Red Sox Deadline Discussion
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It was right about now two years ago where I said to my friends who are Yankees fans who were howling in delight at the Bobby V era that the Red Sox are going to win another world series before the Yankees do.
I was asked how drunk I was.
I'll say it again, no matter what the situation looks like now, I believe in the baseball ops and even in ownership that they will put together another championship run before the Yankees do.
I'm not worried. We are going to be alright. And as good as our top 10 prospects are right now, it's going to get even better in 48 hours.
We are going to spend and nurture the kids. relax and enjoy the next 48 hours as best you can. And thanks to Jon for everything. We'll pay him the proper respects in his own thread soon.
I was asked how drunk I was.
I'll say it again, no matter what the situation looks like now, I believe in the baseball ops and even in ownership that they will put together another championship run before the Yankees do.
I'm not worried. We are going to be alright. And as good as our top 10 prospects are right now, it's going to get even better in 48 hours.
We are going to spend and nurture the kids. relax and enjoy the next 48 hours as best you can. And thanks to Jon for everything. We'll pay him the proper respects in his own thread soon.
2014 Manny would still be a middle of the order bat on this team... how is this possible?Curll said:
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They fundamentally aren't going to invest long term in players in their 30's, even if it means 3-39 for the Dempster's of the world - I have never really heard of a franchise in any sport doing this, but at least John Henry is going to put his money where his mouth is - he believes this and he's putting it into place.
Personally I think it's crazy but I do understand it.
Personally I think it's crazy but I do understand it.
I don't think it's fair to panic about the Lester trade until the signs with someone else. If the Sox get some good prospects for him, then manage to re-sign him, the FO will deserve praise. That's the best-case scenario as things currently stand, but I don't think it's unrealistic.
That said, if next year's starting rotation winds up being Buchholz and a bunch of kids (assuming Lackey also gets traded), there's going to be trouble.
That said, if next year's starting rotation winds up being Buchholz and a bunch of kids (assuming Lackey also gets traded), there's going to be trouble.
As a Rockies fan, I can complain about cheap ownership. As a Sox fan, I don't, and neither should you...mikeford said:
DrewDawg said:
Show me how they can be good in 2015 without gutting the farm system or giving out contracts at least as large as they won't give Lester.
4 6 3 DP said:
This brings up a great point, one of the best things about John Henry as an owner was that he didn't get all that involved in running baseball ops. If this "No long term contracts that carry players into their mid-30s" edict is his decision based on SABR stuff, that is a very big change in the way this team has been run as a hybrid stats and scouting organization over the past decade plus.
I agree. My real point was to endorse another poster's belief that this is likely to be a tougher and longer slog than fans realize, and perhaps even than the FO realizes. And there is likely to be significant backlash when this materializes. You cannot sell young, exciting and unsuccessful for long, especially with the highest ticket prices in MLB.Stitch01 said:
P'tucket said:
How likely was it that they would go into 2014 with no viable back-up CF or RF, or move X to 3B so they could plug Drew into an already-scuffling lineup? At this point, a Buchholz + the kids rotation seems about as likely as them adding Lester and Masterson and trading for Stanton. This FO has proven itself wholly unpredictable.
What could the Sox expect to get if they shipped both Uehara and Miller to a team that had a need and plenty of prospects??
StuckOnYouk said:
Based on the Soria trade, a good deal would involve the Sox getting a top 10 prospect and a low-minors lotto ticket. My understanding, from the information being leaked to the media, is that the Sox intend to keep Koji with either the QO or a multi-year (2?) extension.
Whoops, I misread your post. Spitballing, I'd assume they would be better off trading them separately. I don't think a team with a good farm system is going to be willing to trade two top ten prospects or one top three prospect for two rental relievers. So I'd reason that the collective return would be higher if they were to move them to different teams and acquire a top ten prospect and lotto ticket from two organizations. But that is just 100% speculation.
It depends on he direction we take. Are we going with a super young staff, Bradley in CF and Marrero at SS and Vazquez behind the plate? If so its a bridge year and Koji can bring back additional assets. What I'd like to have seen over the past few weeks is RDLR in the 8th inning role to see if his stuff plays as well out of the pen as I feel it may. He could be your next closer which then would have allowed us to easily move Koji.sackamano said:
I think RDLR's stuff plays well as a starter. Still some refining to do, but he has a 3.64 era and a 1.29 whip. The ERA is solid; the WHIP is acceptable. Just 25 years old. I think there's every reason to think that he'll be a solid MLB starter.
I'd rather have the closer's job be someone who can't succeed as a starter. If, say, Barnes can't eventually get to where we all hope he can be (#2 starter), then his stuff probably plays great in a dominant closer's role. Two (and only two) plus pitches. Heck, maybe Hembree is the future closer.
I'd rather have the closer's job be someone who can't succeed as a starter. If, say, Barnes can't eventually get to where we all hope he can be (#2 starter), then his stuff probably plays great in a dominant closer's role. Two (and only two) plus pitches. Heck, maybe Hembree is the future closer.
Regarding the A's seemingly-late entrance into the Lester sweepstakes, and the fact that they've already sent their best young players to the Cubs, AmFox over at SoxProspects wondered if this is the sort of deal that might be in the works:
Not bad, actually. It's not nearly as ideal as getting a Bell or Meadows from the Pirates, but it wouldn't be a complete bag of shit either.
Pomeranz had put up a .199/.278/.309/.587 line and 1.88 ERA in his first 7 starts for OAK before getting shelled (7 ER, 3.2 IP) on June 16. Turns out he'd pitched that game with a broken right (non-throwing) hand, and went on the DL the next day. He's made 4 rehab starts in AAA since July 12, and in his last two (7/22, 7/27) he yielded just 3 ER on 15 H, 4 BB & 13 K over 14 IP in the offense-happy PCL. If he remains in MLB once activated, he'd still have one minor league option left. A healthy Pomeranz would make including Owens in any Stanton trade a lot more palatable.
And Adam's absolutely right about the gap in Sox talent at high-A right now. Salem is a wasteland once you get past Carlos Asuaje (and perhaps Reed Gragnani & Jantzen Witte).
Not bad, actually. It's not nearly as ideal as getting a Bell or Meadows from the Pirates, but it wouldn't be a complete bag of shit either.
Pomeranz had put up a .199/.278/.309/.587 line and 1.88 ERA in his first 7 starts for OAK before getting shelled (7 ER, 3.2 IP) on June 16. Turns out he'd pitched that game with a broken right (non-throwing) hand, and went on the DL the next day. He's made 4 rehab starts in AAA since July 12, and in his last two (7/22, 7/27) he yielded just 3 ER on 15 H, 4 BB & 13 K over 14 IP in the offense-happy PCL. If he remains in MLB once activated, he'd still have one minor league option left. A healthy Pomeranz would make including Owens in any Stanton trade a lot more palatable.
And Adam's absolutely right about the gap in Sox talent at high-A right now. Salem is a wasteland once you get past Carlos Asuaje (and perhaps Reed Gragnani & Jantzen Witte).
Thanks, 'dog.
Obviously, I'd take the package with the highest value prospect and the highest aggregate value, if possible. But OAK is intriguing because my sense is that Beane isn't getting involved to walk away - in other words, if he's involved, knowing that his system is fairly weak after the Samardjiza deal, he's going to sell out the farm to close the deal. I'm not sold that LAD, STL or PIT will pull the trigger on a deal involving a top-50 prospect at the end of the day.
Only two of soxprospects.com's top 30 prospects are position players in full season A-ball (Margot and Rijo) and both are in Greenville.
Obviously, I'd take the package with the highest value prospect and the highest aggregate value, if possible. But OAK is intriguing because my sense is that Beane isn't getting involved to walk away - in other words, if he's involved, knowing that his system is fairly weak after the Samardjiza deal, he's going to sell out the farm to close the deal. I'm not sold that LAD, STL or PIT will pull the trigger on a deal involving a top-50 prospect at the end of the day.
Only two of soxprospects.com's top 30 prospects are position players in full season A-ball (Margot and Rijo) and both are in Greenville.
Not if we're trading Lester and Lackey. That team isn't winning so you may as well trade the 40-yo reliever too. If you get a lot of surprising performances and are in the hunt you can always find relievers for cheap. They're not going to be as good as Koji, but I don't think Koji is going to be that good either.sackamano said:
Put another way, Koji is an enormous trade chip and isn't going to be useful beyond another year or two if he stays, and even if he does stay, he's only valuable to a contender. It's incongruous to be shopping every other veteran and not the oldest one with maybe the highest ratio of present-to-future value.
mabrowndog said:
This would be the most depressing deal in the world. Who the hell cares about how stocked the single A team is. This is Jon Lester. Sure all of that is better then a compensation pick but lets not pretend Pomeranz isn't what he is. A lefty Beane is trying to rehabilitate after his Colorado disaster when he was acquired as the centerpiece of the Ubaldo deal with cleveland if I remember correctly.
This is the type of trade that might pass muster for die hard fans but the Red Sox would get brutalized by pretty much everyone else. Plus when was the last time Beane gave up tons of value without walking away looking like the smarter man ? Hasn't happened often.
They need a young bat who can contribute next year. Period end of story.
My thoughts on realistic packages for Lester:
STL - they could end this quickly with a package of Piscotty, Martinez and the comp pick (Round A, #2). I don't care what reports are out there, STL is the lead dog in this race IMO.
LAD - their issue is, besides Pederson and Seager, they don't have a position player prospect of significance. I think trading for a heavily subsidized Kemp makes sense, but it's likely too complicated for this compressed time frame. Therefore, I think a deal like Lester/Breslow for Pederson makes the most sense. My gut is that LAD won't pull the trigger on Lester and are more likely to swing a smaller deal for other Red Sox pieces.
PIT - I sense that they will eventually come to their senses and give up a top 5 prospect. I viewed the planted article as posturing at best. PIT has too many OF prospects at the majors and high minors to be unwilling to trade one. A Bell+ or Marte+ deal makes some sense.
SEA - my package begins and ends with DJ Peterson. No Peterson, no wasting time. Jack Z is notoriously difficult to deal with, and I don't have time to cater to him in an auction context. If they want to trade Walker or Paxton+, great, but I'm not counting on it. I note that SEA has a Round B comp pick (#3)
OAK - as noted above, OAK is intriguing because of Beane's ability to get deals done. I'm sure he has the go-ahead from ownership to go for it this year, which makes Lester a perfect acquisition for them. 'dog noted my initial thought last night once the news broke and I could wrap my arms around their system. Unlike the other offers, this would be a quantity-over-quality deal, with the comp pick (Round B, #2) as a backstop.
Not listing BAL, TOR, KC or MIL, as various reports have them on the outside, looking in.
STL - they could end this quickly with a package of Piscotty, Martinez and the comp pick (Round A, #2). I don't care what reports are out there, STL is the lead dog in this race IMO.
LAD - their issue is, besides Pederson and Seager, they don't have a position player prospect of significance. I think trading for a heavily subsidized Kemp makes sense, but it's likely too complicated for this compressed time frame. Therefore, I think a deal like Lester/Breslow for Pederson makes the most sense. My gut is that LAD won't pull the trigger on Lester and are more likely to swing a smaller deal for other Red Sox pieces.
PIT - I sense that they will eventually come to their senses and give up a top 5 prospect. I viewed the planted article as posturing at best. PIT has too many OF prospects at the majors and high minors to be unwilling to trade one. A Bell+ or Marte+ deal makes some sense.
SEA - my package begins and ends with DJ Peterson. No Peterson, no wasting time. Jack Z is notoriously difficult to deal with, and I don't have time to cater to him in an auction context. If they want to trade Walker or Paxton+, great, but I'm not counting on it. I note that SEA has a Round B comp pick (#3)
OAK - as noted above, OAK is intriguing because of Beane's ability to get deals done. I'm sure he has the go-ahead from ownership to go for it this year, which makes Lester a perfect acquisition for them. 'dog noted my initial thought last night once the news broke and I could wrap my arms around their system. Unlike the other offers, this would be a quantity-over-quality deal, with the comp pick (Round B, #2) as a backstop.
Not listing BAL, TOR, KC or MIL, as various reports have them on the outside, looking in.
Interesting to note that many teams may be in this as much to keep Lester away from the competition as to have him for themselves. In reality, there are a lot of teams involved and that can only be good for Boston.
I would think that the Dodgers, given how long it's been since they've won it all, would be the team most desperate to have him. PIttsburgh hasn't won it in a long time too, but being a smaller market team, they've kind of gotten used to that. Though maybe now that they have gotten a whiff of success, they feel like this is their moment. Hard to say.
I would think that the Dodgers, given how long it's been since they've won it all, would be the team most desperate to have him. PIttsburgh hasn't won it in a long time too, but being a smaller market team, they've kind of gotten used to that. Though maybe now that they have gotten a whiff of success, they feel like this is their moment. Hard to say.
jimbobim said:
We love Jon Lester. He's wonderful. We wish he was staying on acceptable terms.
But ...
Lester is hellbent on going to free agency. That may or may not have been the case had the Red Sox made a better offer in spring training. The Red Sox have flagged, for whatever reason, that they are not going to pay market value for him. Lester's camp has flagged, for whatever reason, that he's not going to sign for less than market value. Period. Whatever romantic notions of Lester we all have, that's where we are.
Therefore, our options are to take the comp pick (approx. #30) or trade him for value in excess of the comp pick. The organization appears to be running a competent auction for Lester's services for the next two months and appears to be lucky that no other Lester alternative (read: Price/Hamels) is currently available on the trade market.
The organization's job is to maximize the value of the asset. You want to whine about shiny toys and whatnot, be my guest. I also want the shiny toy, but by 4pm tomorrow, I'm pulling the trigger on the best deal in excess of the comp pick. Period end of story.
amfox1 said:
Not going to get into a personal pissing match but as you just listed in your realistic "packages" the A's one would be by far the lowest on the totem pole. As for "shiny toy" the team has a glut of prospects in AAA and AA and are trading a pitcher whose value is crimped by being a "rental".
If they're not creative enough to package Lester and any of their other pieces for anything closer to big league ready then the pu pu platter of A's leftover from Theo's haul the whining will be far louder then just me.
Also this is a team thats leaked to multiple outlets that the price is AT LEAST 1 premium prospect. So while billy beane might hope cherington takes the quantity over quality package cherington seems to have telegraphed what his expectations are.
jimbobim said:
The OAK package was last on my list. I already expressed my thoughts on OAK's value vis-a-vis deals with top 50 prospects.
Whiners gonna whine. I can't worry about that. I've been assessing the prospect pools of these organizations for a few days; I'll take my thoughts over someone who cannot tell the difference among Joc Pederson, Barry Pederson, DJ Peterson and Adrian Peterson.
Just because the Red Sox have leaked something doesn't make it happen in real life. If that were the case, Lester would have signed for 4/$70mm in spring training. Everybody and their grandmothers are leaking stories about this deal. You think PIT's story about not trading a top six prospect is sacrosanct? Just playing the game.
It's not even all that terrible a package. I'd hope we could get a better final piece that Sanburn, and I'd prefer most of the other packages that fox talks about but it's not like we wouldn't be getting some really talented players back in the A's deal, they're just much further away.
amfox1 said:
First piece of a Lester trade (Puig is the second), greatest trade in Bruins history,New Mexico legend, miracle healee?
What do I win?
jimbobim said:
Future trade partners of the Red Sox might care. Such as the Rays, who this winter (or 18 months from now) will be looking for a haul if they decide to move Stanton. Boston can't hoard dozens of AAA and AA studs in all their deadline deals right now, as that could make it rather difficult to protect all of their Rule 5-eligible talent in advance of this December's draft. You get 40 slots for the major league phase, then 38 at AAA and 37 at AA for the minor league phases.
Also, as awesome as it is to read the same reactive rants and hyperbole over and over, you really might want to consider taking a Valium.
mabrowndog said:
Please kindly descend from your high horse . SOSH is enjoyable because its a place to talk intelligently with other Red Sox fans. At the trade deadline it is especially entertaining and with constantly new information yes I react and my posts are far from "same" or "hyperbolic". Most of the time I cite to other information or baseball sources
Here's more sedate version for you : The A's system is generally considered to be very low on talent after the Shark deal. I'd strongly prefer another team.
Toe Nash said:
The early returns from 2014 also seem to be better than 2013 as well. Sam Travis and Danny Mars look like they may be ready to start next year in Salem. Travis isn't drawing walks like he did in college yet, but I assume that will come as he settles in. It's not usually a skill that vanishes between those two levels.
Just noticed Travis is really young too; he doesn't turn 21 until late August, meaning he'll play all next year as a 21 year old too.
Plympton91 said:
My early projection of Portland is not good, though.
C: Carson Blair
1B: David Chester
2B: Reed Gragnani
SS: Mike Miller
3B: Carlos Asuaje
LF: Jonathan Roof
CF: Henry Ramos
RF: Keury de la Cruz
DH: Kevin Heller
ivanvamp said:
I think they will look to acquire Lee and sign one of Shields/Iwakuma. They'll be fine.
jimbobim said:
So would Ben and the rest of us. If we can get a top-50 prospect, we should do so. If we cannot, we should get what we can. In any case, we should only trade Lester if we can exceed the value of a comp pick.
There is a reality here, which is that this is a negotiation and teams don't want to give up their best prospects for 11-12 regular season starts, plus the playoffs. Maybe they will, at the end of the day, but we have to deal with the possibility that they don't. My proposed deals have tried to deal with that possibility. If STL gives up Taveras, it's an easy deal to make. Presumably, if STL had made that offer, the deal would already be done.
