The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
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Yep. And some folks were saying this last year while he was going 10-7 and generally exceeding expectations of a rookie QB. Nobody wins the Tour de France with training wheels on.
Yep. And as they open things up for Mac, they're willing to live with some real growing pains in the process. Mac isn't necessarily "regressing". He's growing into a totally new thing, and of course there are going to be bumps (sometimes huge ones) along the way.
Agreed.
We need to get used to the emotional roller-coaster as a fanbase. He hasn't gone from Goat 2.0 to a Jets' draftee.
Some of the latter two is play calling, but probably far more of it (particularly tight window) is Zappe. He's just not going to take chances because he knows that his job is mostly to not turn it over.
Correct, and doubtful is 25% or less. League isn't going to encourage teams to push to activate players that are listed as doubtful. Apparently, the league does track the questionables and does expect that over a course of an entire season that they average out to roughly 50/50 active/inactive, at least when it comes to the final injury report of the week.
I'm pretty sure that everyone was gaming the doubtful/questionable thing, so that's why they went to a system where you have to declare level of participation in practice. That's a little more reliable. Teams won't sit a guy out and give him no reps and then 50 snaps on game day just for gamesmanship purposes.
Right; progress isn’t always linear. And it can be frustrating not to know if what we’re seeing is a hitch in long term progress or
something like the league figuring him out, but that’s just how reality works.
Nice article. Zappe deserves credit and increased visibility after the Lions game. We’re on to Cleveland.
Not really sure I understand the overall conclusion here (feels like early stage Gammons updates)...but...
View: https://twitter.com/MikeGiardi/status/1580246178586763264
View: https://twitter.com/MikeGiardi/status/1580246178586763264
I’m not a doctor but it seems like the return from an injury can be determined by three separate things:
- Pain management/tolerance
- Threat of reinjury/worsening
- The injury’s impact on doing your job
I think the only conclusion that can be drawn is that Belichick's lukewarm endorsement has motivated Jones to get out of the tub and back onto the club, as whispers of Mac Pipp filter down through Foxborough.
(I AM JOKING. But I expect that more than zero "sports" "talk" radio mouthbreathers will say something quite close.)
(I AM JOKING. But I expect that more than zero "sports" "talk" radio mouthbreathers will say something quite close.)
As Bob Montgomery would say, it looks like he's got a little hitch in his giddyup.
Dealing with some instability…. Who knows exactly how precise they are being with the wording, but generally speaking that’s not great.
The benefit of the tightrope surgery is there is so much less guesswork for the player and medical staff. After a month there isn’t any “instability” and you can usually play without much long term risk. It’s easy to see why reports suggested the team wanted him to get surgery.
High ankle sprain healing can be variable and hard to predict. Coming back with “some instability” risks lingering long term problems. I hope it’s a 3-4 week non op recovery but I’m sure at this point everyone (aside from Mac I guess) just wishes he got the surgery.
I wonder if BB is annoyed and that has anything to do with his semi-curious response to the Zappe questions.
Sounds like moderate progress. I don’t think this team is good enough to call any game a certain win, particularly with your 3rd string QB. But the next 2 probably come as close to that as possible. I hope they target 10/30 vs the Jets as his earliest possible return date, and give him time for further healing/stabilizing.
Damn, that line surprises me a bit. I’d still err on the side of caution with Mac.
They definitely can’t come in and expect the offense to compensate for turnovers or bad play on defense and special teams. If they limit mistakes these next two games should be very favorable. Mac should get as close to 100% as possible before he returns.
A "high ankle sprain" is an injury to the ligaments holding the distal tibia and fibula together.
Instead of waiting to let them heal on their own (sometimes slow and variable), you can essentially tie the bones together so they are stable as the ligaments heal.
It's basically a rope across the 2 bones (I often see 2, in this X-Ray image only 1) to keep them in place. On X-ray you don’t see the “rope”, just the 2 buttons on each side and if you look closely, the bone tunnel going across.
The older techniques use long metal screws but the return to play is shorter with tightrope.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09xBExczvzU
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Wanted to ask a provocative question to stimulate some discussion ...
What would you need to see in order to start Zappe over a fully-recovered Mac?
We know that the Patriots have run a dumbed-down offense for Bailey, but multiple posts in the Lions game thread referenced how much better Zappe moved around in the pocket than Mac (particularly with stepping up in the pocket), thereby buying his receivers a precious extra second or two. We also know that the Lions D was terrible, and its secondary was significantly injury-depleted.
Nevertheless, I found it Belichick's quote about Zappe after the Lions game very interesting: "“He does a good job of seeing the game and can come off and identify and articulate what happened, and that’s usually right. What he saw is usually what I saw, or maybe when you look at the film, maybe there’s something that’s a little gray in there that his explanation is actually good. It was the way he saw it. He might not have done the right thing, but he saw the game.” It's faint praise, but still sounds like BB is saying that Bailey sees the game the same way as he does. And we know that Bill doesn't necessarily overvalue QB pedigree.
Here's what I need to see from Zappe against better quality competition going forward:
1. Continued limiting of QB miscues and negative plays (penalties, sacks, turnovers).
In 2 games, Zappe has had 6 miscues -- 1 delay of game penalty, 3 sacks taken, and 2 turnovers (1 INT and 1 fumble). 5 of those miscues came against the Packers and the 1 miscue in the Lions game was really on Agholor.
In 3 games, Mac has had 12 miscues -- 6 sacks taken (including an intentional grounding) and 6 turnovers (5 INT and 1 fumble). Last season, in 18 games, he had 59 miscues -- 9 delay of game penalties, 32 sacks taken (including an intentional grounding) and 18 turnovers (a few of which weren't his fault).
2. Continued high passing accuracy and productivity
In 2 games, Zappe has had a 75% completion percentage and 8.0 yards per attempt. Both stats are excellent. It is worth noting, however, that Zappe has had 13 passes completed of 10 yards or more versus 7 non-TD passes completed of 4 yards or less (less than a 2:1 ratio). This will need to improve going forward.
In 3 games, Mac has had a 66% completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt. Mac has had 29 passes completed of 10 yards or more versus 9 non-TD passes completed of 4 yards or less (more than a 3:1 ratio).
Last year in 18 games, Mac had a 67% completion percentage and 7.2 yards per attempt. He had 152 passes completed of 10 yards or more versus 61 non-TD passes passes completed of 4 yards or less (roughly a 2.5:1 ratio).
3. Efficient per drive offensive numbers
Thus far in 2022, the Zappe-led offense has produced 2.12 points per non-clock-killing drive (over 17 drives), which is unremarkable.
In comparison, the Mac-led offense has produced 1.72 points per drive (over 29 drives), which is the kind of performance that threatens a QB's ongoing job security. Last year, the Mac-led offense produced 2.66 points per drive (over 154 drives). Those numbers were goosed by 3 games (NYJ, CLE and JAX) where the Mac-led offense produced over 5 points per drive. Without those 3 games, the Mac-led offense produced 2.17 points per drive (over 138 drives).
4. Pocket presence
Pro Football Reference has an interesting statistical split around time to throw in the pocket that I'd never seen before.
Less Than 2.5 seconds
Mac 2021 73% completion pct / 6.7 YPA / 15 TD 8 INT in 292 Att
Mac 2022 60% completion pct / 5.3 YPA / 1 TD 3 INT in 52 Att
Zappe 2022 84% completion pct / 6.3 YPA / 0 TD 1 INT in 19 Att
2.5 seconds or More
Mac 2021 60% completion pct / 8.1 YPA / 7 TD 5 INT in 229 Att
Mac 2022 73% completion pct / 11.4 YPA / 1 TD 2 INT in 45 Att
Zappe 2022 65% completion pct / 9.9 YPA / 2 TD 0 INT in 17 Att
It's bizarre to me how Mac has gotten much worse in the former category and much better in the latter. I thought the rap on him was post-snap processing (the stats seem to suggest otherwise).
Obviously, Zappe supplanting Mac might never come to fruition (and even if it does, we should expect the league's defensive coordinators to adjust to him just as they did with Mac). I still think it merits further discussion.
If Bill were to start Bailey over Mac, it would at the very least make his daughter-in-law's girls' trip planning a lot more awkward going forward. "Sorry I didn't get back to you about hanging with us in Cleveland for the weekend, Sophie. My phone keeps acting up for some strange reason."
What would you need to see in order to start Zappe over a fully-recovered Mac?
We know that the Patriots have run a dumbed-down offense for Bailey, but multiple posts in the Lions game thread referenced how much better Zappe moved around in the pocket than Mac (particularly with stepping up in the pocket), thereby buying his receivers a precious extra second or two. We also know that the Lions D was terrible, and its secondary was significantly injury-depleted.
Nevertheless, I found it Belichick's quote about Zappe after the Lions game very interesting: "“He does a good job of seeing the game and can come off and identify and articulate what happened, and that’s usually right. What he saw is usually what I saw, or maybe when you look at the film, maybe there’s something that’s a little gray in there that his explanation is actually good. It was the way he saw it. He might not have done the right thing, but he saw the game.” It's faint praise, but still sounds like BB is saying that Bailey sees the game the same way as he does. And we know that Bill doesn't necessarily overvalue QB pedigree.
Here's what I need to see from Zappe against better quality competition going forward:
1. Continued limiting of QB miscues and negative plays (penalties, sacks, turnovers).
In 2 games, Zappe has had 6 miscues -- 1 delay of game penalty, 3 sacks taken, and 2 turnovers (1 INT and 1 fumble). 5 of those miscues came against the Packers and the 1 miscue in the Lions game was really on Agholor.
In 3 games, Mac has had 12 miscues -- 6 sacks taken (including an intentional grounding) and 6 turnovers (5 INT and 1 fumble). Last season, in 18 games, he had 59 miscues -- 9 delay of game penalties, 32 sacks taken (including an intentional grounding) and 18 turnovers (a few of which weren't his fault).
2. Continued high passing accuracy and productivity
In 2 games, Zappe has had a 75% completion percentage and 8.0 yards per attempt. Both stats are excellent. It is worth noting, however, that Zappe has had 13 passes completed of 10 yards or more versus 7 non-TD passes completed of 4 yards or less (less than a 2:1 ratio). This will need to improve going forward.
In 3 games, Mac has had a 66% completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt. Mac has had 29 passes completed of 10 yards or more versus 9 non-TD passes completed of 4 yards or less (more than a 3:1 ratio).
Last year in 18 games, Mac had a 67% completion percentage and 7.2 yards per attempt. He had 152 passes completed of 10 yards or more versus 61 non-TD passes passes completed of 4 yards or less (roughly a 2.5:1 ratio).
3. Efficient per drive offensive numbers
Thus far in 2022, the Zappe-led offense has produced 2.12 points per non-clock-killing drive (over 17 drives), which is unremarkable.
In comparison, the Mac-led offense has produced 1.72 points per drive (over 29 drives), which is the kind of performance that threatens a QB's ongoing job security. Last year, the Mac-led offense produced 2.66 points per drive (over 154 drives). Those numbers were goosed by 3 games (NYJ, CLE and JAX) where the Mac-led offense produced over 5 points per drive. Without those 3 games, the Mac-led offense produced 2.17 points per drive (over 138 drives).
4. Pocket presence
Pro Football Reference has an interesting statistical split around time to throw in the pocket that I'd never seen before.
Less Than 2.5 seconds
Mac 2021 73% completion pct / 6.7 YPA / 15 TD 8 INT in 292 Att
Mac 2022 60% completion pct / 5.3 YPA / 1 TD 3 INT in 52 Att
Zappe 2022 84% completion pct / 6.3 YPA / 0 TD 1 INT in 19 Att
2.5 seconds or More
Mac 2021 60% completion pct / 8.1 YPA / 7 TD 5 INT in 229 Att
Mac 2022 73% completion pct / 11.4 YPA / 1 TD 2 INT in 45 Att
Zappe 2022 65% completion pct / 9.9 YPA / 2 TD 0 INT in 17 Att
It's bizarre to me how Mac has gotten much worse in the former category and much better in the latter. I thought the rap on him was post-snap processing (the stats seem to suggest otherwise).
Obviously, Zappe supplanting Mac might never come to fruition (and even if it does, we should expect the league's defensive coordinators to adjust to him just as they did with Mac). I still think it merits further discussion.
If Bill were to start Bailey over Mac, it would at the very least make his daughter-in-law's girls' trip planning a lot more awkward going forward. "Sorry I didn't get back to you about hanging with us in Cleveland for the weekend, Sophie. My phone keeps acting up for some strange reason."
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A hell of a lot more from Zappe than he has shown. He's played in 2 games. In the first he looked like a deer in the headlights (Mac never did as a rookie) and the ultraconservative way the Pats played probably cost them a chance to win; in the second he played better but he did it against a team that could get no pass rush, that was playing from behind the whole game, and with a strong running game. In his combined 2 games, I think the Pats' offense with Zappe has zero red zone touchdowns.
What stands out to me about this quote is how much it mirrors Belichick talking about Brady's strengths:
That said, I think this is a nothingburger. Mac hasn't been good this year but playing lousy in three games doesn't mean a lot, nor does Zappe playing well in one. But it gives confidence Zappe can take over for Hoyer, sooner or later.
The local media is making a big deal about Belichick not committing to Mac going forward, but I think that's in line with his thoughts on how they manage injuries for guys who are cleared but not 100%. It's possible we see Mac as a backup for a week in here before he starts; they might prefer 100% Zappe to 70% Mac but prefer 70% Mac to 100% Garrett Gilbert.
It's interesting but I think the most plausible thing is that in this post Brady era BB thinks the best way to help the team before the media is to pump up the team and the players a little bit. Also putting a little extra praise on Zappe might motivate Jones a little more (or might motivate Jones and others to get the tightrope surgeries etc the teams want them to get the next time around).
I do think you could see an interesting decision point in two years if Zappe really is that good at seeing the field and if Zappe's arm gets a little stronger (or if Jones keeps doing his Young Testeverde act) but we're really far from that.
I'd need to see Zappe have wild success leading a half-long Pats comeback primarily by air. As in, if they are down 24-0 at halftime on Sunday, and Zappe has to throw 30 times in the 2nd half, completes 24, and has 3+ passing TDs en route to a 28-27 comeback win.
He's been a heartwarming story, but IMHO he's not anywhere near a legit NFL #1 QB. And Mac is, despite his struggles this season.
I don’t need to see anything. If Belichick thinks player A gives the Pats an incrementally better chance of winning, Player A is gonna start, and I’ll have zero standing to question it. I’m assuming he still thinks Player A is a healthy Jones, but if that assumption ultimately proves wrong, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Mac was never thrown into a fire drill in Lambeau as the 3rd stringer though. People keep using the Green Bay game as a negative point for Zappe, but I really think the opposite is true, even if he didn't flash plus NFL skills that day. A realistic expectation there for the 4th Rd rookie QB from a FBS school is vomiting on himself. While ultraconservative play may have ultimately cost them the game, it also brought them to OT @ Green Bay because Zappe managed it well enough.
I can buy not holding GB against him, but I can’t get so far as to construe it in his favor.
Mac is listed as questionable this week - certainly a chance to play or be the backup.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1581009415377125376
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1581009415377125376
This poise talk seems a bit overdone. Bailey basically panicked on the poor 3rd-down attempt to Henry late in the GB game, and his OL gave him a pocket about the size of a Ford Excursion on almost every pass play vs. the Lions. Oh, the Lions didn't have a functional secondary for much of the game either. He did fine, but tapping the brakes is in order.
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I posted an article earlier this week. The Pats have shifted the offense for Zappe back to what they run for Mac at the start of last season. By the end of the season that offense was way too predictable so they've started to incorporate more things into it--Jones was working through that.
If Jones had a game where the pocket was as clean as it was for Zappe last week he'd look amazing too.
Zappe is a fun story and I hope he does well, but the offense Zappe is running now won't keep up with Buffalo and KC.
It remains to be the seen if the offense Mac is running will keep up with Buffalo
MAC JONES career vs BUFFALO (3 games)
40 completions
73 attempts
55% completion percentage
5.4 YPA
2 TD
4 INT
4 sacks
44 offensive points
20 offensive drives
2.2 pts per drive
I'd encourage folks to re-read the earlier posts upthread. No one is anointing Zappe the starter. No one is saying that his performance against a porous Lions defense was sufficient to draw any definitive conclusions. We're just discussing what we STILL need to see from Zappe going forward. So, no, tapping the brakes aren't in order. No one's foot is on the accelerator.
Also, while I thought Mac acquitted himself well until the final 5 games of last season, the assertion that he never looked like a deer in headlights as a rookie is some serious revisionist history. Let's also not conveniently forget that he's always had full weeks of starter reps in practice and a personal tutor in McDaniels last season.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S10m6CMr9yc
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Second all of this.
No one, here at least, is anointing Zappe anything. But what seemed crazy a few weeks ago, that Bailey Zappe might be serviceable at the NFL level, is now very real. It's not just a fun story, it's also an opportunity to observe and develop what could potentially be a very valuable asset going forward if he shows any progress. Let's see what happens there, even if it's just a couple few more weeks.
I totally agree there's a 90% chance Zappe turns into a pumpkin or is simply just not as good as Mac who takes his job back when healthy. There might actually be something there though, and it's a lot more exciting than Brian Hoyer either way.
Does that really reflect poorly on Zappe? That they're giving him the same offense out of the gate that they gave #15 pick out of Alabama Mac Jones last year?
We don't have data points that Zappe is great yet... we also don't really have many that he sucks. But then again how much evidence do we have that Mac can be great? He's been given the reins of a more advanced offense but with very mixed results so far. I think this might be a demonstration of fans being lukewarm on Mac as much as hyped on Zappe.
You're proving my point. Last year's offense couldn't do much against Buffalo. They have gone back to that type of offense with Zappe. They were incorporating new things with Mac Jones and clearly he was working out the kinks. But he was starting to throw downfield more this year. BECAUSE LAST YEAR'S OFFENSE WOULD NOT BE GOOD ENOUGH. And again, that's what they are now doing with Zappe--a relatively safe offense. And I am ecstatic he's doing well in it.
I didn't say that. And you are responding to my post.
No one has said anything reflects poorly on Zappe. I want him to do well. But the Patriots installed a basic offense last year because they had a rookie QB. When he got hurt this year and they had to go to another rookie QB, they reverted to that basic offense because it's basic and a lot of the offense learned it last season.
When Mac is healthy he will play. Anyone that thinks these circumstances mirror BB benching Kosar or Bledsoe isn't paying attention.
Frankly I didn't even look to see what video you posted. This is just dumb. Do you think that play proves anything at all?
Absolutely, Kosar and Bledsoe had extensive NFL track records...
I don't see what point you're making pointing out that they reverted back to a basic offense. Of course they did, it was a 4th rounder's 1st career start, he had never even taken starter's reps in practice until last week. We know that offense wasn't enough last year with Mac... what if Zappe starts to show quicker progress in it than Mac did?? You say he's clearly working out the kinks this year but statistically he hasn't been good.
Does Mac make that throw?
I really don't want to sound crazy here, I do think it's Mac's job to lose, but I don't think it's a total lock given what's transpired so far this season.
I really think people have collective amnesia when it comes to Mac Jones season last year and should probably re watch his highlights
View: https://youtu.be/J7l1HNPtkWg
View: https://youtu.be/J7l1HNPtkWg
I actually needed that, I did have amnesia on some of his really nice throws.
A few things stood out to me:
- He tries to get the ball out really quickly, sometimes you can see a better throw available, but he's stuck on a read. Something we've seen really hinder him this year
- Not once did I see him step into the pocket like Zappe did last game. He doesn't seem to have the same pocket presence
- As a result of 1 and 2, there are a large number of throws off his back foot in that video
- There are a number of really shit throws in that video where the receiver bailed him out
I'm actually a pretty big Mac fan, and honestly I feel like this has made me re-evaluate how optimistic I was on him, and I watched the whole video. It's only been 7 quarters, but the drop off hasn't been as drastic as I was expecting.
He's also 28th in QBR, 29th in EPA, 29th in QB Rating, and has a 2TD/5INT ratio through 3 games this year. Three games yes, but it's the convergence of his poor play and Zappe's competency that make this even worth discussing.
He's also 28th in QBR, 29th in EPA, 29th in QB Rating, and has a 2TD/5INT ratio through 3 games this year. Three games yes, but it's the convergence of his poor play and Zappe's competency that make this even worth discussing.