Always enjoy a good Pedro comp...
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/yoshinobu-yamamoto-next-japanese-sensation-coming-to-mlb
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
View: https://twitter.com/Alden_Gonzalez/status/1702063201897345330
signing a FA SP to a huge $$$ is like playing Russian roulette at this point
signing a FA SP to a huge $$$ is like playing Russian roulette at this point
Very interesting case...
He's someone that I really want on the team, but you just know someone out there is going to offer him something incredibly stupid in terms of length of the contract.
The largest outlay I can think of last year was 5 and $185m for deGrom (which worked out horribly, but he's always injured, so I think most people assumed that would work out horribly). Rodon got 6/$162m (also always injured, and predictably injured again).
Nola's durability is someone that I'd bet on. Sure, he's going to need TJS at some point like they all seem to, but with his build and delivery, I think of him as much more likely to lose "1 year" out of a contract than multiple years. If he'd accept something between those two (call it 5/$165m), I'd really like that deal.
Especially when (lets assume those that really like Bloom's farm system are correct) you're getting cheap production out of "SP2" (Bello); SP4 and SP5 (Houck, Crawford, Murhpy, reclamation project X), C (Wong), 1b (Casas), Non Story MI (Mayer, Yorke, whatever), CF and probably RF.
Bello, Yamamoto, Nola is the type of top 3 that I can see sacrificing the reliability of SP4 and penciling in two of Crawford, Houck, Murphy, reclamation project X and still having a reasonable expectation of WS contention.
He's someone that I really want on the team, but you just know someone out there is going to offer him something incredibly stupid in terms of length of the contract.
The largest outlay I can think of last year was 5 and $185m for deGrom (which worked out horribly, but he's always injured, so I think most people assumed that would work out horribly). Rodon got 6/$162m (also always injured, and predictably injured again).
Nola's durability is someone that I'd bet on. Sure, he's going to need TJS at some point like they all seem to, but with his build and delivery, I think of him as much more likely to lose "1 year" out of a contract than multiple years. If he'd accept something between those two (call it 5/$165m), I'd really like that deal.
Especially when (lets assume those that really like Bloom's farm system are correct) you're getting cheap production out of "SP2" (Bello); SP4 and SP5 (Houck, Crawford, Murhpy, reclamation project X), C (Wong), 1b (Casas), Non Story MI (Mayer, Yorke, whatever), CF and probably RF.
Bello, Yamamoto, Nola is the type of top 3 that I can see sacrificing the reliability of SP4 and penciling in two of Crawford, Houck, Murphy, reclamation project X and still having a reasonable expectation of WS contention.
Under the category of I don't know what to make of:
Top 30 pitchers in expected ERA
Crawford - 15th
Sale - 27th
Paxton - 30th
Top 30 pitchers in expected ERA
Crawford - 15th
Sale - 27th
Paxton - 30th
If Gammons says he's interested... he's probably not interested. I love Peter Gammons but his image on social media should be a close up on a salt grain.
To pivot another way....
im hoping for something like this for one of the two spots needed to fill in the rotation. The other by straight FA. IF depth shouldn’t miss Yorke at all… Duran is also expendable with Rafaela and Abreu looking for real. I’d miss Duran burning around 1Bturning a slap single into a double but there’s depth finally… use it.
There are alternative approaches where we could conceivably take on Yelich's contract. I have no idea how Yelich is defensively, but the contract and him being another LHH make him less than an ideal target.
Sigh.. yeah. I love watching Duran but you have to do this if you're the Sox. I don't follow Burnes enough to understand the little ERA bump this year -- how does a guy see his FIP go up almost a run to 3.90 while still having a WHIP barely over 1? -- but overall it seems like his stats say he's the same guy he has been. only 28. Sign me up.
Burnes is going to require a Rodon-like extension, though, right?
The Ohtani stuff is weird. He’s interested in Boston because a company he has a relationship with has its HQ here?
The Ohtani stuff is weird. He’s interested in Boston because a company he has a relationship with has its HQ here?
I suspect Ohtani's agent is "interested" in the Sox because we're a big money, big market team and the more suitors the more insane his deal is going to be... oh and something something New Balance.
That’s sadly my cynical thought as well: all upside to talk this way. I mean he’d probably come here if the money is right but there are only 5-10 potential landing spots and the RS are one. Maybe keeping us as stalking horse gets another $50m from the Mets or Padres or Dodgers or….
Yeah, the Ohtani rumours are really exciting, but I just don't see it happening, and not because of Yoshida. Like others, I've watched a ton of Ohtani, and every time I see him pitch in anything but nice temperatures he looks miserable. I can't imagine him being excited by the prospect of April in Boston. I think he stays out west, with the Dodgers making the most sense.
The uniqueness of Ohtani scares me. Love to have him, but this is uncharted FA waters. The injury might knock a bit off the asking price, but whoever signs him will be paying a premium for a two way player. We all know that huge deals usually concede the later years for what are considered the prime years on the front end. How much is a team willing to concede for a two way player who in all likelihood won't be a two way player for the duration of the contract?
There is zero chance that a ‘quanty’ risk averse organization like the Sox sign him.
Ive been working through this thought experiment: would you sign an awesome pitcher for 25m and an awesome hitter for 25m (perhaps each representing break even to some slight excess value), BUT if the hitter get hurt then the pitcher can’t pitch and if the pitcher gets hurt it’s 50/50 the hitter can play.
Not this ownership, and I wouldn’t either I don’t think.
Yeah. I don't think they'll be the highest bidder. And as long as they spend elsewhere, I'm OK with that.
Depends on whether they're looking to change public perception & get more people in the park or looking at it from a purely analytic POV.
The Bloom firing makes it possible that has become more of a priority, but I still think it'll be one of those things where they are on the outer list, but not the inner list in the end.
Yeah, I'm not sure if he'll last as a pitcher for the duration of the contract. But, if he were to suffer another injury (another elbow tear, possible shoulder injury) that drastically impacted his ability to pitch, I wouldn't be surprised if he could play an above average RF. While at that point he might not be able to pitch, I'd imagine his arm would still be strong in the outfield, and he has good speed. I would think that would be taken into consideration with his contract.
Why is there so much discussion in the 2024 starting pitching thread about the one guy who is guaranteed not to throw a single pitch in 2024?
This is exactly the kind of deal I was hoping we'd be able to swing around the trade deadline. On the one hand, Milwaukee has some history of trading players that have huge roles on their team during a season they're in contention for a division title (Hader), but on the other, that was Stearns.
I admittedly don't think I'd do this for one year of control of Burnes, so it has more to do with "term" than the players in question. Make that Duran and Yorke for Cease (29.30 to 30.70) and I'd be totally on board.
Though I do like the idea of focusing on "other names" we'd land. I think we pretty much all want them to land Yamamoto and agree that is probably ideal. But I'm sure a dozen other teams have the same mindset, so what are the plans if we assume Yamamoto ends up elsewhere and we're still looking at filling 3 spots in the rotation - of which I assume one goes to Bello, and I think the 5th spot can be used for whichever of Houck / Crawford shows the most to earn it while the other goes to the bullpen.
What? You don't think Ohtani will come to Boston to hang out with his BFF 80 year old Jim Davis?
The only problem with this deal is Milwaukee has Turang and Monasterio at 2B and an OF of Yelich, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick, with Joey Weimer as their 4th OF. 2B and OF are two spots they don't really need help.
I think a Burnes deal would need to revolve around cheap pitching going to MIL. Maybe a 3 team deal with Duran/Yorke going to the 3rd team and that team sending MIL cheap pitching could work.
I suspect the "relationship" with Jim Davis/New Balance means that if he signs with Boston, New Balance would significantly up his endorsement deal. It's a local company.
It's a nice try but I still think the fact that he hangs out in Seattle in the offseason says more about his preferences. He would be perfect for the Ms, who are well equipped to just park him at DH for a year or more until he can safely pitch again. If the Sox sign him, it's hard to see them contending next year, unless they deal a bunch of players to fix the pitching.
Also, unlike plenty of other teams, the Ms have so many good pitchers and good pitching prospects that having to go with a 6 man rotation to fit Ohatni's schedule isn't a hindrance to them like it is a horrendous organization, like the Angles. It's another reason LAD make so much sense.
It's also a reason why Boston might not make sense. The Sox have had such a dearth of MLB quality starting pitching either in their rotation / slotted for their rotation / in the upper minors that they'd have to pay Ohtani AND still somehow fill 3 of the other "6" slots in the rotation as well.
He's absolutely the best player in the game, and for my two cents worth possibly the best player in baseball history, but there are plenty of other places that the Red Sox need to allocate resources to fix that I really can't see the Sox being a major player for Ohtani.
I'd say ever - or at least the most talented if someone doesn't want to say the longevity is there to say best. But Ohtani has had to face the best players in the world whereas Ruth was facing the best white players in the game (Negro leagues), so I'd give Ohtani the edge.
Either way that was mostly interjected to say that while clearly I'd want Ohtani on the Red Sox (because of how great he is) there are likely other issues that are much more pressing on the team that need to be addressed first, and there is only so much money (and prospects) to address them. Most notably 3 slots in the rotation (assuming one goes to Bello and SP5 is used for continuing to break in whomever shows the most promise of Crawford and Houck while the other moves to the bullpen).
How much of a bump in production would Ohtani be over Casas and Abreu? As good as he is, is it worth 50m a year (I'm assuming that's what it's gonna take over 8 years or so) if he's not pitching too over the course of the contract?
Bats aren't the problem. Pitching is, IMO that money is better allocated towards getting good, reliable SP. That 50m could be 2 good starters that actually pitch deep into games and the bullpen isn't running on fumes.
Bats aren't the problem. Pitching is, IMO that money is better allocated towards getting good, reliable SP. That 50m could be 2 good starters that actually pitch deep into games and the bullpen isn't running on fumes.
The Ruth comparisons aren't great for another reason: Ruth was never simultaneously a great hitter and pitcher. Ruth was great pitching in 1916 and '17 (8.8 and 6.5 bWAR, respectively), solid in '15 and '18, league average (102 ERA+) in 1919 with reduced innings, and then apart from a couple appearances was done as a pitcher. In those four good years he compiled roughly 10 bWAR as a hitter total (e.g., 20 HRs total in that four year span). He broke out as the league's best hitter in 1919, 9.1 bWAR, which adding in 0.8 pitching bWAR that's 9.9 total. That's his best combined pitching + hitting season. The rest, as they say, is history, but all as a position player.
Ohtani could be described as having a career unlike any other player in modern MLB in that he is putting up 4+ WAR seasons on both sides. His one great pitching year (2022) coincided with a drop in offensive WAR (3.5). This year he was on pace for something truly truly without precedent, but will now have to settle for a 10 bWAR season where he is easily a top ten hitter (6.0 bWAR) and something just below that as a pitcher. (4.0 bWAR). Had he stayed at his present pace, he was headed for something like 11.5 bWAR total, which would be in the top 65 seasons of all time and equivalent to Pedro or Ripken in their best years, a tick below best-ever Barry Bonds.
It's not hard to squint and see Ohtani producing the single greatest season of any player since WWI, as well as the coolest performance of any era. But he hasn't done it yet and the injuries may prevent him from ever doing so.
I'm getting vibes of the Adrian Gonzalez / Carl Crawford offseason here. the Yoshinobu / Ohtani combo would be very exciting but not a ton of logical sense.
High risk high reward.
I suspect Ohtani’s days as a two way player are numbered and his contract will reflect that, but he’s still likely to get $400M/10 years-12 years.
I suspect Ohtani’s days as a two way player are numbered and his contract will reflect that, but he’s still likely to get $400M/10 years-12 years.
Ohtani doesn't make a lot of sense to me for a few reasons.
- The number one need this offseason is durable, high-quality starting pitching. Ohtani isn't going to help fill that need this year, and he's going to eat a significant chunk of the budget if they sign him.
- We're also defensively challenged. Yoshida should probably be a DH, and Devers is right behind him if he can't make serious improvements this offseason. Signing a full-time DH for a year doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now.
- Personally - and maybe this is unwarranted - I think Ohtani is going to be a massive, massive albatross in a few years. He's a transcendent player right now with top-10 talent as a hitter and top-20 talent as a pitcher. He's going to be paid as one of the most unique talents this game has ever seen. But he's already had issues staying on the field as a full-time two-way player. I think that either 1. his pitching output is going to be severely reduced in order to keep him on the field as a hitter, or 2. he's going to break down in a few years if he remains a full-time starting pitcher. The thing is, we really don't know. There's no precedent for this. Maybe I'm being too risk-averse, but I don't necessarily want the Red Sox to pay $400 million to find out how sustainable being a full-time two-way player is. Someone will, though.
The risk associated with Ohtani the offensive player doesn't seem high. The pitcher side is where all the risk is. I'd guess his contract will never be untradeable.
Given his MLB experience so far, I fully expect him to negotiate a full no trade clause.
I think some of the back-and-forth over whether or not to sign an Ohtani seems based on what you think of the "budget." "Oh, that signing doesn't make sense because of the budget. We need to allocate money to starting pitching, etc."
As a fan, I could not care less about the self-imposed budget FSG sets. Why would I care how much they overpay someone, if they are willing to throw good money after that bad money. I get the effect on the draft and international signings, but those are lottery tickets with associated odds of hitting.
If they want great players, they have to pay. If they don't want to pay, they end up needing to pray. Hoping that cheap prospects pan out is not a strategy.
As a fan, I could not care less about the self-imposed budget FSG sets. Why would I care how much they overpay someone, if they are willing to throw good money after that bad money. I get the effect on the draft and international signings, but those are lottery tickets with associated odds of hitting.
If they want great players, they have to pay. If they don't want to pay, they end up needing to pray. Hoping that cheap prospects pan out is not a strategy.
Three of the four best teams in baseball were built largely out of prospects. Maybe four of five if you squeeze in Houston. Improving by spending tons of money on free agents and then flopping hard is an annual tradition (hi Mets and Padres). If your point is that's how you get stars, fine, but if your point is that's how you win, I completely disagree.
I am referring to superstars. They have value to a franchise beyond on the field.
Ohtani to me is an easy sign and should not disrupt the rest of your plan.
I mean, you don't have to like it, but it definitely is. That's how every team currently in a playoff position except Texas is built.
You can certainly go the bottom out route like Houston and Baltimore and load up on top 5 draft picks. That is a plan that appears to work. I'm unsure the market would take kindly to that approach.
Well you're right about that, and in fact you've hit on what's really happening here. The market has essentially talked (screamed?) the team out of a proven strategy for building a truly high-ceiling team.