What does 2023 look like?

JBJ_HOF

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You can see the dynamic strike zone difference in today's NY CLE game with Judge and Myles Straw for example:

 

themactavish

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https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/40891/prospectus-feature-the-universal-strike-zone/

This is an interesting piece, one that makes a number of distinctions with respect to the concept of the strike zone: rulebook strike zone, true strike zone, called strike zone, stringer strike zone, and universal strike zone. It provides some nice physiological data on things like tibial height, acromial (shoulder) height, waist height, and buttock height across different height percentiles, along with things like batting stance shoulder drop (e.g., Judge's shoulder drops 7.11 inches in his stance, while Altuve drops 8.58 inches). The author ultimately argues for a universal strike zone for all hitters.
 

dhappy42

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https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/40891/prospectus-feature-the-universal-strike-zone/

This is an interesting piece, one that makes a number of distinctions with respect to the concept of the strike zone: rulebook strike zone, true strike zone, called strike zone, stringer strike zone, and universal strike zone. It provides some nice physiological data on things like tibial height, acromial (shoulder) height, waist height, and buttock height across different height percentiles, along with things like batting stance shoulder drop (e.g., Judge's shoulder drops 7.11 inches in his stance, while Altuve drops 8.58 inches). The author ultimately argues for a universal strike zone for all hitters.
A universal strike zone makes sense. There’s no good reason a tall player’s strike zone should be bigger than a short player’s. Or more oddly, that a two players who are the same size can have different strike zones because one crouches more than the other.
 

themactavish

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A universal strike zone makes sense. There’s no good reason a tall player’s strike zone should be bigger than a short player’s. Or more oddly, that a two players who are the same size can have different strike zones because one crouches more than the other.
I should also think that from the standpoint of calling pitches, having the same "box" applied to all hitters (a zone so many specific inches in height and width) would be given to far greater consistency. For all I know, perhaps this is basically what umpires do now, with a kind of universal strike zone in their mind's eye, but different umps would presumably have a different zone in their head. The fewer things that an umpire needs to consider (where's this guy's tibia? where's the midpoint between his waist and top of his shoulders? how does his stance affect the measure here?), the better (akin to a baseball Ockham's razor: everything else being equal, the simpler strike zone is to be preferred).
 

Niastri

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A universal strike zone makes sense. There’s no good reason a tall player’s strike zone should be bigger than a short player’s. Or more oddly, that a two players who are the same size can have different strike zones because one crouches more than the other.
I remember reading/seeing somewhere that part of the reason Ricky Henderson was so good at drawing walks was a hidden talent.

He would subtly stand taller or lower in his stance on borderline strikes that he was taking to fool the umpire into calling balls. It might have been a strike on the way, but it was chin high by the time it arrived....

I have no idea how he got away with it, but I remember some color guy breaking it down with the Telestrator during an at bat when I was a kid.

Judge could probably go up or down by a foot if he tried it.
 

themactavish

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I remember reading/seeing somewhere that part of the reason Ricky Henderson was so good at drawing walks was a hidden talent.

He would subtly stand taller or lower in his stance on borderline strikes that he was taking to fool the umpire into calling balls. It might have been a strike on the way, but it was chin high by the time it arrived....

I have no idea how he got away with it, but I remember some color guy breaking it down with the Telestrator during an at bat when I was a kid.

Judge could probably go up or down by a foot if he tried it.
I remember as a kid thinking that given Henderson's usual batting stance, his strike zone seemed miniscule. His crouch was so pronounced at times that I wondered whether he could pretty much walk whenever he pleased.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I remember as a kid thinking that given Henderson's usual batting stance, his strike zone seemed miniscule. His crouch was so pronounced at times that I wondered whether he could pretty much walk whenever he pleased.
Howard Bryant talks about this in detail in his new Rickey bio (it’s excellent BTW, you should read it) and when Henderson first came up opposing managers and pitchers hated his stance. They all thought that he was cheating or gaming the system.

One pitcher said the only way you’d get a called strike on Rickey is by rolling the ball to the plate. But of course, it was intentional, Rickey knew that getting on base was the name of the game.
 

chawson

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If JD isn’t worth a $19 million qualifying offer, how much is he worth?
ZIPS had JDM projected as a .337 wOBA DH in 2023 before this season, where he basically nailed his .348 wOBA projection (he came in under at .343, but expected stats had him at .349).

So if he's roughly an age-35 designated hitter with reportedly good clubhouse and leadership qualities projected for a .330-335 wOBA, that basically describes Andrew McCutchen last offseason. McCutchen signed with Milwaukee for 1/$8.5M.

Maybe you bump that up to 1/$9 or $10 with higher luxury tax thresholds, and if you buy that JDM figured something out in September as he reported.
 

Ganthem

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If JD isn’t worth a $19 million qualifying offer, how much is he worth?
Last off season Nelson Cruz was coming off a season in which he put up a 123 WRC+ between two teams. I am not sure if he had any drop off in the second half, but he cashed in for a one year 15 million dollar contract. I can see Martinez signing something like that, though with the steep drop off in the second half I can see him settling for a ten million base salary with the chance of earning 20 million based on plate appearances etc. As for the Red Sox interest, I think that has to do with some other moves that happen this off season. Do they resign X? What do they do with their right field spot? Do they go with a Wong/Mcguire combo behind the plate or do they find a catcher with more offense? If the Sox feel they need more offense, I can see them roll the dice on JD, but I think there is a good chance he has played his last game here. I can see Refsnyder being the opening day DH. As players need a breather he can rotate out to pretty much every position and give those players a chance to DH.
 

dhappy42

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I assume JD is gone because some other team will pay JD more than the Sox think he’s worth. And the Sox have other low-cost options at DH, possibly a Refsnyder/Hosmer platoon.
 

nvalvo

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I think we should be aiming a bit higher in terms of DH production than Hosmer/Refsnyder, unless we’re spending all the money on Judge or something.
 

Ganthem

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Unless they want more flexiblity out of the DH spot. It won't hurt to bench Hosmer and Refsnyder plays multiple positions.
 

chrisfont9

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A universal strike zone makes sense. There’s no good reason a tall player’s strike zone should be bigger than a short player’s. Or more oddly, that a two players who are the same size can have different strike zones because one crouches more than the other.
In my ump classes we were always taught armpits to knees, based on a normal upright position, so crouching was just ignored. Pretty sure that's the MLB rule too. As to having it vary, a universal zone is pretty harmful to shorter players who have to swing a bat higher up relative to their normal swing area, which isn't easy to do. Should Altuve have to jump to swing at pitches at the top of Judge's strike zone? More likely the "universal zone" bends toward the shorter guys to eliminate this unfairness... which then means judge doesn't ever have to swing at anything resembling a high strike that's hard to catch up to. So no, a universal zone makes no sense.
 

themactavish

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In my ump classes we were always taught armpits to knees, based on a normal upright position, so crouching was just ignored. Pretty sure that's the MLB rule too. As to having it vary, a universal zone is pretty harmful to shorter players who have to swing a bat higher up relative to their normal swing area, which isn't easy to do. Should Altuve have to jump to swing at pitches at the top of Judge's strike zone? More likely the "universal zone" bends toward the shorter guys to eliminate this unfairness... which then means judge doesn't ever have to swing at anything resembling a high strike that's hard to catch up to. So no, a universal zone makes no sense.
I gather that this was the official MLB strike zone from 1969-1987, but then it changed from 1988-1995 to "the midpoint between the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, to the top of the knees." And then it changed again in 1996 to "the area over home plate from the midpoint between a batter's shoulders and the top of the uniform pants -- when the batter is in his stance and prepared to swing at a pitched ball -- and a point just below the kneecap." Of course, like many official rules, it's anybody's guess just how much real-life umpires follow the rules.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone
 

ehaz

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I think Jose Abreu would be a good JD replacement. Multiple reports that the White Sox are moving on from him. Can actually back-up Casas as well and you can then cut the LHH 1B Hosmer redundancy.

Abreu 2022: .304/.378/.446 (133 OPS+)
JDM 2022: .274/.341/.448 (117 OPS+)

Abreu last 3 seasons: .289/.366/.489 (135 OPS+)
JDM last 3 seasons: .269/.337/.469 (116 OPS+)
 

moondog80

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I think Jose Abreu would be a good JD replacement. Multiple reports that the White Sox are moving on from him. Can actually back-up Casas as well and you can then cut the LHH 1B Hosmer redundancy.

Abreu 2022: .304/.378/.446 (133 OPS+)
JDM 2022: .274/.341/.448 (117 OPS+)

Abreu last 3 seasons: .289/.366/.489 (135 OPS+)
JDM last 3 seasons: .269/.337/.469 (116 OPS+)

I can see this. The ChiSox have to find room for the defensively challenged Eloy Jiminez and Andrew Vaughn so I can see them moving on from Abreu despite his connection to the team, and the Red Sox a) want to increase their power, b) have a lot of money to spend, c) prefer short deals to long ones when they can get away with it, and d) have a hole at DH.

Edit: Though only 15 HR and a career low .446 SLG this year. Hmmm.
 

Puffy

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I can see this. The ChiSox have to find room for the defensively challenged Eloy Jiminez and Andrew Vaughn so I can see them moving on from Abreu despite his connection to the team, and the Red Sox a) want to increase their power, b) have a lot of money to spend, c) prefer short deals to long ones when they can get away with it, and d) have a hole at DH.

Edit: Though only 15 HR and a career low .446 SLG this year. Hmmm.
I could see this as well. Bloom places weight on flexibility and there will surely be some concern about backing up and/or complementing Casas where a RH hitter with 1B abilities would be a good roster addition, eventually removing Hosmer from the roster.

I could imagine adding 2 complementary opposite-handed corner outfield hitters, including someone who can cover 1B and become part of a DH rotation, instead of signing a strict DH. For instance, Nimmo/Conforto/Gallo/Pederson/Brantley + Mancini/Haniger/Drury/Duvall/Profar/Myers, many of whom have some 1B experience.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I can see this. The ChiSox have to find room for the defensively challenged Eloy Jiminez and Andrew Vaughn so I can see them moving on from Abreu despite his connection to the team, and the Red Sox a) want to increase their power, b) have a lot of money to spend, c) prefer short deals to long ones when they can get away with it, and d) have a hole at DH.

Edit: Though only 15 HR and a career low .446 SLG this year. Hmmm.
Yeah, the power decline worries me. I still like him as an option, but there's risk here. Being 36 years old at the start of next season, I don't know if we're going to see big numbers out of him.

What about a guy like Brandon Drury? He hasn't done anything in the playoffs, but he hit 28 homers this year and can play all over the field (1B, 2B, 3B, LF/RF, DH). Not my favorite option, but one who could bring some depth to the roster.
 

E5 Yaz

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What about a guy like Brandon Drury? He hasn't done anything in the playoffs, but he hit 28 homers this year and can play all over the field (1B, 2B, 3B, LF/RF, DH). Not my favorite option, but one who could bring some depth to the roster.
I've always been a Drury fan because of that versatility.
I think we need to consider that the trend is moving away from the DH who is only a DH. Teams are rotating multiple players through that spot now, or using it to give a break to those playing hurt. With teams carrying as many pitchers as position players these days, flexibility throughout those 13 offensive spots is increasingly important on rosters.
 

Ganthem

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I'd have to see how the rest of the roster shakes out over the off season, but as of today I have to say that I would be disappointed if the '23 season starts with both RFsnyder and Hosmer on the roster.
To be clear, I don't think both Refsnyder or Hosmer will be on the roster. I think Hosmer will either get traded or end up being designated. I think Refsnyder is going to get resigned and will be on the opening day roster barring injury. It is unlikely he will duplicate the offensive numbers he put up this year, but if he can ops 700 to 750 and play almost every position, then that is a useful player. At the same time I wonder if Bloom would be willing to do something unconventional with the DH spot. Instead of putting in the standard power hitter, put in Refsnyder. Players can rotate into and out of the DH spot, with Refsnyder either riding the bench or playing their position. Given Bloom's love of positional flexibility it makes a degree of sense. Of course it also is dependent on how the rest of the off season goes. If they are not able to add offense at least two positions then they might want a more traditional DH>
 

nvalvo

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How much do we believe in Refsnyder's 177 PA breakout?

xwOBA likes it: an expected .374 against his actual .381 suggests his performance was supported by his quality of contact. But it's a pretty small sample, and 40% of it was against LHP, against whom he posted a 1.000ish OPS. His career OPS is only .728 against lefties.

Another unconventional DH idea, if things break well: Jarren Duran. As we all know, he hasn't shown much offensively or defensively yet at the big league level, but I think there's a lot more cause for optimism on the offensive side. I'm particularly bullish on him as a potential beneficiary of the new pitch clock/pickoff/base size rules, as a very fast guy who is not currently a skilled base stealer.

I think an FA deal to a veteran is more likely, but just another for the list. I'd rather try that than give DH PA to Hosmer.
 

YTF

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To be clear, I don't think both Refsnyder or Hosmer will be on the roster. I think Hosmer will either get traded or end up being designated. I think Refsnyder is going to get resigned and will be on the opening day roster barring injury. It is unlikely he will duplicate the offensive numbers he put up this year, but if he can ops 700 to 750 and play almost every position, then that is a useful player. At the same time I wonder if Bloom would be willing to do something unconventional with the DH spot. Instead of putting in the standard power hitter, put in Refsnyder. Players can rotate into and out of the DH spot, with Refsnyder either riding the bench or playing their position. Given Bloom's love of positional flexibility it makes a degree of sense. Of course it also is dependent on how the rest of the off season goes. If they are not able to add offense at least two positions then they might want a more traditional DH>
I've been advocating for the DH to be used in similar manner for some time, though JDM on the roster made that very difficult in the previous years and impossible this past season. Just looking at the 8 defensive positions I really would like the Sox to find a solution to the corner OF issue and of course the pending vacancy at SS. With that done your starting 8 is solidified and you may be looking at a bench of RFsnyder, Arroyo, Dalbec/other option, half of the catcher platoon (assuming it's McGuire and Wongers) and either Franchy or another acquisition with some positional flexibility. That type of bench becomes deeper in a sense because you don't have one guy locked down as your everyday DH. Then factor in Kike's flexibility and you have all sort of possibilities for certain guys to get more ABs, allow for others to get some scheduled days off and barring injury it prevents the risk of over exposing certain players.
 

Rubber Match

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If LA Dodgers decide to non-tender Cody Bellinger, should Bloom take a one year flier on him? His outfield defense is elite but his offensive numbers have plummeted since his 2019 MVP season. I am not advocating for signing him long term but is he worth $18-20 million, one year, "show-me" deal?

Mainly a CF but he has logged time in RF and 1B. So, there is *some* positional flexibility there.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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If LA Dodgers decide to non-tender Cody Bellinger, should Bloom take a one year flier on him? His outfield defense is elite but his offensive numbers have plummeted since his 2019 MVP season. I am not advocating for signing him long term but is he worth $18-20 million, one year, "show-me" deal?

Mainly a CF but he has logged time in RF and 1B. So, there is *some* positional flexibility there.
$18-20 million for a guy that has put up OPS+ of 44 and 78 the last 2 years, almost certainly because of a shoulder injury that did not heal even after surgery? Hard pass.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If LA Dodgers decide to non-tender Cody Bellinger, should Bloom take a one year flier on him? His outfield defense is elite but his offensive numbers have plummeted since his 2019 MVP season. I am not advocating for signing him long term but is he worth $18-20 million, one year, "show-me" deal?

Mainly a CF but he has logged time in RF and 1B. So, there is *some* positional flexibility there.
I'm okay with the idea of signing Bellinger as a flyer. Paying him anywhere in the neighborhood of a QO doesn't seem like a flyer to me. $5M or less and we're talking.
 

simplicio

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Where are you getting elite defense from? The last two years he's had -1 and 0 DRS, and this year he had 50% more OAA than JBJ in CF with 350% more attempts.

And I'm not an expert on Dodger stadium, but I'm feeling like both center and right are tougher at Fenway.

Plus his statcast arm strength of 86.9 ranked him 41/55 qualified CF, and would be good for 36/44 in RF.
 
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moondog80

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Even if he was free, I don't think they can offer Bellinger a clear path to playing time the way some other teams will be able to. Pittsburgh and Oakland can give him a long leash with the hopes that he turns into a trade chip, he'll end somewhere like that.
 

chawson

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I'm not sure why people have appetites for gambling on Bellinger or Gallo if they also want to cut Franchy Cordero. The ex-Dodgers have a little more outfield defensive value and some of their early years are tantalizing, but they all seem to me like similar projects at this point.

2022
X: .219/.300/.397 | 10.2 BB%, 33.5 K% | 33.2% O-Swing/Chase Rate, 6.9 Barrels/PA% | .304 wOBA, .313 expected wOBA, 92 wRC+
Y: .160/.280/.357 | 13.7 BB%, 39.8 K% | 31.5% O-Swing/Chase Rate, 8.0 Barrels/PA% | .286 wOBA, .295 expected wOBA, 99 wRC+
Z: .210/.265/.389 | 06.9 BB%, 27.3 K% | 34.5% O-Swing/Chase Rate, 5.5 Barrels/PA% | .284 wOBA, .278 expected wOBA, 83 wRC+

2022 vs. RHP
X: .229/.304/.410 | 09.9 BB%, 32.3 K% | .310 wOBA, .313 expected wOBA, 96 wRC+
Y: .173/.297/.394 | 14.1 BB%, 37.6 K% | .306 wOBA, .318 expected wOBA, 99 wRC+
Z: .209/.272/.412 | 07.7 BB%, 27.2 K% | .296 wOBA, .283 expected wOBA, 92 wRC+

X: Cordero
Y: Gallo
Z: Bellinger
 

chrisfont9

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I'm not sure why people have appetites for gambling on Bellinger or Gallo if they also want to cut Franchy Cordero. The ex-Dodgers have a little more outfield defensive value and some of their early years are tantalizing, but they all seem to me like similar projects at this point.

2022
X: .219/.300/.397 | 10.2 BB%, 33.5 K% | 33.2% O-Swing/Chase Rate, 6.9 Barrels/PA% | .304 wOBA, .313 expected wOBA, 92 wRC+
Y: .160/.280/.357 | 13.7 BB%, 39.8 K% | 31.5% O-Swing/Chase Rate, 8.0 Barrels/PA% | .286 wOBA, .295 expected wOBA, 99 wRC+
Z: .210/.265/.389 | 06.9 BB%, 27.3 K% | 34.5% O-Swing/Chase Rate, 5.5 Barrels/PA% | .284 wOBA, .278 expected wOBA, 83 wRC+

2022 vs. RHP
X: .229/.304/.410 | 09.9 BB%, 32.3 K% | .310 wOBA, .313 expected wOBA, 96 wRC+
Y: .173/.297/.394 | 14.1 BB%, 37.6 K% | .306 wOBA, .318 expected wOBA, 99 wRC+
Z: .209/.272/.412 | 07.7 BB%, 27.2 K% | .296 wOBA, .283 expected wOBA, 92 wRC+

X: Cordero
Y: Gallo
Z: Bellinger
Agree, at least Franchy has some unknown to him. I personally wonder what he could do as a DH only without the stress that comes from playing defense, which he's objectively terrible at. I would give him one more chance to see what's there before just deleting an asset.
 

chawson

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Here's kind of an unconventional idea: Would it make any sense to ship Story to Seattle?

Mariners' GM Jerry Dipoto said in an interview yesterday that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base," referring to one of the big four FA shortstops (Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson and Correa).

Story's contract is 5/$115. BTV says that's underwater, and maybe so. But he's arguably the best defensive 2B in the league, and I think that contract will look quite reasonable compared to the deals any of those big four get. Plus, Seattle was in on Story last offseason, so it seems unlikely they've soured on him after a tough year. (Story reportedly chose Boston over Seattle because the latter asked him to move to third base.)

For that matter, I haven't soured much on Story either. I think he'll rebound nicely, and I love his defense at second. I'm not sure this is a good idea, but it would potentially free up money to reallocate elsewhere — including to Bogaerts, who no longer be blocked long-term at 2B. In the short-term, we'd seem to have a decent fallback option at second base in Arroyo, and then there's Yorke or maybe even Valdez in the pipeline.

I also don't know what I'd ask for from Seattle. I'm sure they'd love to swap Robbie Ray, but I'm not a big fan of him going forward. Maybe we could offer to take either their bad Evan White or Marco Gonzales contract off their hands and get something like Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore and one of their nasty bullpen arms?

BOS gets: Evan White (3/$18M) or Marco Gonzales (2/$19M), Dylan Moore (FA '25), Kyle Lewis (FA '26), Diego Castillo (FA '25)
SEA gets: Story (5/$115), Dalbec (FA '27)

Moore could play anywhere, and could be our mostly full-time 2B or RF. Lewis could slot into our OF/DH situation if he's healthy. Castillo could slide into the closer mix with Schreiber and Houck. (Of the other guys, White is just ballast, or Gonzales may be useful as a long reliever.)

More importantly, we could more ably afford extensions for Devers and/or Bogaerts, if that's how we want to do it.
 
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koufax32

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Here's kind of an unconventional idea: Would it make any sense to ship Story to Seattle?

Mariners' GM Jerry Dipoto said in an interview yesterday that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base," referring to one of the big four FA shortstops (Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson and Correa).

Story's contract is 5/$115. BTV says that's underwater, and maybe so. But he's arguably the best defensive 2B in the league, and I think that contract will look quite reasonable compared to the deals any of those big four get. Plus, Seattle was in on Story last offseason, so it seems unlikely they've soured on him after a tough year. (Story reportedly chose Boston over Seattle because the latter asked him to move to third base.)

For that matter, I haven't soured much on Story either. I think he'll rebound nicely, and I love his defense at second. I'm not sure this is a good idea, but it would potentially free up money to reallocate elsewhere — including to Bogaerts, who no longer be blocked long-term at 2B. In the short-term, we'd seem to have a decent fallback option at second base in Arroyo, and then there's Yorke or maybe even Valdez in the pipeline.

I also don't know what I'd ask for from Seattle. I'm sure they'd love to swap Robbie Ray, but I'm not a big fan of him going forward. Maybe we could offer to take either their bad Evan White or Marco Gonzales contract off their hands and get something like Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore and one of their nasty bullpen arms?

BOS gets: Evan White (3/$18M) or Marco Gonzales (2/$19M), Dylan Moore (FA '25), Kyle Lewis (FA '26), Diego Castillo (FA '25)
SEA gets: Story (5/$115), Dalbec (FA '27)

Moore could play anywhere, and could be our mostly full-time 2B or RF. Lewis could slot into our OF/DH situation if he's healthy. Castillo could slide into the closer mix with Schreiber and Houck. (Of the other guys, White is just ballast, or Gonzales may be useful as a long reliever.)

More importantly, we could more ably afford extensions for Devers and/or Bogaerts, if that's how we want to do it.
Are you thinking of freeing up 2B for a potential XB shift there or are you saying this would solely be about money?
 

chrisfont9

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Here's kind of an unconventional idea: Would it make any sense to ship Story to Seattle?

Mariners' GM Jerry Dipoto said in an interview yesterday that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base," referring to one of the big four FA shortstops (Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson and Correa).

Story's contract is 5/$115. BTV says that's underwater, and maybe so. But I think it'll look quite reasonable compared to the deals any of those big four get. Plus, Seattle was in on Story last offseason, so it seems unlikely they've soured on him after a tough year. (Story reportedly chose Boston over Seattle because the latter asked him to move to third base.)

For that matter, I haven't soured much on Story either. I think he'll rebound nicely, and I love his defense at second. I'm not sure this is a good idea, but it would potentially free up money to reallocate elsewhere — including to Bogaerts, who no longer be blocked at 2B. In the short-term, we'd seem to have a decent fallback option at second base in Arroyo, and then there's Yorke or maybe even Valdez in the pipeline.

I also don't know what I'd ask for from Seattle. I'm sure they'd love to swap Robbie Ray, but I'm not a big fan of him going forward. Maybe we could offer to take either their bad Evan White or Marco Gonzales contract off their hands and get something like Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore and one of their nasty bullpen arms?

BOS gets: Evan White (3/$18M) or Marco Gonzales (2/$19M), Dylan Moore (FA '25), Kyle Lewis (FA '26), Diego Castillo (FA '25)
SEA gets: Story (5/$115), Dalbec (FA '27)

Moore could play anywhere, and could be our mostly full-time 2B or RF. Lewis could slot into our OF/DH situation if he's healthy. Castillo could slide into the closer mix with Schreiber and Houck. (Of the other guys, White is just ballast, or Gonzales may be useful as a long reliever.)

More importantly, we could more ably afford extensions for Devers and/or Bogaerts, if that's how we want to do it.
This would amount to trading salary for lottery tickets, which isn't a terrible idea if we have some sense that one of them will pay off. I loved Lewis that first year, but unless he can bounce back, the rest of those names don't impress me much. If the flipside is signing other pieces with Story's money, though, I wouldn't be too bothered by a trade.
 

chawson

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Are you thinking of freeing up 2B for a potential XB shift there or are you saying this would solely be about money?
I see it freeing up 2B for a potential XB shift there in a couple years maybe. If I'm Bloom, I'm less squeamish about paying up for Bogaerts if I have one of 2B/3B open when Mayer arrives.
 

chrisfont9

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I don't think they consider this unless they first re-sign Bogaerts, or alternatively sign Correa. Story is 2B regardless, so trading him would mean opening a second hole up the middle, all in the name of recouping money they may end up being unable to spend. This would blow up the narrative the team has put out there about shifting into GFIN mode, so I suspect they would not go there.

I see it freeing up 2B for a potential XB shift there in a couple years maybe. If I'm Bloom, I'm less squeamish about paying up for Bogaerts if I have one of 2B/3B open when Mayer arrives.
Or Yorke or Romero or a miraculously improved Downs. But yeah, it would be acceptable to a longer-term strategy of competing in '24 and beyond.
 

chawson

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I don't think they consider this unless they first re-sign Bogaerts, or alternatively sign Correa. Story is 2B regardless, so trading him would mean opening a second hole up the middle, all in the name of recouping money they may end up being unable to spend. This would blow up the narrative the team has put out there about shifting into GFIN mode, so I suspect they would not go there.


Or Yorke or Romero or a miraculously improved Downs. But yeah, it would be acceptable to a longer-term strategy of competing in '24 and beyond.
Right, it’s a move that would work in tandem with a Bogaerts deal, which also seems likely to help Devers sign. Say Bloom signs Xander for 7/$175 and extends Devers for 10/$275 — deals that I'd both welcome and be pretty nervous about.

What if there's a way to trade Story and get back Jarred Kelenic?

Bloom trades Story and Dalbec (a Seattle native) for something like Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, and a relief arm (likely Diego Castillo, the most expensive and closest to FA).

Before any other moves — and there would be other moves — our team looks like this:

Kiké - CF
Devers - 3B
Bogaerts - SS
Casas - 1B
Refsnyder/Hosmer - DH
Verdugo - LF
Arroyo - 2B
Kelenic - RF
McGuire - C

Bench: Moore, Refsnyder/Hosmer, Wong, Cordero
SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Gonzales, Crawford, Paxton*
RP: Houck, Schreiber, D. Castillo, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, Winckowski, Kelly

The bust risk on Kelenic is clearly not zero and he's struggled the last two years, but I think he'd be an interesting gamble and we'd have him until 2029(?). He's got a great arm and could handle right field, and Seattle's outfield wouldn't miss him with Rodriguez, Trammell, Winker, Haggerty, Lewis and Marlowe (and the possibility of re-upping with Haniger after a lost year).

In other words, we've got $121 million to spend this offseason. In the above scenario, we've re-signed Bogaerts and extended Devers. We've also acquired a late-inning reliever, a back-end rotation guy, a utility man and a guy who could be our long-term CF/RF. And we've still got $92 million or so under the cap.

Compare that with keeping Story, re-signing Bogaerts (or one of the top four FA shortstops), extending Devers and signing Nimmo to 5/$100 and we've got about $40-50 under the cap.
 
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sean1562

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Why would a team trade for Story when they could have signed him to that exact deal last season? Before he had an injury plagued season, moved down the defensive spectrum, and posted the worst OPS of his career? Trammell, Winker, Haggerty, and Lewis were all bad last year. Kelenic is only 23 and controlled through 2028. That doesn't really seem to make any sense for the Mariners.
 

Rasputin

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I see it freeing up 2B for a potential XB shift there in a couple years maybe. If I'm Bloom, I'm less squeamish about paying up for Bogaerts if I have one of 2B/3B open when Mayer arrives.
Isn't this issue complete solved by moving Xander to third and Devers to DH? And aren't we all assuming those moves are going to happen at some point anyway?
 

chrisfont9

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Right, it’s a move that would work in tandem with a Bogaerts deal, which also seems likely to help Devers sign. Say Bloom signs Xander for 7/$175 and extends Devers for 10/$275 — deals that I'd both welcome and be pretty nervous about.

What if there's a way to trade Story and get back Jarred Kelenic?

Bloom trades Story and Dalbec (a Seattle native) for something like Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, and a relief arm (likely Diego Castillo, the most expensive and closest to FA).

Before any other moves — and there would be other moves — our team looks like this:

Kiké - CF
Devers - 3B
Bogaerts - SS
Casas - 1B
Refsnyder/Hosmer - DH
Verdugo - LF
Arroyo - 2B
Kelenic - RF
McGuire - C

Bench: Moore, Refsnyder/Hosmer, Wong, Cordero
SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Gonzales, Crawford, Paxton*
RP: Houck, Schreiber, D. Castillo, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, Winckowski, Kelly

The bust risk on Kelenic is clearly not zero and he's struggled the last two years, but I think he'd be an interesting gamble and we'd have him until 2029(?). He's got a great arm and could handle right field, and Seattle's outfield wouldn't miss him with Rodriguez, Trammell, Winker, Haggerty, Lewis and Marlowe (and the possibility of re-upping with Haniger after a lost year).

In other words, we've got $121 million to spend this offseason. In the above scenario, we've re-signed Bogaerts and extended Devers. We've also acquired a late-inning reliever, a back-end rotation guy, a utility man and a guy who could be our long-term CF/RF. And we've still got $92 million or so under the cap.

Compare that with keeping Story, re-signing Bogaerts (or one of the top four FA shortstops), extending Devers and signing Nimmo to 5/$100 and we've got about $40-50 under the cap.
Kelenic makes this a bit more intriguing. I wonder if Seattle is ready to take that risk, given that he's only hitting his age-23 season and he had been pretty heavily sold to the fanbase as their next big star. OTOH it's been two poor seasons and Story would be a big name coming back, so on the optics level it's not out of the question. Plus the fans got their young star already.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Bloom trades Story and Dalbec (a Seattle native) for something like Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, and a relief arm (likely Diego Castillo, the most expensive and closest to FA).
BTV nixes this trade. They have Story's contract $37.4M underwater and Dalbec a virtual non-entity (+0.5). They've got a couple of those Mariners contracts in negative value -- White at -20 and Gonzales at -14.5. But the other three come in at +5.6, + 6.3 and +8.3.
So Story straight up (or with Dalbec) for White and Gonzales would work. But who wants that?
 

nvalvo

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BTV nixes this trade. They have Story's contract $37.4M underwater and Dalbec a virtual non-entity (+0.5). They've got a couple of those Mariners contracts in negative value -- White at -20 and Gonzales at -14.5. But the other three come in at +5.6, + 6.3 and +8.3.
So Story straight up (or with Dalbec) for White and Gonzales would work. But who wants that?
I have no real opinion on the trade, but that's extremely pessimistic on Story. I do not think it would be harder to trade Story than to trade Chris Sale (-$27.4), as their lists suggest.

Javy Baez and Trevor Story both signed 6/$140m deals. Baez had a 93 OPS+ last season and 2.6 bWAR in 144 games — as a SS. Story had a 102 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR in only 94 games — as a 2B, but the positional difference should be factored into WAR. Both are entering their age-30 season. But Story is valued at -$37.4 and Baez at -$31.5? It feels a bit weird.
 

chawson

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Why would a team trade for Story when they could have signed him to that exact deal last season? Before he had an injury plagued season, moved down the defensive spectrum, and posted the worst OPS of his career? Trammell, Winker, Haggerty, and Lewis were all bad last year. Kelenic is only 23 and controlled through 2028. That doesn't really seem to make any sense for the Mariners.
The Mariners “spent a good portion of time before and after the offseason lockout desperately courting the hard-hitting infielder to join the organization,” the Seattle Times reported in May. They wanted him to play third base, according to multiple reports here and here. He chose Boston in part because he didn’t want to.

Which is why I agree with nvalvo that this…

BTV nixes this trade. They have Story's contract $37.4M underwater and Dalbec a virtual non-entity (+0.5). They've got a couple of those Mariners contracts in negative value -- White at -20 and Gonzales at -14.5. But the other three come in at +5.6, + 6.3 and +8.3.
So Story straight up (or with Dalbec) for White and Gonzales would work. But who wants that?
…considerably misses the mark on Story, especially from the Mariners’ point of view. They were already in on him, and now they’ve announced to the world the very specific intention to acquire and convert a shortstop to play second base. I don’t think any of Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson or Correa do that, nor do they sign for less than $150 million.

I figure the Tigers would listen, but Baez was pretty bad, has a limited NTC and an opt out after 2023. The Rangers might listen but Story at 5/$115 is preferable to Semien at 6/$150.
 
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GB5

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I am not sure how much I believe in this stuff, but if the Sox unload Story this off-season, there will be a lot of ink spilled about free agents not wanting to come here because the Sox weren’t loyal in this instance..or something like that.

I don’t think it means anything as I think the vast majority of these guys are run by their agents who would sell them to Japan if it meant an extra dollar.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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The Mariners “spent a good portion of time before and after the offseason lockout desperately courting the hard-hitting infielder to join the organization,” the Seattle Times reported in May. They wanted him to play third base, according to multiple reports here and here. He chose Boston in part because he didn’t want to.

Which is why I agree with nvalvo that this…



…considerably misses the mark on Story, especially from the Mariners’ point of view. They were already in on him, and now they’ve announced to the world the very specific intention to acquire and convert a shortstop to play second base. I don’t think any of Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson or Correa do that, nor do they sign for less than $150 million.

I figure the Tigers would listen, but Baez has a limited one and an opt out after 2023. Story at 5/$115 is preferable to Semien at 6/$150.
Sure. BTV isn't the end-all-be-all, just another data point. For Story's CONTRACT (not Story himself) to be valued at -37.4 over five years, we're talking about -7.5 per year, which means they're projecting him to be worth about 1 WAR less per year than the value of his contract suggests he should be producing, on average. The raw number certainly doesn't tell a complete story (no pun intended), does it? For instance, Story's -37.4 looks rough, but you also get a top defensive 2B and the possibility of a bounce-back with the bat. On the other hand, Evan White's -20 looks like a sunk cost with no utility.
The reality of free agent contracts is that most of them look like negative value from the get-go. BTV even has Mookie's contract at -44 right now.
As for the proposed deal... could end up being as good for the Sox as Varitek and DLowe for Slocumb. I'm all for that!
 

chawson

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I am not sure how much I believe in this stuff, but if the Sox unload Story this off-season, there will be a lot of ink spilled about free agents not wanting to come here because the Sox weren’t loyal in this instance..or something like that.

I don’t think it means anything as I think the vast majority of these guys are run by their agents who would sell them to Japan if it meant an extra dollar.
Yeah, fair point. But would it be worse than the ink spilled about letting Bogaerts walk? A scenario that makes it likelier Devers walks? A story in The Athletic this week made it sound like the two were even I closer than I thought:

McCaffrey: Devers and Bogaerts have grown so close in the seven years they’ve played alongside each other, they have an unspoken understanding of what the other needs.

“Each one suffers the other one,” manager Alex Cora said. “Like, they have joy when they’re going well, but when they go bad, they (both) suffer. It’s amazing. It’s like suffering by two.”
To be clear, I like Story and I’m not necessarily advocating this trade, but it’s interesting and I could talk myself into it with the right package. Dipoto is a wild man and his team is built to make a run after the Castillo deal, and they’ve got some interesting, possible expendable pieces.
 
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soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1583574331774287872

It appears Xander Bogaerts isn’t the only pending free agent who the Red Sox have recently discussed a reunion with.


Veteran lefty Rich Hill recently met with front office officials and the sides both expressed a mutual interest in reuniting for 2023, Hill said on WEEI earlier this week (via The Bradfo Sho). Hill will hit free agency earlier next month after going 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 26 starts.


“We’ve talked and discussed. I had lunch with a few of the guys in the front office,” Hill said. “Understanding that there is obviously a mutual interest there. We’re waiting to see. I know there are other players they are looking to retain. Could be the shortstop. And I understand that.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/10/red-sox-rich-hill-met-for-lunch-expressed-mutual-interest-in-free-agent-reunion.html