't really have a need for a shooter who can't defend.
All in all I don't see any reason the Grizzlies should be looking to make a change, they are playing great and have one of the toughest rosters in the league.
That is a great deal for LAC and makes tons of sense for them, but Memphis doesn't really have a need for a shooter who can't defend.
If course they aren't trading Allen. That would be mindnumbingly dumb. This is a team looking to build for the playoffs and the most valuable complimentary piece a contender can have is a perimeter stopper.Cellar-Door said:
BigSoxFan said:
Moving on from Kobe would have let them win a few more games this year, but they'd still be awful. An overpaid Kobe is still a draw for their fans, and helps them hold on to a top 5 pick.
Similarly if I were running a bad team trying to tank, I would want to add a couple of guys like Josh Smith rather than going the firesale route like Philly.
The Lakers will build their next contender by enticing a superstar to bolt on his current team and play his prime years in LA. Kicking Kobe to the curb in his twilight years would hurt their recruiting efforts.
(I realize paying Kobe in line with his current talents isn't "kicking him to the curb" by any reasonable standard, but we aren't dealing with reasonable people.)
(I realize paying Kobe in line with his current talents isn't "kicking him to the curb" by any reasonable standard, but we aren't dealing with reasonable people.)
They would have kicked Kobe to the curb if they thought they had a chance to LBJ. But they didn't, and Melo/Bosh isn't a title-winning core (and those guys weren't willing to leave money on the table to switch teams). So, they decided to keep Kobe happy and set themselves up to be big players in the 2016 market.BigSoxFan said:
BigSoxFan said:
That's precisely why they aren't hurt by giving Kobe that contract though. The rest of the league is well aware of the fact that they don't have a decent core and have a bad front office. Even if Kobe were gone, why would Durant choose the rest of the Lakers roster over teaming up with a team in the east closer to his hometown with more talent on the roster?
The Lakers need to tank a bit to clear out their bad contracts and get some young players.
How dare you question Blacken!HomeRunBaker said:
Tony Allen for JJ Redick makes zero sense for the Grizzlies. Redick was just signed through his age 34 season at more money than he should have been paid. He's also a horrific defender. It makes absolutely zero sense and we are all dumber for having read the $130K per year mans suggestion.
If you want a guy who launches shots off the bench as Blacken is absurdly suggesting, you don't trade the best defensive player in the game for it. You sign or trade nothing for what is the most replaceable skillset in the game of basketball.
Jordan Crawford will be free from his China contract in a couple months. Sign him and don't give up Allen.
They ready have the guy leading the league in 3-point pct and a career 39% in Lee and they did sign a shooter off the bench last summer in Vince Carter......and they are 9-1!knucklecup said:
The Grizzlies are 6th in the West in point differential. I would love to proved wrong, but I don't see any reason to think Memphis is something other than the "team that no contender wants to play in the first round" that they've been the past few years. They're not young enough to hope for organic improvement, and they're too good to expect material help from the draft.
I'm not necessarily sold on TA for Redick, but the Grizzlies definitely should be looking to take risks and do something big.
I'm not necessarily sold on TA for Redick, but the Grizzlies definitely should be looking to take risks and do something big.
I think it's a bit too early to lean on MOV. NO, who is one spot above MEM went from about 1 ppg MOV to over 7 in one blowout of the Wolves.maufman said:
Scoring differential and W-L record are both subject to SSS caveats this early in the season. But if anything, the small sample means we should place more emphasis, not less, on the metric that has more predictive value -- especially where, as here, that metric is roughly in line with the team's recent track record and preseason expectations.Cellar-Door said:
This is correct. MOV is more important early in the season, and W-L is less important. Later in the year, the two begin to converge.maufman said:
For a variety of reasons, I keep a running, daily updating spreadsheet that tracks each team's strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory. I then do a further regression to the mean to reduce the emphasis on early results (essentially adding a number of "dummy games" to smooth the results). I then I convert those regressed results to project each team's chances of winning every game remaining on their schedule. All my coefficients/exponents are based on maximizing predictive accuracy going forward. By this point in the year, the current season results can explain a lot of the rest of the season (this is based on the average R^2 on this date between the current projections and the actual results for historic seasons). The R^2 between a team's current power rating and their final one is well over 0.5 by now, and between their power rating and their remaining wins is ~.45.
My projected standings:
Obviously this doesn't know about injuries, so the Thunder are a good bet to come in over the number, but I do agree it look like that there's nothing "special" going on with the Grizzlies.
For comparisons's sake, Jeremias Engelmann, creator of ESPN's RPM, runs his own version of this based on his own research. His method is better than mine, as it also takes into account factors I do not, such as back to backs and pace:
https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/533943674884087808/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/533943674884087808/photo/1
The data does not take into account the Grizzlies history in regards to outperforming their Expexted W-L which they have done in 4 of the past 5 years including last season with essentially the same team by a pretty significant margin. How does this factor in a projection based on point differential or should it? This is a 400+ game sample of outperforming the projection with this core roster......at what point is this more than an abberation and a true indicator?bowiac said:
That's a good thing to poke around with, and it's on my list of things to look at (looking at you Kevin Love). However, even then, the Grizzlies are only +2 wins/year relative their pythag under Hollins and this core. Even if that's 100% real, a bump up by 2 wins doesn't change things dramatically for them. It's not like they're going way over normally.
To compare, Love was -4.2 wins a year with the Wolves, going under their pythag every single season. The man is a vampire.
To compare, Love was -4.2 wins a year with the Wolves, going under their pythag every single season. The man is a vampire.
No I doubt the move would ever be dramatic but if you historically outperform even by 2-wins and underperform by greater than 4 (wow!) it is fairly significant. "My eyes" tell me that a slower pace, defensive oriented team would be more likely to outperform Expected while the looser faster paced team would Underperform. No idea if the data shows this to be actually true.bowiac said:
I've looked for pace/offensive/defensive effects (and many other factors) with Pythagorean records and never found anything other than pure noise. I've never looked at "persistence effects" however (same team doing poorly year after year). I need to build out a coaching database to do that coherently, as I suspect I'd find mostly nothing without taking into account coaching.HomeRunBaker said:
My gut is mostly that there is something to it however. I don't think it's a pace/defense thing however, and I don't even think it's a depth thing (deep teams would tend to underperform intuitively).
bowiac said:This is correct. MOV is more important early in the season, and W-L is less important. Later in the year, the two begin to converge.
For a variety of reasons, I keep a running, daily updating spreadsheet that tracks each team's strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory. I then do a further regression to the mean to reduce the emphasis on early results (essentially adding a number of "dummy games" to smooth the results). I then I convert those regressed results to project each team's chances of winning every game remaining on their schedule. All my coefficients/exponents are based on maximizing predictive accuracy going forward. By this point in the year, the current season results can explain a lot of the rest of the season (this is based on the average R^2 on this date between the current projections and the actual results for historic seasons). The R^2 between a team's current power rating and their final one is well over 0.5 by now, and between their power rating and their remaining wins is ~.45.
My projected standings:
Obviously this doesn't know about injuries, so the Thunder are a good bet to come in over the number, but I do agree it look like that there's nothing "special" going on with the Grizzlies.
42-40 and a 7 seed for the Celtics! Woo-hoo!
Does green = playoffs? Why are there 9 green teams in the West?
Green is supposed to represent being above .500, but when I copy/pasted into another worksheet so I could make that graphic, I screwed up the dynamic shading.radsoxfan said:
I'm reasonably high on the Celtics however, especially if Smart comes back soon. They're picking up a lot of credit for losing to the Mavericks by 5 on the road.
Kobe in full on EFF YOU mode tonight with 17 points (on 7-13 shooting) after one quarter. Warriors 34, Tankshow 23
Holy shit, Curry. 26 points (on 15 fga), 11 assists in 24 minutes.
Showing Kobe how to play team basketball.
Of course, Steph actually has a team, but still.
Showing Kobe how to play team basketball.
Of course, Steph actually has a team, but still.
Hahaha, this his high comedy right now.
Kobe with 40 points with 2 minutes left in the third quarter.
Warriors lead, 109-75.
Edit: 115-79 Warriors through 3.
Kobe 44 points (15-34 fg, 11-16 ft), 3 assists
Curry 30 points (10-19 fg, 5-5 ft), 16 assists
Kobe with 40 points with 2 minutes left in the third quarter.
Warriors lead, 109-75.
Edit: 115-79 Warriors through 3.
Kobe 44 points (15-34 fg, 11-16 ft), 3 assists
Curry 30 points (10-19 fg, 5-5 ft), 16 assists
Kobe's On/Off is -20.2 so far this year. This is just basic, unadjusted on court/off court stuff. The minutes leaders on the 76ers last year were in the area of -5.
You can't search on/off on B-Ref's play index, but I suspect -20 is unprecedented.
You can't search on/off on B-Ref's play index, but I suspect -20 is unprecedented.
Tonight won't help that:bowiac said:
Kobe on court (31 minutes): -34
Kobe off court (17 minutes): +13
Kobe is about due to pull his "refuse to shoot" game to show the world how the Lakers will lose by 60 on nights he doesn't put up 40. Yeah he's probably right and all but still.
BigSoxFan said:
The Lakers. If they deal him, they will have a lot of empty seats. The Knicks would do that in a cocaine heartbeat.
Thankfully, they cant do that, thanks to Ted Stepian. But even if they could, I dont think the Knicks do it. All their fan base has to hang their hat on right now is that pick and next summer's cap space; Phil knows better than to waste both of those things on an inefficient 36 year old.
BigSoxFan said:
How does Kobe improve the Knicks, exactly? To maximize Carmelo's prime, the best course of action is to go all in on some bigs next summer. They're running the triple post offense and two of their "posts" are Jason Smith and Samuel Dalembert. Carmelo and Kobe taking turns chucking up shots isn't a winning proposition. I don't see how it helps them get any closer to what they're trying to build.
Kobe has a no trade, doesn't he? I doubt if he agrees to leave LA at this stage of his career, unless it's a trade to a contender.
BigSoxFan said:
I'm. . .not sure what you're talking about. When you say nobody gets to FA these days, who are you talking about? Restricted free agents? If that's what you mean, yeah, sure. But otherwise, everybody gets to free agency now. It's basically written into the CBA that they have to get to free agency. This past summer LeBron, Bosh, Dirk, Carmelo, Lowry, Wade, Gortat, Pau, and plenty of others got to free agency. The year prior, Howard, Millsap, Chris Paul, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, and David West all got to free agency. This summer bigs like Marc Gasol, Millsap, Monroe, Aldridge, Robin Lopez, and DeAndre Jordan will all be unrestricted free agents and Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, David West, and Kevin Love have player options that they'll all likely execute.
I'm not saying all of those guys are realistic targets for the Knicks, or that all of those guys will leave their current teams. But the Knicks are certainly going to target a number of those guys and I think they prefer those options to paying Kobe 25 million for his age 37 season.
