2020 NBA Draft discussion

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
4,201
around the way
Having a mix of personality types and experiences isn't mandatory, but it's a nice thing to have. That doesn't mean that it comes at the expense of developing young guys. The roster can go out to 17. There's room for both.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,373
Santa Monica
I get that @benhogan and totally agree. My question (probably badly stated) is why only focus on Vets and "ring chasers" to round out the team? Why not continue to bring in young players through the draft (hopefully hitting on 1 role player every year).

Keeps the team as young and cheap as possible with the only players you really "let age" is Tatum and Brown. As opposed to Vets who while "only cot the MLE" technically cost much more then that when Tax is factored in.

Are vets (available with MLE) really that much of an upgrade of a young player?
100% with you, I don't see many MLE vets that are worth more floor time than Grant/Romeo/TL. I'm totally on board with drafting/developing even if it costs the team a couple of regular-season wins.

Watching Miami play 3 rookies in their rotation (2 undrafted) and Toronto developing late 1sts/UFA has me wanting Brad/Danny to create a Celtic Culture around the Jays
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,375
As we think about "the window", I think one of the key "windows" is also the remaining 2 years on Smart's deal. So, in some regards, the pressure is actually on quite a bit for the next two years (and also next year if you factor in Hayward).
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,433
As we think about "the window", I think one of the key "windows" is also the remaining 2 years on Smart's deal. So, in some regards, the pressure is actually on quite a bit for the next two years (and also next year if you factor in Hayward).
Aren’t we in pretty good shape with Smart? Hayward will be off the books after this year and Kemba will be an expiring deal when Smart’s next deal kicks in. I am expecting Danny to make Jay’s and Marcus the core for the next 5-6 years.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
100% with you, I don't see many MLE vets that are worth more floor time than Grant/Romeo/TL. I'm totally on board with drafting/developing even if it costs the team a couple of regular-season wins.
I'm fine with them also moving on from any of them if something's out there. Of that group of three Granite's the keeper. He's the player that The Baconator (aka Big Baby) could have been if he'd committed himself to conditioning. I like Langford, and he has a ton of upside, but if they drafted Hampton I'm just as good with them going that way and letting Romeo go. Similarly with Timelord it's going to be his second deal before he's a rotation player (as opposed to his current usage as a situational big), and I'm hoping that Boston isn't the team that overpays him.

As we think about "the window", I think one of the key "windows" is also the remaining 2 years on Smart's deal. So, in some regards, the pressure is actually on quite a bit for the next two years (and also next year if you factor in Hayward).
Aren’t we in pretty good shape with Smart? Hayward will be off the books after this year and Kemba will be an expiring deal when Smart’s next deal kicks in. I am expecting Danny to make Jay’s and Marcus the core for the next 5-6 years.
I suspect that Boston sounds Marcus out on an extension this offseason, when they're allowed to. The economic uncertainties surrounding the game post-pandemic might make him more amenable to signing an extension here, which would be two years and approximately $34 million. Which would lock up that core for the next four years at a minimum.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,433
I suspect that Boston sounds Marcus out on an extension this offseason, when they're allowed to. The economic uncertainties surrounding the game post-pandemic might make him more amenable to signing an extension here, which would be two years and approximately $34 million. Which would lock up that core for the next four years at a minimum.
Agreed. I think a 2-3 year extension for Smart that takes him out to his age 29 or 30 season makes a lot of sense for the Celtics, if he's agreeable to it. Can't imagine he'd do much better than $17M / season in 2 years when he becomes a FA.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,373
Santa Monica
Similarly with Timelord it's going to be his second deal before he's a rotation player (as opposed to his current usage as a situational big), and I'm hoping that Boston isn't the team that overpays him.
On our list of things to worry about, TL eventually getting paid is pretty low, right? That would mean he played out of his mind in 2021 for the Celtics, sign me up for that!

He's way behind Allen (Nets), Robinson (Knicks) & others of that vintage. I'm not sure there are salary cap gymnastics being done to pay classic BIGs anymore, unless you GM for the Cavs.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
I've been wasting waaaaay too much time today watching game footage of McDaniels, and on watching it I'm not sure he makes it out of the teens. The skinny factor/problem is there. But he's plenty quick/athletic enough to play the perimeter full time (much easier to project in this regard than Pokusevski). He's a creative shotmaker, that's for sure, with a good handle for someone 6'10".

He finishes through contact at the college level. Meaning that he has good functional strength (like Tatum). He's also springy and that helps him finish strong. He's also not a bad passer in the drive & kick game. He really does look like a poor man's Durant.

My problem is the defense. I made this remark about him earlier, but post-Wiggins I'm skeptical of college defenders that let their length/athleticism do the work for them. Six years ago I loved Wiggins' D because when you watched the tape he was willing to take the tough covers and got results.

None of it translated to the NBA. When you went back and rewatched, you saw that he used his overwhelming physical advantages on guys he was covering, but that was doing all the work. He never imposed himself on people. Contrast that with Marcus, he was 6'3" in his bare feet with good length (6'9" wingspan if I recall). Athletic, but not dominant like Wiggins. But he always imposes himself on other players. Even Joel Embiid for stretches. When the athletic abilities of the competition caught up with Smart, he kept playing elite D. Wiggins, by contrast, just shrugged it off. When he coud no longer dominate physically he just went through the motions.

So in 2020 I contrast McDaniels's defense with Saddiq Bey's. Bey is athletic for college, but not an elite athlete. Quick feet, though, and stays in front of guys. Bey plays extremely heady defense. He doesn't garner a lot of steals, but he gets tons of deflections. Overplaying the passing lanes gets you highlights, but can also hang your teammates out to dry. You don't see him do that. So I have a ton of confidence that Bey will be a really good NBA defender, and potentially an elite 3&D forward.

McDaniels makes a lot of great looking plays, because he's 6'10" with a 7' wingspan, quick, fast, and springy. So you'll see some great looking blocked shots and steals. But overall I'm skeptical about how he performs defensively at the next level. I think a lot of it depends on where he ends up. If he ends up on a team with a strong defensive culture, like Milwaukee, Boston, or Miami, this is probably less of a concern. But if he ends up on the Knicks I think he becomes an empty numbers guy in the NBA.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,373
Santa Monica
I've been wasting waaaaay too much time today watching game footage of McDaniels, and on watching it I'm not sure he makes it out of the teens. The skinny factor/problem is there. But he's plenty quick/athletic enough to play the perimeter full time (much easier to project in this regard than Pokusevski). He's a creative shotmaker, that's for sure, with a good handle for someone 6'10".

He finishes through contact at the college level. Meaning that he has good functional strength (like Tatum). He's also springy and that helps him finish strong. He's also not a bad passer in the drive & kick game. He really does look like a poor man's Durant.

My problem is the defense. I made this remark about him earlier, but post-Wiggins I'm skeptical of college defenders that let their length/athleticism do the work for them. Six years ago I loved Wiggins' D because when you watched the tape he was willing to take the tough covers and got results.

None of it translated to the NBA. When you went back and rewatched, you saw that he used his overwhelming physical advantages on guys he was covering, but that was doing all the work. He never imposed himself on people. Contrast that with Marcus, he was 6'3" in his bare feet with good length (6'9" wingspan if I recall). Athletic, but not dominant like Wiggins. But he always imposes himself on other players. Even Joel Embiid for stretches. When the athletic abilities of the competition caught up with Smart, he kept playing elite D. Wiggins, by contrast, just shrugged it off. When he coud no longer dominate physically he just went through the motions.

So in 2020 I contrast McDaniels's defense with Saddiq Bey's. Bey is athletic for college, but not an elite athlete. Quick feet, though, and stays in front of guys. Bey plays extremely heady defense. He doesn't garner a lot of steals, but he gets tons of deflections. Overplaying the passing lanes gets you highlights, but can also hang your teammates out to dry. You don't see him do that. So I have a ton of confidence that Bey will be a really good NBA defender, and potentially an elite 3&D forward.

McDaniels makes a lot of great looking plays, because he's 6'10" with a 7' wingspan, quick, fast, and springy. So you'll see some great looking blocked shots and steals. But overall I'm skeptical about how he performs defensively at the next level. I think a lot of it depends on where he ends up. If he ends up on a team with a strong defensive culture, like Milwaukee, Boston, or Miami, this is probably less of a concern. But if he ends up on the Knicks I think he becomes an empty numbers guy in the NBA.
McDaniels sounds like lottery talent with maturity issues.

They’re in awe of the Washington Huskies freshman forward’s physical gifts, including a 6-foot-9 frame and a 7-foot-7 wingspan.

@nighthob Is that true?

 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
His last semi-official measurement (around 18 months ago) had him at 6'8" with a 6'10" wingspan and 8'11" standing reach. So, no, they don't have that right. The rumors are that he's 6'10" with a 7' wingspan, which passes the eye test.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,417
I've been wasting waaaaay too much time today watching game footage of McDaniels, and on watching it I'm not sure he makes it out of the teens. The skinny factor/problem is there. But he's plenty quick/athletic enough to play the perimeter full time (much easier to project in this regard than Pokusevski). He's a creative shotmaker, that's for sure, with a good handle for someone 6'10".

He finishes through contact at the college level. Meaning that he has good functional strength (like Tatum). He's also springy and that helps him finish strong. He's also not a bad passer in the drive & kick game. He really does look like a poor man's Durant.

My problem is the defense. I made this remark about him earlier, but post-Wiggins I'm skeptical of college defenders that let their length/athleticism do the work for them. Six years ago I loved Wiggins' D because when you watched the tape he was willing to take the tough covers and got results.

None of it translated to the NBA. When you went back and rewatched, you saw that he used his overwhelming physical advantages on guys he was covering, but that was doing all the work. He never imposed himself on people. Contrast that with Marcus, he was 6'3" in his bare feet with good length (6'9" wingspan if I recall). Athletic, but not dominant like Wiggins. But he always imposes himself on other players. Even Joel Embiid for stretches. When the athletic abilities of the competition caught up with Smart, he kept playing elite D. Wiggins, by contrast, just shrugged it off. When he coud no longer dominate physically he just went through the motions.

So in 2020 I contrast McDaniels's defense with Saddiq Bey's. Bey is athletic for college, but not an elite athlete. Quick feet, though, and stays in front of guys. Bey plays extremely heady defense. He doesn't garner a lot of steals, but he gets tons of deflections. Overplaying the passing lanes gets you highlights, but can also hang your teammates out to dry. You don't see him do that. So I have a ton of confidence that Bey will be a really good NBA defender, and potentially an elite 3&D forward.

McDaniels makes a lot of great looking plays, because he's 6'10" with a 7' wingspan, quick, fast, and springy. So you'll see some great looking blocked shots and steals. But overall I'm skeptical about how he performs defensively at the next level. I think a lot of it depends on where he ends up. If he ends up on a team with a strong defensive culture, like Milwaukee, Boston, or Miami, this is probably less of a concern. But if he ends up on the Knicks I think he becomes an empty numbers guy in the NBA.
This sums it up really well. He’s consistently struck me as a sum-is-less-than-the-parts guy. He’ll look great in an empty gym or a pickup game, but if he’s the guy he was supposed to be, why did that team finish last in the PAC 10? Especially when he had a NBA-level big playing next to him doing the dirty work. Its a red flag when blue chip talents fail to win at the college level despite playing on talented teams.

I wasn’t a big fan of his brother, and while Jaden’s definitely more talented, they are fairly similar. I think he has the same 10 cent head for basketball as Jalen, if not his same off-the-court shitheadery.

I can definitely see him putting up numbers on bad teams, but there is undeniably talent there, so maybe if he gets into a great developmental situation, he learns how to contribute to winning. I don’t think Ainge drafts him at 14 if he doesn’t get some encouraging intel on his makeup- that’s just not how Danny rolls- so at least if we do pick him, that in of itself is reason for hope.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
Yeah, if Boston were gambling on him at 26, I’d be fine with it. He definitely has big time offensive talent, but there’s also something missing there. Milwaukee might be a good landing spot for McDaniels given the pending departure of Giannis. They have a strong enough defensive culture that they might be able to get him in line and develop him for their future.

My current hope is that Hampton floats down to 14. Working with Mike Miller to fix his shot is real encouraging sign. RJ Hampton with a jumper is a potential all star. Especially as a lead guard that can’t be hunted on D.

Next up I’m going down the Josh Green rabbit hole to start tackling YouTube game footage. I liked his highlight reels, now it’s time to see the available game tape.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,373
Santa Monica
@nighthob
any thoughts on 22yr old Mason Jones, the 6'5" Arkansas guard (NBA body)?

Co-SEC POY (with Quickley)
SEC rank: Scoring (1st), Rebounding (20th), Assists (10th) & Steals (6th)

Led team in Pts, Reb, Steals & Assists

Avg 22pts/gm. (23.6pts/gm in SEC, highest-scoring avg over the last decade)

Led the NCAA in FTA & FTM do guards do that often? Most FTs made in SEC games over the last 40yrs
Jones also hung 40pts on Okoro/Auburn

Age and his 35% shooting from 3s are not ideal but at 47 not bad value

He's the type of Undrafted FA that shows up in Toronto next season and becomes part of Nurse's rotation

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18B4gb3h2cY

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulVoJ4B9Vuo


 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,089
I had no idea Duncan's G-League stats last year were so absurd.

The other strange thing about DR is he's 26.

Duncan’s entire body of work is unique. We’ve seen guys from overseas have these bizarre journeys to make it in the league but Duncan’s is in the .0001 if American kids to go from New Hampshire high school, to D3 Williams College down the road, to Michigan, to the Heat and to the NBA Finals in the snap of a finger.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,417
@nighthob
any thoughts on 22yr old Mason Jones, the 6'5" Arkansas guard (NBA body)?

Co-SEC POY (with Quickley)
SEC rank: Scoring (1st), Rebounding (20th), Assists (10th) & Steals (6th)

Led team in Pts, Reb, Steals & Assists

Avg 22pts/gm. (23.6pts/gm in SEC, highest-scoring avg over the last decade)

Led the NCAA in FTA & FTM do guards do that often? Most FTs made in SEC games over the last 40yrs
Jones also hung 40pts on Okoro/Auburn

Age and his 35% shooting from 3s are not ideal but at 47 not bad value

He's the type of Undrafted FA that shows up in Toronto next season and becomes part of Nurse's rotation
Ha, yeah, I could see that. Hob wrote about him in post #435, I was surprised that he likes him more than Isaiah Joe. He’s pretty old and really unathletic, and he’s at his best as a crafty high usage scorer, so maybe a potential bench piece, but limited starter equity. He completely reworked his body, lost like 60 pounds or something.

You’re into the PoY guys- but I really think the best bet for the later picks is the ACC PoY. Hob’s right, Hampton with a jumper has All Star potential, but Tre Jones with a jumper is a rock solid NBA PG who’s a great fit for this team, and Tre apparently works on his game as hard as anyone.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,373
Santa Monica
Ha, yeah, I could see that. Hob wrote about him in post #435, I was surprised that he likes him more than Isaiah Joe. He’s pretty old and really unathletic, and he’s at his best as a crafty high usage scorer, so maybe a potential bench piece, but limited starter equity. He completely reworked his body, lost like 60 pounds or something.

You’re into the PoY guys- but I really think the best bet for the later picks is the ACC PoY. Hob’s right, Hampton with a jumper has All Star potential, but Tre Jones with a jumper is a rock solid NBA PG who’s a great fit for this team, and Tre apparently works on his game as hard as anyone.
Tre Jones probably goes in the first round. At 30 he'd be a nice get

Ha, I do have a penchant for SEC POYs: Grant, Quickley, now Jones... it's a highly competitive conf where coaches will scheme to stop those "star" players from doing/getting what they want. Yet those 3 players delivered all season long. Okoro has scouts doing cartwheels about his defense, yet Jones was a 1-man wrecking crew against Auburn. Your right about the massive weight loss (like Grant), that indicates to me a willingness to put in the work/dedication. If I squint hard I could see Mason's ceiling being Eric Gordon
 
Last edited:

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,417
Tre Jones probably goes in the first round. At 30 he'd be a nice get

Ha, I do have a penchant for SEC POYs: Grant, Quickley, now Jones... it's a highly competitive conf where coaches will scheme to stop those "star" players from doing/getting what they want. Yet those 3 players delivered all season long. Okoro has scouts doing cartwheels about his defense, yet Jones was a 1-man wrecking crew against Auburn. Your right about the massive weight loss (like Grant), that indicates to me a willingness to put in the work/dedication. If I squint hard I could see Mason's ceiling being Eric Gordon
His free throw rate is wild for a guy as lacking explosion as he is, at a Butlerian FTr = .668, translating to about 10.7 attempts per 40. That indicates some serious craft.

His college shot profile does look pretty similar to Gordon’s at Indiana:

EG =.489 3PAr and .652 FTr
MJ = .460 3PAr and .668 FTr
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
@nighthob
any thoughts on 22yr old Mason Jones, the 6'5" Arkansas guard (NBA body)?

Co-SEC POY (with Quickley)
SEC rank: Scoring (1st), Rebounding (20th), Assists (10th) & Steals (6th)

Led team in Pts, Reb, Steals & Assists

Avg 22pts/gm. (23.6pts/gm in SEC, highest-scoring avg over the last decade)

Led the NCAA in FTA & FTM do guards do that often? Most FTs made in SEC games over the last 40yrs
Jones also hung 40pts on Okoro/Auburn

Age and his 35% shooting from 3s are not ideal but at 47 not bad value

He's the type of Undrafted FA that shows up in Toronto next season and becomes part of Nurse's rotation
Part of the reason he shoots 35% from three is because he shoots a lot of them from absurd distances. I suspect because he's trying to get some daylight to shoot (given how much attention he drew defensively). I think that he has a bright future as that end of the bench guy you throw in there to get buckets with the upside of being an end of the rotation player. He's a more creative scorer than Joe, though Joe is obviously the better shooter.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,500
Twin Cities
Duncan’s entire body of work is unique. We’ve seen guys from overseas have these bizarre journeys to make it in the league but Duncan’s is in the .0001 if American kids to go from New Hampshire high school, to D3 Williams College down the road, to Michigan, to the Heat and to the NBA Finals in the snap of a finger.
No kidding. They should make a movie some day. He’s like Rudy, only way better.
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2006
3,556
Atlanta, GA
That's the second mock draft in a week where I've seen Bolmaro to the Celtics. I get why he would be attractive as a draft-and-stash prospect (and that we're talking about a late first) but does the weight concern anyone? 6'7" and 180lbs? Can they get him on the Luka Twizzlers diet while he's playing in Spain?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,433
KOC has his latest mock draft
#14 Precious Achiuwa(Terry went #15, Bey went #16) He is #24 on his Big Board
#26 Leandro Bolmaro(#23 on the Big Board)
#30 Killian Tillie(#34 on the Big Board)

This is a really good writeup. Thanks for sharing. It would be really tough for me to pass on Nesmith if he's there at 14. I'd also be tempted to see if we could trade up to 9 to get Toppin. If you could hook him up to the Brad defensive machine, you'd have a really intriguing player.

I've watched Bolmaro and get the stash component but his lack of a jumper really concerns me. Would need to develop that or be surrounded by shooters to make it worth it. Tillie at 30 would be a nice pick and perfect risk/reward selection at that point.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
I’m not wild about Tillie as he looks like a depth big at best. Which isn’t bad for #30, I guess, but doesn’t make a lot of sense when you’re drafting a C like Achiuwa and then committing to a guy that won’t be in the NBA for a couple of seasons. They need at least some contribution from a 2020 draftee. And Tillie ain’t it.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,433
I’m not wild about Tillie as he looks like a depth big at best. Which isn’t bad for #30, I guess, but doesn’t make a lot of sense when you’re drafting a C like Achiuwa and then committing to a guy that won’t be in the NBA for a couple of seasons. They need at least some contribution from a 2020 draftee. And Tillie ain’t it.
Seems like the 2020 draftees are looking at 9th/10th man minutes at best when the team is fully healthy, which admittedly never seems to happen.

Theis
TL
Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Smart
Kemba
G. Williams
Langford

A vet or two probably gets added as well. It's why I think Nesmith at 14 makes a lot of sense. There is a real role for him right off the bat. Guys like Achiuwa/Tillie would not see much time outside of injuries. I agree that due to load management and injuries, we'll certainly need some regular season minutes from someone in this class.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
10,329
I'm big on Bey at #14. Outstanding shooter, good athlete, just the kind of player the Celtics need.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,433
I'm big on Bey at #14. Outstanding shooter, good athlete, just the kind of player the Celtics need.
Yeah, I like Bey too. If both he and Nesmith are there at 14, it wouldn't be an easy decision for me. Bey just feels like a Danny kind of guy. If I were making the call, I'd probably lean Nesmith because I think his shooting is more of a need.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
24,385
I’m not wild about Tillie as he looks like a depth big at best. Which isn’t bad for #30, I guess, but doesn’t make a lot of sense when you’re drafting a C like Achiuwa and then committing to a guy that won’t be in the NBA for a couple of seasons. They need at least some contribution from a 2020 draftee. And Tillie ain’t it.
I agree he doesn't make a lot of sense if you pick Achiuwa at 14. But if you go smaller at 14 then I think getting a play-now role big at 30 is fine, and Tillie has more upside than many who fit that profile. I disagree he wouldn't contribute in 2020 (well--I disagree that he couldn't, he has a pro-ready offensive game) though he'd be limited for sure by his defense and it all depends who they keep among bigs in terms of opportunity
 
Last edited:

oumbi

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2006
3,090
I’m not wild about Tillie as he looks like a depth big at best. Which isn’t bad for #30, I guess, but doesn’t make a lot of sense when you’re drafting a C like Achiuwa and then committing to a guy that won’t be in the NBA for a couple of seasons. They need at least some contribution from a 2020 draftee. And Tillie ain’t it.
Nighthob, what do you think about the Celtics taking Paul Reed at either 26 or 30? He doesn't have a 3 point shot right now, but his wingspan, rebounds, blocks, and steals indicate his defense might play well off the bench.
 
Last edited:

ColonelMustard

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2006
147
I'm big on Bey at #14. Outstanding shooter, good athlete, just the kind of player the Celtics need.
I was watching some scouting videos on Bey that spoke highly of his shooting form but to me it looked like more of heave with a slow release. He also has traditional left-right footwork but his right leg has a slight kick. I don't know if his shooting will translate into the NBA because of that. He may have to adjust for a higher release point with a faster release (At 6'10, his wingspan is impressive so this may not be the case). I'm likely a minority viewpoint on this as he had a 3 point shooting percentage of 45% on approx. 6 attempts per game. I'd like to hear from those of you who have more experience. Bey's defense, though, is outstanding (++). He is fast, athletic and aggressive.

Yeah, I like Bey too. If both he and Nesmith are there at 14, it wouldn't be an easy decision for me. Bey just feels like a Danny kind of guy. If I were making the call, I'd probably lean Nesmith because I think his shooting is more of a need.
I'm more enamored by Nesmith. He has a high release point, great footwork, and is just an amazing shooter. Great ball fakes, step backs, 1,2 dribble pull-ups and great court awareness. He's does not appear to be very explosive and needs to improve his dribbling/ball handling. Shooting is hard to teach and I can see Nesmith absolutely torching opposing teams as a 6th man off the bench.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
2,248
Cultural hub of the universe
I'm more enamored by Nesmith. He has a high release point, great footwork, and is just an amazing shooter. Great ball fakes, step backs, 1,2 dribble pull-ups and great court awareness. He's does not appear to be very explosive and needs to improve his dribbling/ball handling. Shooting is hard to teach and I can see Nesmith absolutely torching opposing teams as a 6th man off the bench.
More athletic than Duncan Robinson though, eh? Great shooting can carry you a long way, especially at his size.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,433
I'm more enamored by Nesmith. He has a high release point, great footwork, and is just an amazing shooter. Great ball fakes, step backs, 1,2 dribble pull-ups and great court awareness. He's does not appear to be very explosive and needs to improve his dribbling/ball handling. Shooting is hard to teach and I can see Nesmith absolutely torching opposing teams as a 6th man off the bench.
Agreed. I’ve settled on Nesmith since I think he would be great playing off of the Jay’s and a nice complement to Romeo on the 2nd unit. That jumper is just so pure.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
Nighthob, what do you think about the Celtics taking Paul Reed at either 26 or 30? He doesn't have a 3 point shot right now, but his wingspan, rebounds, blocks, and steals indicate his defense might play well off the bench.
Paul Reed, like Saddiq Bey, needs to work on that jump shot. But he has some real upside as a rotation big. Much quicker than Tillie, and I love those hands (lightning quick, he’s going to frustrate a lot of scorers slapping balls away). He looks thin, so I’m not sure he gets much past his present 220. If he can reach 240 he can be the next Theis.

I'm big on Bey at #14. Outstanding shooter, good athlete, just the kind of player the Celtics need.
This next poster gets it. I absolutely love Saddiq Bey’s defense. He’s not an elite athlete, but he has fantastic footwork and takes very clean lines to the ball (he’s the Jackie Bradley Jr of 3&D forwards). But the jumper needs work if he’s going to hit his 1% projection. He’s learned to be effective with the form, but the release is too slow and the release point too low. Right now he’s strictly a wide open catch & shoot guy. But, again, Larranaga fixed Marcus’s jumper, I’m sure he can clean up Bey’s form.

I was watching some scouting videos on Bey that spoke highly of his shooting form but to me it looked like more of heave with a slow release. He also has traditional left-right footwork but his right leg has a slight kick. I don't know if his shooting will translate into the NBA because of that. He may have to adjust for a higher release point with a faster release (At 6'10, his wingspan is impressive so this may not be the case). I'm likely a minority viewpoint on this as he had a 3 point shooting percentage of 45% on approx. 6 attempts per game. I'd like to hear from those of you who have more experience. Bey's defense, though, is outstanding (++). He is fast, athletic and aggressive.
I’m with you on this, if he can improve the shooting form he’s potentially an elite 3&D F, which has real value to Boston at #14.

Seems like the 2020 draftees are looking at 9th/10th man minutes at best when the team is fully healthy, which admittedly never seems to happen.

Theis
TL
Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Smart
Kemba
G. Williams
Langford

A vet or two probably gets added as well. It's why I think Nesmith at 14 makes a lot of sense. There is a real role for him right off the bat. Guys like Achiuwa/Tillie would not see much time outside of injuries. I agree that due to load management and injuries, we'll certainly need some regular season minutes from someone in this class.
Given the payroll issues I doubt they sign any vets. 100% of that pay is luxury tax money, so don’t expect any vets not named Wanamaker to be signed this offseason. Hampton is atop my wish list at #14 because he has real upside as a lead guard. If he’s gone then Nesmith and Saddiq Bey are atop my wish list. Nesmith’s jumper is pure fire, there are real defensive issues there, but he looks like a poor man’s Klay Thompson.

Guys who might be able to contribute as a rookie role player:

14 - Nesmith, S. Bey, Jalen Smith, Haliburton (move up)
26/30 - Tillman, Woodard, Bane, Trey Jones.

Any you'd add?
He has real washout potential, but I’d add Jaden McDaniels to the 26/30 list. Offensively he looks like a poor man’s Kevin Durant. He needs a ton of body work. But he has a great handle for a 6’10” guy. He’s an erratic shooter, but given his height/wingspan combination and the high release point on his jumper the shot’s unblockable. There’s a lot for Larranaga to work with.

That being said he’s an asshole and malingerer and you’re betting on the Celtics clubhouse culture really taking. If you can get through to him he’s got all star upside. Then again he just might monkey around with the jumper and develop a mysterious shoulder injury.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,417
Nesmith and S.Bey profile to be solid, if limited, complimentary players. Nesmith is elite at movement shooting, which is tremendously valuable, but he's pretty bad at everything else on offense. He's an upgrade over Semi, for sure, particularly with his movement. Bey's game is more rounded, and he's the better and more versatile defender. They're both decent wing prospects who should be able to stay on the floor in the playoffs and provide line-up versatility and offensive spacing.

But longer term, the guy I want to attach to Jaylen and Jayson's primes is Kira Lewis. He'll be 23 when Kemba's deal expires. A true PG with great speed and athleticism, excellent handles, good vision, good shooting mechanics, plus he's a solid defender with toughness and decent length who had elite production at a young age in a good conference. He's wiry, but he's young, he'll add some bulk. He's already like a smaller version of what people hope RJ Hampton develops into (although his standing reach is actually taller, but he definitely doesn’t have RJ’s verticality to his game), and they're basically the same age.

If he does become what I think he can turn into, a Lewis/Smart/Jaylen/Jayson core with Grant and Xavier Tillman (or cheap versatile bigs of your choice) is an amazing core.
 
Last edited:

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
47,114
deep inside Guido territory

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,417
I don't think Fultz ever had a good looking shot. Odd that this just comes up now, when no one mentioned it as a concern all season long.
I must be missing the sarcasm, but if the black swan event that was Fultz’s jumper going haywire leads to Devin Vassel slipping to the Celtics based on a 15 second clip of him shooting two 28 footers, it truly will be the trade that keeps on giving.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,330
I must be missing the sarcasm, but if the black swan event that was Fultz’s jumper going haywire leads to Devin Vassel slipping to the Celtics based on a 15 second clip of him shooting two 28 footers, it truly will be the trade that keeps on giving.
Technically speaking that's the Jeff Green trade(s). But that new form is seriously fugly.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
7,084
NYC
I must be missing the sarcasm, but if the black swan event that was Fultz’s jumper going haywire leads to Devin Vassel slipping to the Celtics based on a 15 second clip of him shooting two 28 footers, it truly will be the trade that keeps on giving.
Assuming his shot is not actually broken. I doubt it is, though his career 72% FT in college does give at least mild pause about his potential as a lights-out shooter, which is/was one of his biggest selling points as a top 6 or 7 type player.

Fwiw, that one clip was enough to get me off the GS “trade down for Vassell?” train I was riding for a couple days and back onto “don’t overthink it — grab Wiseman.” But that’s partly cos I’m sellable on like 15 different guys as the likely best player in this draft, so easily swayed by the slightest breeze of new data.
 
Last edited:

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,417
Technically speaking that's the Jeff Green trade(s). But that new form is seriously fugly.
Well, I’m making the (probably unfounded) assumption that Fultz doesn’t break without the Celtics-Sixers trade, and even less-founded assumption that Vassell slips due to concerns of a Fultz redux.

The jumper is really bad, and it is a bit shocking to see, but if the Fultzing of Markelle never happened, I don’t think there’s much concern about a clip of two long jumpers. Tinkering with a jump shot predraft is crazy in most cases, so I really don’t get what’s going on here, but tinkering can typically be undone except where the tinkeree has the mental makeup of an adolescent field mouse. I think Devin will be fine. Maybe get a new trainer though.
 
Last edited: