After an excellent spring training, Pavano jumped up to Double-A in 1996 at the age of 20, going 16-5, 2.63 with a 146/47 K/BB in 185 innings, 154 hits allowed. That's a lot of innings for a 20 year old, but there was less attention paid to pitch counts and workload 14 years ago. Pavano's statistical performance was excellent, and scouts gave his slider and changeup above average marks, also liking his solid command of his 90-92 MPH fastball. He was rated the Number Five prospect in the Eastern League by
Baseball America, behind Vlad Guerrero,
Scott Rolen,
Jamey Wright, and Luis Castillo. I was highly impressed with him, giving him a Grade B+ and ranking him as the Number Four pitching prospect in baseball.
1997 got off to a slow start; he missed the first few weeks of the season with biceps tendinitis. Once he took the mound in May, he continued rolling along at Triple-A Pawtucket in 1997, going 11-6, 3.12 with a 147/34 K/BB in 162 innings, 148 hits. His fastball was up to 94 MPH, he developed a good curve to go with his slider, and his changeup continued to improve. He was sent over the border to Montreal in the
Pedro Martinez trade, and was expected to be the young ace of the Expos staff for 1998. I gave him a Grade A- and rated him as the Number One pitching prospect in baseball entering '98, though I didn't give him a straight A due to concerns about his minor league workload and resultant injury risk.
Pavano had a decent rookie year for the Expos (4.21 ERA, 83/43 K/BB in 135 innings, 130 hits), but his pitching time was limited to 23 starts by injuries. Indeed, continued shoulder and elbow problems plagued him for years. He wasn't a bad pitcher when not in pain; indeed, he was quite good in 15 starts for the Expos in 2000 (3.06 ERA, 64/34 K/BB in 97 innings), but he just couldn't stay healthy, and he lost velocity on his fastball. His arm finally stabilized enough for him to make 32 starts for the
Florida Marlins in 2003 and 31 more in 2004, going 18-8, 3.00 in the latter season and earning a big free agent contact with the
Yankees for 2005.